Comments on: Keith Law on Darvish vs Strasburg

By: Billy McCoy

Billy McCoy — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 11:39:35 +0000

Dear People:

If you would quit analyzing mechanics and arm speed and body size you guys probably wouldn’t have missed on Tim Linecum. Screw the 100 MPH fastball. Unless the guy is going to be a closer he won’t have that velocity for more than five years anyway. So, here’s a how to judge a pitcher’s chance to be good in the major leagues as a starter:

1. Can he throw 3 of the 4 pitches he needs for strikes at anytime?
2. Are 2 of his pitches either overpowering or overnasty?
3. With runners on base does he stay calm?
4. After he has a bad outing does he restrain from treating a water cooler like Lionel Ritchie.

If you can answer YES to these 4 questions a prospect has a 75% chance to pan out–with every NO knock off 25%.

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Sat, 11 Jul 2009 02:40:03 +0000

[...] • NBP Tracker – Patrick – Keith Law on Darvish vs Strasburg [...]

By: passerby

passerby — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 19:22:31 +0000

FA acquisitions are rarely effective ways of building teams within a country anyway. Does Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito ring a bell for Bay Area fans? If you want to talk about deterrence, I think monster FA contracts will be gone sooner than the draft.

By: Patrick

Patrick — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 17:17:43 +0000

I argued for that in a post from last year, but thinking it through logically, the compensation obviously couldn't be a draft pick and it probably couldn't be a player under contract. That basically leaves cash, but anything over a few hundred thousand would be a deterrent for MLB teams to sign all but the top players. So I think it would be good, but it wouldn't result in enough cash to significantly re-invest in the team infrastructure or development.

By: passerby

passerby — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:47:04 +0000

3. is not about FA vs. posting, but about NPB vs. MLB team losing FA players to an MLB team. If draft picks don’t work across the Pacific, they should work something out.

By: Patrick

Patrick — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:00:04 +0000

Some responses…

1. The point of the comparison is that they are the best two pitchers in the world not signed to MLB organizations.

2. Fair enough, but people are always going to bring that up when discussing Darvish (I don’t, but others will). And unfortunately, Matsuzaka will have to live with that $100mm expectation, even though he only got half the money.

3. They received the full free agency term of service for both players. They could have gotten some money for either player by posting him earlier, but they valued keeping them on the team more highly longer.

4. I agree. I actually think it’s time to get rid of the draft, but more on that later.

By: passerby

passerby — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 07:09:34 +0000

Some bullet points about this.

1. First of all, I don’t see the point of this comparison. Darvish has been a pro for several years and Strasburg was just drafted. Yes, I am tired the connotation about Darvish everybody assumes for the basis of this comparison.

2. I am also tired of hearing about the posting money of Matsuzaka. The Lions had all the rights to Matsuzaka at that point, and the Redsox bought them outbidding the others. If you want to include Matsuzaka’s posting money for his value, do the same with others including what a ball club has to give up for them (draft picks, stats of traded players, etc.) Just because money is something that is easy to quantify doesn’t mean that Matsuzaka should be an easy prey for criticism.

3. Speaking of giving up, what compensation did the Dragons receive for the FA players, Fukudome and Kawakami.

4. It doesn’t make much sense when a 16-year-old Venezuelan player can negotiate with all the ball clubs and Strasburg can’t.

By: Dom

Dom — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 05:24:47 +0000

If Strasburg can throw 100 as a big league starter with another plus pitch or two, he is definitely going to have immense success. Darvish jumps at hitters and mixes his pitches very well. If you mix your pitches, especially quality ones like Yu, you are going to get hitters out. I say that both pitchers can be frontline starters in the big leagues but Strasburg has a bit more potential. Good analysis by Law.

By: Ryo

Ryo — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 04:48:21 +0000

Think there needs to be a correction there. Actually Fukudome and Kawakami faced each other on June 2nd in Atlanta with Kosuke going 1-3 with a single against Kenshin.

By: Patrick

Patrick — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 04:31:29 +0000

PWH — Fukudome & Kawakami were teammates for several years with Chunichi. They’re facing each other for the first time here in America.