The Tazawa Problem
By now it’s common knowledge among baseball fans that Junichi Tazawa has elected to forego a career in Nippon Pro Baseball and jump right in to an MLB organization. The Red Sox, Pirates, Braves, Mariners and Cubs have been publicly linked with Tazawa, with Boston considered the front runner to land him. Based on the hype he’s getting I’d expect him to get a contract in the first round draft pick range.
Tazawa’s announcement has predictably send a shock wave through Japanese baseball. Meetings are underway — so far the 12 NPB have met amongst themselves and with three amateur baseball bodies; and NPB commissioner Ryozo Kato is meeting with Bud Selig on September 16 in New York (correction 9/16: representatives from the two commissioners offices are meeting today, a meeting between the actual commissioners is on the cards for later). My impression is that the Japanese baseball institution is more intent on preventing this development from setting a precedent than it is blocking this individual player’s move to the US.
Much of the discussion seems to be around the uneven playing field between NPB and MLB teams in pursuit of Tazawa. Tazawa is subject to the NPB draft, while he’s eligible to sign as a free agent with MLB teams. This puts NPB at a considerable disadvantage: NPB teams can only offer draft picks a maximum bonus of about $1M, while MLB teams aren’t bound to a limit; NPB scouts are limited in when they can talk to amateur players while MLB scouts don’t have to comply to such limits. Like MLB, NPB has a draft system to try and fairly distribute talent among the teams. It would be a shame to see that effort undermined, and it seems worthwhile to revisit the rules for teams scouting players subject to the NPB draft.
It’s important to note that the news here is not necessarily the MLB interest, but that Tazawa has chosen to forgo the NPB draft. NPB and MLB have had an unwritten agreement in place since 1962 that prohibits MLB teams from signing Japanese NPB draft candidates, but that hasn’t stopped MLB teams from trying to sign top Japanese amateurs in the past. Tazawa is the first to accept the overtures. So while MLB teams have mostly honored the letter of the gentleman’s agreement, they haven’t entirely honored the spirit of it. It’s only now that a top talent has been lured away that the NPB institution is getting upset.
Another thing to consider is that each year MLB teams sign much of the top young amateur players out of Taiwan and Korea, and no one bats an eye. Why is that? MLB’s interest in the players from these countries is a validation of the talent that’s there, but I think it impedes the development of local leagues and deprives fans of seeing some of their countries’ top players compete in international competition. Japan has managed to retain its top talent and making them stars at home, which is one of the reasons NPB is a strong league.
Tim Dierkes included my comments that a Japanese team could go after a guy like Aaron Crow or Pedro Alvarez in his most recent post on the Tazawa situation. At this point it would be an obvious retaliation move but under the right circumstances it would make sense for both sides. The player would get a viable alternative to MLB — playing in Japan in front of tens of thousands of fans every night, for millions of dollars. The team would get a talented player that they could eventually send back to MLB via the posting system (Ramon Ramirez is a non-Japanese player who was developed and posted by the Hiroshima Carp).
Obviously there is a lot left to happen before the situation is resolved, but Tazawa has already gotten his name in the history books just by announcing his decision. This development might bring about change to bring NPB and MLB together, or it might drive them apart. I’m hoping for the former.
16/09/2008 at 12:13 am Permalink
Tazawa would probably have stayed in Japan in years past, but now with all the under the table money flushed out of the system (supposedly) after the Seibu scandal last season, signing with an MLB organization is much more financially lucrative. Despite the cap of $1m on rookie signings, first round draft picks routinely commanded several million dollars worth of under the table money (some times taking on other forms such as NPB organization shouldering a draftee’s parents million dollars debt, or giving his family a convenience store franchise, etc.)
Amateur ball in Japan such as the industrial league and independent leagues act as de facto minor league ball, except that players are not under NPB control. This is a big difference from MLB where thousands of players are under MLB control as opposed to NPB where only 840 players are under NPB control (70 per team). But the Japanese baseball worlds are silos where the pros, industrial leagues, independent leagues, college, and high school ball all operate separately and do not cooperate with each other, this is another problem for NPB. The gentleman’s agreement was NPB’s way of controlling players they don’t really have any control over. The superior business model of MLB is forcing NPB’s hand now and it’ll be interesting to see what comes out of all this.
16/09/2008 at 1:35 am Permalink
I think Simon is hitting the nail on the head. This forces the NPB to act. I don’t know what it’ll come up with, and I don’t see how it can compete with the MLB’s money power, but it’s not my job to decide. Signing a player like Crow or Alvarez is a nice fantasy, but realistically I can’t see a Japanese team paying guys that young anything close to what MLB teams are probably already getting ready to risk. Keep in mind both guys are prospects (esp Crow), not major league ready talents.
On another point I would disagree that it would be a shame to see the Japanese draft underminded. Japanese teams have signed 15 year olds out of Taiwan. I’d say that undermines the Taiwanese system. Not to mention every day baseball ethics.
16/09/2008 at 8:16 am Permalink
I definitely agree with both of you guys in that as a fan of the Japanese game, I hope this serves as a catalyst for change. Hopefully that change is something that involves more collaboration between MLB, NPB, KBO, and CNBL, and specifically more investment in player development on the NPB side.
The NPB draft system and it’s problems are a whole other issue that deserves it’s own debate. It’s certainly riddled with issues — I had forgotten about the Seibu scandal last year, but the Ichiba scandal comes to mind as another recent one. But I think it had been getting better. Once upon a time, a guy like Yu Darvish would have automatically gone to the Giants, rather than going to an also-ran he would help revive. That at least is a step forward.
On the topic of the Taiwanese signings – I’m only aware of couple of signings of players that young. I agree that 15 is probably too young to be thinking about pro baseball, but MLB teams sign players as young as 16 out of Latin America. In either case, I don’t know much about these types of signings — are the players allowed to continue their educations? Do the players understand the terms of the contracts they’re signing?
As I wrote in the article, MLB teams sign numerous amateurs out of Taiwan and Korea each year, and the effects on the national leagues in those countries goes completely unnoticed on this side of the Pacific. Does that activity not affect the leagues in Taiwan and Korea? For me it comes down to what is better for the game — to have stronger national leagues in Asia, or to have the awareness created by star players (ie, Chien-Ming Wang) in America?
16/09/2008 at 8:42 am Permalink
The issue as I see it is that the gentleman’s agreement between NPB and MLB does not take the players personal interests into account. I don’t think that you’ll ever see a player like crow or alvarez considering japan, because the financial opportunities there are much more limited. But you currently see NBA players taking jobs in europe, where there is no salary cap and players can make more money. If japanese players are still amateurs at the age of 22, they wouldn’t be available for free ageny in japan until the age of 31 at the earliest. I can clearly see why he would wnat to test the waters of MLB now before he locks himself into the prime of his career in Japan. The fact that he was born there is hindering his ability to capatalize on his talent in this case. With more of Japan’s top talent heading to the US every season, I think that NPB has to look at cutting back the team control of players from 9 years to the 6 seen in MLB. By doing this they would be posting younger players and probably see larger posting fees, which would in turn allow them to pay their own players more. It would also probably prevent MLB from trying to skirt the system.
16/09/2008 at 10:32 am Permalink
My impression is that the Japanese baseball institution is more intent on preventing this development from setting a precedent than it is blocking this individual player’s move to the US.
I understand the precedent this can send, but why should the league(NPB) be allowed to blackmail future amateurs who don’t want to go the NPB route? This is what this whole situation has me believeing will happen. I mean Tazawa and other players are individuals who should have the final say in where they want to play, whether that is NPB or MLB. Not the owners or some league executives.
Also, I think this whole thing is being blown out of proportion. I mean the majority of top Japanese amateur talent has elected to stay and go the NPB route. Like a quote from a whole back regarding Sho Nakata and going to MLB:
“They’re like teenagers anywhere else. Girls see Nakata here, they go crazy. He can play in the top leagues in Japan when he’s 20. He’ll be famous. If he goes to the U.S. he’ll be in places like Midland, Texas. The food will be a big problem. He won’t have friends, especially girls. It’s not the physical and technical talent that will hold him back.”
More times than not players will stay in the NPB system for the reasons mentioned above.
As I wrote in the article, MLB teams sign numerous amateurs out of Taiwan and Korea each year, and the effects on the national leagues in those countries goes completely unnoticed on this side of the Pacific. Does that activity not affect the leagues in Taiwan and Korea? For me it comes down to what is better for the game — to have stronger national leagues in Asia, or to have the awareness created by star players (ie, Chien-Ming Wang) in America?
As for Taiwan, its the CPBL that got itself into this mess with underhanded tactics and its gambling problems. Why would any amateur player in Taiwan want to be subjected to that mess?
As for Korea, MLB to my knowledge hasn’t sign as many top amateur players from Korea as from Taiwan.
In either case, I don’t know much about these types of signings — are the players allowed to continue their educations?
Well, this brings me back to when Hanshin drafted pitcher, Kento Tsujimoto, at age 15. I mean to my best knowledge this guy has forgone his education. What kind of message does this send? As for MLB players signed out out of the Dominican, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, and Taiwan I’ve heard conflicting reports on whether they continue their education. Though to this date, I have heard no such thing that in NPB regarding amateur players signed as young as 15-16 there’s no such thing as giving them an education. As the old United Negro Fund commerical goes: “A mind is a terrible thing to waste”.
At this point it would be an obvious retaliation move but under the right circumstances it would make sense for both sides. The player would get a viable alternative to MLB — playing in Japan in front of tens of thousands of fans every night, for millions of dollars.
Yeah, of course they could do that, but how much patience do you think a NPB team have dealing with Scott Boras? Also, are we sure that a NPB team would be able to overbid a MLB team for either Alvarez or Crow? I find it very unlikely that a NPB team would throw over $6 million to Alvarez which is what the Pirates offered him. And anyway while Alvarez remains property of the Pirates until the end of hearing, this point is moot until only if the arbitrator rules the Alvarez contract moot. And even then I think he elect to go back to Vanderbilt.
Also, would Crow or Alvarez want to subject themselves to the Japanese culture at the moment? It’s not exactly a easy transistion. I’m afraid that a retatilation move by NPB to sign Alvarez or Crow is basically an empty threat.
16/09/2008 at 10:51 pm Permalink
Steve — good points. So far NPB has started to loosen it’s rules for domestic free agents in an effort to retain it’s top talent. We’ll probably see more in that direction before NPB relaxes it’s policies towards players going to MLB. I think the biggest gains to be made are through more exchange between the two leagues.
John — Lots of points of discussion. On the ethics of signing younger players: Kento Tsujimoto is an unusual case; he dropped out of high school and made himself eligible for the draft. Mac Suzuki also dropped out of high school to play in an American independent league. In both cases, I have to assume it was a personal choice to go pro. The Yomiuri Giants have signed 2 or 3 kids around 15 years old from Taiwan in the last year or two, but based on the information I have on the subject, I don’t know that that’s any worse ethically than MLB teams signing 16 year-olds. Certainly the MLB teams are much more focused on development.
Obviously the Crow/Alvarez example is a ‘what if’ scenario, but why couldn’t an international talent accept a better offer from an NPB team? Masayoshi Son has talked about making Softbank a world-class team, and I’d love see him back up his words up a little bit more. Signing and developing young international talent would make a difference.
Ultimately there is a delicate balance here, between what is good for an individual team/league versus what is better for the growth and sustainability of the game internationally. The Tazawa events will certainly be a catalyst for change; my hope is that it’s positive change.
And thank you all for your comments, it’s been my pleasure reading your remarks.
16/09/2008 at 10:57 pm Permalink
I should say, it’s always a pleasure reading your remarks 🙂
21/09/2008 at 9:43 am Permalink
I just wanted to say thank you to Patrick for all of the excellent content. This is far and away the most useful site for information about Japanese baseball in English that I have come across.
22/09/2008 at 10:44 pm Permalink
Thanks for the kind words Nathaniel, I’m humbled. There are some excellent sources of information in English on Japanese baseball, most notably the ones I link to in my blogroll. The Japan Times and Daily Yomiuri also publish articles on Japanese baseball in English. I’m just one of a (small) crowd.
03/10/2008 at 12:48 pm Permalink
Just a point of clarification, but didn’t both Kaz Tadano and Mac Suzuki head to MLB using the same route that Tazawa is currently contemplating? I think this situation is being blown way out of porportion based on the rather high ceiling demonstrated by Tazawa this past season. I could be wrong, but don’t recall a hue and outcry over the other players that have ventured across under like circumstances, assuming of course I’m correct on Suzuki and Tadano?
03/10/2008 at 1:46 pm Permalink
Tadano was blacklisted by NPB teams because of his appearance in adult film while he was in college. Mac dropped out of high school and played in an independent league in the US before signing with the Mariners — this was Don Nomura’s work. I’m not sure what Mac’s background is prior to playing in America but I don’t think he had the same high profile as Tazawa. American-Japanese pitcher Robert Boothe signed with the Dodgers out of Asia University last year, but he didn’t put up great results in college and wasn’t as highly regarded as Tazawa is.
I agree that the situation is overblown — it’s died down considerably in the last few weeks, but this is the first time a consensus first-round talent is taking this route to MLB.
05/10/2008 at 8:11 am Permalink
Regarding the difference between Tazawa and the Mac/Tadano pair is that Mac Suzuki wasn’t on anyones’ radar and, as mentioned above, the controversy surrounding Tadano was more than any team was willing to deal with. Tazawa, on the other hand, would not be missed in the upcoming draft if it weren’t for his request to be left out of it. (And there is still talk that a team or two may take a chance and draft him with hopes that he’ll either change his mind or to put pressure on him and the system for change.)
The difference is that NPB teams want Tazawa. Both Mac and Tadano were either unknown or unwanted when they were up for the draft. That’s why NPB is making a big deal about it now.