Comments on: Kawakami vs Kuroda

By: Kawakami to Atlanta » NPB Tracker

Kawakami to Atlanta » NPB Tracker — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 07:22:19 +0000

[...] he had behind him. And the answer is, yeah, anyone would. That said, his k and bb rates have been consistent over the years, and better than Kuroda’s for the last few seasons. Jim Albright’s translations come [...]

By: Patrick

Patrick — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 01:33:39 +0000

"The biggest difference I see looking over the two players’ stats is in complete games. They’ve both thrown a similar number of shutouts (which in and of itself is a big plus for Kuroda), but Kuroda was called on much more often to throw complete games than Kawakami was, as Chunichi has had the bullpen to carry the game (Hiroshima’s closer Nagakawa has always made me nervous while Chunichi’s Iwase is generally lights out). However, over the same time period as your comparisons, Kawakami threw 6.43 innings per game while Kuroda threw just 6.31 innings per game. With 42 more complete games from 1998-2007, Kuroda must have been knocked out of a lot more games early on than Kawakami. That suggests to me that Kawakami has been more steady throughout the seasons." Nice catch. Fangraphs made a similar observation about Kuroda's Dodgers performance as well.

By: westbaystars

westbaystars — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 04:10:45 +0000

As power in the Majors is one of the fields where differences really start to show, HR/9 innings is also important. As pointed out, Kuroda pitched in one of the smallest parks in Japan while Kawakami has had the spacious (and high fenced) Nagoya Dome to play in. Yet both HR/9 are very comparable: 0.93 for Kawakami and 0.96 for Kuroda. Taking parks into account, I’d say that Kuroda is better at keeping the ball in the park, but still, only slightly.

The biggest difference I see looking over the two players’ stats is in complete games. They’ve both thrown a similar number of shutouts (which in and of itself is a big plus for Kuroda), but Kuroda was called on much more often to throw complete games than Kawakami was, as Chunichi has had the bullpen to carry the game (Hiroshima’s closer Nagakawa has always made me nervous while Chunichi’s Iwase is generally lights out). However, over the same time period as your comparisons, Kawakami threw 6.43 innings per game while Kuroda threw just 6.31 innings per game. With 42 more complete games from 1998-2007, Kuroda must have been knocked out of a lot more games early on than Kawakami. That suggests to me that Kawakami has been more steady throughout the seasons.

The intangible that stats don’t talk about regarding Kawakami is that he’s a smart pitcher. He may not have the velocity of others, but he has the control necessary to put the ball where he knows he’ll get results. Knowing batter weaknesses on the 5 other Central League teams is a big plus for Kawakami. He did do well in inter-league play this year, so he may fare well against unknown opposition. (Notice that Kawakami’s had winning seasons since Tanishige joined the Dragons in 2002? The catcher may also play a big role in setting up the pitches – and he just hits the target.)

By: Patrick

Patrick — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 08:28:11 +0000

Kuroda reportedly had a better offer from Kansas City as well. I can see Kawakami getting something like 3 years, $30M, particularly if the Red Sox are involved. Remember that Boston gave Matt Clement 3 year, $27M, and that was a number of years ago.

By: simon

simon — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 08:06:07 +0000

Well, the going rate for a mid-rotation (or is it pretty much any free agent) starters is about $10M/year, and Kuroda received a 3 year $35M contract from the Dodgers, so I expect something in the similar neighbourhood.

By: Gerry

Gerry — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 06:51:10 +0000

As a Red Sox fan, I worry about the hole in the starting rotation that needs to be filled. Whether it will be filled by Burnett, Lowe, Penny, Masterson/Buchholz or Kawakami will depend on many variables . . . two of them are price and length of contract. Another is that Kenshin Kawakami is an unknown quantity (i.e. HR balls, liveliness of fast balls, etc.). I imagine any team would balk at $10M (more than Penny, Beckett, Matsuzaka and other top, MLB proven talents.) $10M is about 40% of the Rays entire payroll.

I am hoping he joins Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima on the Red Sox (assuming they get along), and wins 15 games. On the other hand, the Sox must choose just ONE of Burnett, Lowe, Penny, Kawakami, or their own Buchholz/Masterson options. This means cost, length of contract, and downsides will be carefully considered vs. upsides. I think it’s up to Kawakami.

By: Patrick

Patrick — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 18:39:19 +0000

I think Uehara has a higher upside than Kawakami if he can stay healthy, but Kawakami is a safer bet.

The thing about Igawa is that his control was never as good as any of these guys, and when his changeup was off he was hittable in Japan.

By: simon

simon — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 18:26:54 +0000

Considering all the factors that you mentioned, I agree with your analysis. My main concern would be Kawakami’s slower fastball compared to Kuroda. Otherwise, these two pitchers have completely different arsenals from Igawa so I think that comparison is unnecessary, just as it is on this post. I expect a $10m/year type deal for Kawakami, not sure for how long but MLB is always in need of useful arms.

Uehara, now I think is another story. He hasn’t shown the fitness to even handle the once a week turn in the NPB rotation, so expecting him to start every 5 days in the majors seems unrealistic unless something drastic changes. But Uehara’s on the wrong side of 30.