Grains of Salt
So unsurprisingly, I’m getting questions this offseason about how guys like Tsuyoshi Wada, Hiroyuki Nakajima and Wei Yin Chen project as MLB prospects. Truth be told, trying project established guys from NPB to MLB always makes me a little nervous. I don’t feel like I’m that great at it, so I decided to go back and look at my public track record, to give you the chance to decide if I’m worth listening to.
Here’s what I found:
- Koji Uehara — I was bullish on him when he moved across the Pacific; injury history had me questioning whether he could start; he was one of my favorite guys to watch in Japan and I’m glad he’s done well.
- Kenshin Kawakami — My synopsis was “mid-rotation guy you can win with“. In retrospect that was a little aggressive; he was more like a competent #4 guy before the Braves decided to bury him.
- Hitoki Iwase — I thought his stuff would translate to MLB, particularly after watching Scott Downs pitch; he obviously never moved to MLB.
- Junichi Tazawa — I really liked his stuff, but also expected him to hit a wall somewhere. He reached the majors before hitting a wall, which really impressed me.
- Ken Takahashi — I predicted “a little bit of an uphill battle” for Tak1, but also thought he could be a useful pitcher. He basically was for his year in the Mets organization, though his career ended immediately after returning to Hiroshima.
- Ken Kadokura — Remember when he signed with the Cubs? I felt like he had something left in the tank, but he wound up getting dropped by the Cubs at the end of spring training and went on to have a few good years in Korea.
- Hisanori Takahashi — IÂ liked Tak2 a lot better as a reliever than a starter; that one turned out to be true.
- Ryota Igarashi — I don’t think I made an explicit prediction for Igarashi, but I thought he would do okay. He didn’t seem to trust his stuff in his first year, and though he did better in year two, he went from “effectively wild” in NPB to just “wild” with the Mets.
- Chang-Yong Lim –Â Like Igarashi I don’t know that I really made an explicit prediction for him, though I really liked his stuff. I still do. Lim is still with Yakult and not a free agent, and I doubt we’ll ever see him in MLB.
- Colby Lewis — I found reasons to be optimistic about Lewis in his return to the Rangers, but he certainly has exceeded my expectations.
- Tsuyoshi Nishioka — Over at Fangraphs, I called Nishioka a “Chone Figgins/Ryan Theriot type”. What I meant by that was that he could be an infielder who would get on base but have minimal power, and play decent defense. I didn’t see him flaming out in year one the way he did.
- Hisashi Iwakuma — Also at Fangraphs, I put Iwakuma’s upside at mid-rotation, noting he has to keep his forkball and he will probably regress some in innings pitched. I still mostly think this is the case, assuming he’s healthy. We’ll find out next year.
- Yoshinori Tateyama — I never published much of anything about Tateyama, though I have an unfinished draft still sitting on Fangraphs, where I intended to make the case that he could be an MLB ROOGY/righty specialist. There was little original thought there, as he was dominant against righties in 2010 for Nippon Ham. In 2011 he exhibited a similar split for the Rangers, with a 2.04 against righties, versus 7.71 against lefties.
I kind of set out to prove that I’m not that great at these predictions, so I was surprised that the results here actually weren’t too bad. I seemed to do all right with Uehara, Tak1 and Tak2, while I probably underestimated Lewis and over-predicted Nishioka. The Nishioka flop makes me worry that I don’t know how to project position players. I think overall though, it’s pretty clear that I tend to see the glass as half-full with these guys as prospects. I also noticed here was that I seem to look at specific skills and how they might translate, rather than trying to project specific stats. Maybe I’m more of a scout than a numbers guy at heart.
That said, there are plenty of things I’ve been wrong about, I just haven’t always had a platform like this to assert my wrongness. If NPB Tracker had been around, however, I would have told you that…
- …of the two Matsuis, Kazuo was the far better MLB prospect. I was a huge fan of Kazuo’s; I saw him as a five-tool player.
- …Kei Igawa’s changeup was going to be a good MLB pitch.
- …Nagisa Arakaki was Japan’s next great pitcher.
- …So Taguchi wouldn’t have anything to offer to and MLB club.
…and so on.
So you might see me make a few statements on how I think the 2012 NPB imports may perform after they cross the Pacific. I’ll let you decide the appropriate measure of salt to take them with.
03/12/2011 at 6:14 am Permalink
From the pure character/personality/cultural point of view, I couldn’t imagine Tsuyoshi Nishioka fitting in well with others in the states.
Among the players going to MLB for 2012, Hisashi Iwakuma is the only guy who I think have little or no problem moving to the states (or canada) culturally. He is a hippier Takashi Saito.
I can see Norichika Aoki struggling culturally. He is somehow incapable of viewing his own culture objectively or understanding a foreign culture without prejudice. He is a hybrid of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Kosuke Fukudome.
I wish Aoki can succeed, but he needs to change alot.
03/12/2011 at 11:48 am Permalink
You sure do know a lot about personal information of NPB players.
03/12/2011 at 3:43 pm Permalink
-passerby
I know you are being sarcastic and profiling players are wrong ,
but don’t be naive. Aoki is too shy. He can’t even smile naturally.
03/12/2011 at 10:19 pm Permalink
I thought Kawakami would have more success in the Majors
He was pretty solid his first year (pretty similar to Kuroda’s first two years in MLB)
He’s a bulldog and I thought his forkball would be a useful pitch, but things didn’t work out
Haven’t heard any rumors about him recently, heard Hanshin and Chunichi were considering a while ago, is he healthy? Anything you have heard recently?
04/12/2011 at 7:51 pm Permalink
I heard Hanshin is considering Igarashi – though I’d like him better back at Yakult what with the Birds’ weakend bullpen and all… Patrick, do you know whether Yakult is making any moves to reacquire Igarashi?
04/12/2011 at 9:01 pm Permalink
Nah, haven’t seen/heard anything about Igarashi other than Hanshin’s interest. He is playing winter ball in the Dominican, which makes me think that he’s auditioning for MLB teams.
05/12/2011 at 12:10 am Permalink
Hanshin is always linked with returning major leaguers, it’s an annual rite and pretty fun one at that. Probably just the Kansai media getting all worked up over self-generated rumours.
05/12/2011 at 12:16 pm Permalink
Somehow many NPB pitchers have not been able to throw good forkball after coming to MLB. Catchers in MLB not used to forkballs? Or because of size variation of the balls used in the two leagues?
05/12/2011 at 10:41 pm Permalink
Nomo didn’t have any trouble, and Kuroda eventually figured it out. Matsuzaka completely lost his forkball. The best theory I have is that MLB ball is a little bigger, so guys with smaller hands have a harder time throwing forkballs/splitters. Jose Contreras warms up with a big softball to throw his forkball/splitter, to give an idea.
Darvish has small hands (for his size), but he doesn’t really rely on his forkball. Iwakuma, does rely on his forkball so being able to throw it will be critical to his MLB success.
06/12/2011 at 7:19 am Permalink
Based on your Iwakuma data, he still threw the fork ball a good percentage of the time this season. Since the ball used this season was more along the lines of an MLB ball, I think that that will bode well for his transition.
07/12/2011 at 9:35 pm Permalink
> I called Nishioka a “Chone Figgins/Ryan Theriot typeâ€.
in a way you were right on the spot. Chone Figgins avg 188, 1 HR, 15RBIs. great job!