NPB Tracker

I missed this when the news first broke last week, but Hideki Okajima is headed back to Japan, to play for the Softbank Hawks. Softbank officially introduced him in a press conference on March 6th (JST). Okajima brushed off the concerns about his shoulder that led to the termination of his minor league contract with the Yankees, saying “my personal training was okay.” Okajima also added, “while I didn’t think I would be able to play baseball this year, Softbank was the first team that I heard from. There is pressure, but I want to show off what I did in America.”

Okajima has been a personal favorite of mine since his days with Yomiuri. Here’s hoping he performs well with Softbank.

A couple of hot stove notes for the evening…

• Sanspo reports that Milwaukee started negotiations with Norichika Aoki in in the backup player range, around $1-1.5m. Additionally, since the Brewers lack a scouting presence in Japan, they intend to work Aoki out at their Arizona facility before making a decision on him.
• Sports Hochi reports that Hideki Okajima is in the final stages of negotiations with the Yankees on a minor league deal with a non-roster camp invite. Hochi cites a source familiar with situation as saying the two sides could “reach an agreement as soon as around the New Year.”
• Sponichi reports that Softbank is working on acquiring lefty Reynel Pinto. Pinto would be a rotation candidate for the Hawks, who have said goodbye to starters Toshiya Sugiuchi, Tsuyoshi Wada and DJ Houlton this offseason.
• Also via Sponichi, The Chiba Lotte Marines have announced that they have signed Josh Whitesell. Whitesell spent the last two seasons with Yakult.

With northern Japan still not out of the woods, baseball has rightfully taken a backseat in the news. But there is already news about the charitable activity of NPB players, as well as discussion about when NPB’s season should begin, and I’d like to share those items tonight. No opinion here, just news.

• It looks like the current proposal is to open the Central League’s season on March 25, and the Pacific League’s on April 12. The Rakuten Golden Eagles will likely borrow Kobe’s newly renamed Hotto Motto Stadium to open the season.
• Not everyone is in favor of the idea. Notably, Hanshin outfielder Tomoaki Kanemoto has published a lengthy commentary against the idea in Nikkan Sports. His point is that it’s “not an environment where we can inspire courage,” pointing out that dead bodies are still being found, and people are still lacking food, water and electricity.
• Meanwhile Yakult infielder Shinya Miyamoto suggests delaying opening day into April, and playing for charity.
• Miyamoto’s former teammate and boss Atsuya Furuta is also against the March proposal.
• Seibu Lions players including Takayuki Kishi and Yusei Kikuchi collected donations at Tokorozawa Station on the 16th.
• Boston pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Junichi Tazawa and Itsuki Shoda did the same prior to a spring training game in Florida.
• Kenji Johjima is back in action, with a hi no maru (Japanese flag) adorning his glove, and a commitment to donate JPY 10m ($120k) to the earthquake/tsunami victims.
• Yu Darvish is donating JPY 50m to the Japanese Red Cross.
• Chan Ho Park is also contributing JPY 10m.
• Hiroki Kurodahas pledged $50,000.
• The Meikyukai has pledged JPY 3m.
• Shohei Tateyama is donating JPY 1m to the Japanese Red Cross.
• Takashi Saito has his successors at Tohoku High School on his mind.
• The Yokohama BayStars have granted all five of their foreign players temporary leave to return to America.
• Kei Igawa has returned to Japan. Igawa is from Oarai, Ibaraki and wanted to meet his parents directly.

And finally I and my family have made small contributions to Global Giving and Save The Children, and are researching other organizations. If anyone has any suggestions, I’m all ears.

A couple of notes to pass along as we head into the weekend…

• The Hanshin Tigers have some interest in the recently non-tendered Hideki Okajima. Team director Shoji Numazawa explains, as quoted in Sansop:  “Will we look into him? Yes. Because, you know, he’s a pitcher. It’s not that we don’t have interest. But as I’m always saying, we’re not going to have a bidding war with the Majors. He’s a pitcher so we have some interest. And then there’s money and his age and things. But to say we have no interest would be a lie.” Hanshin has been done a lefty since injuries claimed the career of Jeff Williams a couple years ago. Casey Fossum wasn’t able to fill his shoes in 2010.
• The Yokohama BayStars have signed pitchers Brandon Mann and Clayton Hamilton, according to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun. Mann and Hamilton have mostly toiled in the lower minors, and worked out for Yokohama back in October
• Sponichi has reported that Yakult has a basic agreement with Korean pitcher Young-Soo Bae.

I’ve spent most of my writing time this week over at FanGraphs, profiling some of Japan’s better players. In researching that set of articles, I came across this post I wrote in early 2009, before Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami had signed with MLB clubs. Looking back at this, I don’t think I’d change the set of conclusions that I originally drew, but I will add the observation that this trend has hurt the overall depth of the league. Another interesting thing to note is that 11 of the 26 players listed here have returned to NPB, several since this article was written: Johjima, Iguchi, Kobayashi, Yabuta, Taguchi, Yabu and Fukumori.

Time to close out this series with some conclusions. I fear that I may be oversimplifying this a bit, but I’m looking for macro trends with this. These are casual observations, I didn’t do any hard research.

Check the three previous installments here: 1, 2, 3.

1. Most of the teams that lost a star to MLB took some kind of a hit in the standings. With the exception of Hiroshima, the teams losing the top 10 players listed below took years to replace the production they lost, and some still haven’t. It’s also important to remember that none of these departures happened in a vacuum; there were other things that affected the performance of each team, but overall the lose of these players has hurt their former teams competitively.

2. The only team that really took a popularity hit after losing a star to MLB was the Giants after losing Matsui. I bought walk-up tickets to a Giants game in 2005, which would have been unthinkable a few years earlier. Of course, while the Giants were down, the Tigers and Dragons were both up and have enjoyed competitive success and popularity since the early part of the decade. SoftBank has been less competitive since losing Johjima, but has not suffered at the gate. The team is actually adding 6000 seats to the Yahoo Dome for next season to help meet demand.

3. Signing foreign talent to replace departed stars doesn’t seem to work. Teams will often sign foreign players to fill the holes left by departed stars, but when the do so, they’re losing the opportunity to add depth at other positions with those roster spots. I can’t think of an example where a foreign star was a long-term replacement for an MLB bound star. Colby Lewis was great as Hiroki Kuroda’s replacement in 2008, but so was Kevin Hodges a few years ago and he flamed out after a single season.

4. Losing talent to MLB has a trickle-down impact on the smaller market teams. As an example, Hanshin may have been content with their outfield had Shinjo stuck around, but two years after he left they signed Tomoaki Kanemoto away from the Carp to play left field. Kanemoto has gone on to become a legend for the Tigers while the Carp have only recently begun to show signs of life. Hanshin and Yomiuri can spend to fill their holes, while smaller market teams like Hiroshima cannot.

5. On the positive side, stars moving to MLB has opened up (or could potentially open) spots for younger players, in a league where there is no rule 5 draft and blocked prospects and depth guys are seldom traded. We haven’t seen too many cases of prospects jumping in and filling the shoes of the top 10 guys I’ve listed below, but others have stepped in for 11-26.

Overall, I don’t think this trend is killing NPB. Attendance is stable, and Japan Series television ratings were up this year (mostly because the Giants played in it). Many of the players who have made the leap to MLB have actually been pretty successful, which has greatly improved the credibility of NPB overseas. On the downside, the loss of star players has hurt the competitive depth of the affected teams, and led many to question the viability of the league. I seeing the loss of these star players as an “Oakland A’s-ing” of the league — the A’s have gotten by with smart management, an ability to exploit market inefficiencies and a willingness to continually reinvent the team on the field. The A’s style doesn’t translate to the Japanese game completely, but the underlying principles of thrift and creativity are important for a group of teams that generally is not going to compete with MLB financially.

Below is a list of all the players I looked at, ranked in order of how much I think their departure affected their previous team and the league. For me, there are really about three or four classes: Matsui and Johjima, Iwamura through Iguchi, and everyone else. You can possibly put Matsui, Kobayashi and Yabuta in their own class as well, as guys who were quickly replaced but did leave a gap in their absences.

* I forgot about both these guys when compiling the original lists. Mori was successfully posted and signed with Tampa Bay, but got hurt in his first spring training and was never heard from again. Iriki played in the Mets and Blue Jays organizations, but got busted for PED usage and never reached the Majors. He resurfaced with Yokohama in 2008, but retired after the season.

** I left out Yukinaga Maeda as well.

Update, Wednesday night: Igarashi has indeed signed with the Mets.

Yesterday, I passed along (via Twitter) a Sponichi report saying that the Red Sox were in the lead for Ryota Igarashi with a two-year deal worth $2-3m. This ran counter to the NY Times report from earlier in the day saying that Igarashi was near a deal with the Mets.

Twitter, being limited to 140 characters per post, doesn’t allow for much detail, so here’s some context from the Sponichi article:

• Igarashi spent a day training with Daisuke Matsuzaka in Arizona. Sponichi doesn’t mention this, but I’ve read elsewhere that they had planned to train together for two days.
• Igarashi got to ask Matsuzaka quite a bit about Boston’s camp and training programs. Said Igarashi: “the things we talked about were interesting, and I enjoyed it. I only know a little bit, but it’s totally different [from Japan]. It reduced my stress.”
• Sponichi also points out that “diving into a new environment on a team that already has three Japanese pitchers, Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Junichi Tazawa is an appealing point.” This is a quote from the article, not Igarashi.
• This might be a function of the limitations of Twitter, but the term I translated as “Red Sox in the lead” comes across more directly as “Red Sox one step ahead”.

And a couple of other things to consider…

• Sports Hochi reported over the weekend that the countdown was running toward a deal with the Mets.
• Igarashi let it slip on his way to America that he had received multiple offers, including one from the team he was hoping to play for. Sponichi seems to be hinting pretty strongly that the team might be the Red Sox.

These are just my observations based on what’s been in the media — I don’t have my own sources on this one. As an observer, I could see this going either way. Both Boston and New York are appealing destinations, every team needs bullpen depth, and the dollar figures being reported are peanuts to either team.

The MLB offseason is heating up, and figures to kick into full gear when the Winter Meetings open on Monday. As usual, there will be a number of story lines involving Japanese teams and players this year.

• Hideki Matsui is the top Japanese name this offseason. His situation will evolve as talks with the Yankees occur and other key veteran sluggers find 2010 employers. Reports last week stated that agent Arn Tellem could call Matsui in anytime during the week, and Matsui has delayed his return to Japan to accommodate. Expect a full contingent of Japanese media keep the rumor mill jam-packed until this guy signs.
• We could wind up with a better sense on the market for Ryota Igarashi and Hisanori Takahashi. The market will be stronger for Igarashi, and the righty is already training in Arizona.
• NPB foreign player rosters are filling up, but we frequently hear about a guy or two moving from MLB or affiliated ball over to Japan during the Winter Meetings.

Our own Ryo Shinkawa will be on the ground at this year’s Winter Meetings.

Hideki Okajima needs to work out a deal with Boston for the remainder of his arbitration-eligible years, and he’s got a couple of basic requests. “I requested to my agent that I’d like a personal translator to be brought in,” said Okajima in Sponichi, adding, “more than money (salary), I want to play baseball in America even a year longer.” Oki isn’t a free agent, but all indications are that he would have wanted to return to Boston anyway, and it seems that he has reasonable priorities for this series of negotiations.

Despite the fact that we’ve known for some time that Hisanori Takahashi would a candidate to jump to MLB this offseason, the Yomiuri lefty hasn’t gotten much virtual ink on this site. I’ve actually had a draft profile on him sitting un-started since June, but time has been an issue this year and I’ve prioritized other content.

Instead of an in-depth profile, I’ll give a quick bird’s eye view of Takahashi and his MLB credentials:

• Turns 35 on April 2, 2010
• Is coming off a solid 2009 campaign: 10-6, 2.94 ERA, 121/36 K/BB in 144 IP
• Made 135m yen ($1.3m) in 2009
• Started pro career in 2000 at age 26, after playing both college and industrial league ball
• Isn’t going to overwhelm anyone with an 85-90 mph fastball
• Has an excellent screwball, which he induces grounders and misses bats with; should be a plus pitch at the MLB level as well
• Also has a two-seam fastball, slider and curve; the two-seamer is a pretty good pitch
• No shortage of velocity info on him at our data site (note: screwball shows up as a “sinker” on in our data; two-seam as  “shuuto”)
• Has never been a huge innings eater in Japan: career high is 186.2 IP (2007), has twice thrown 163 (2002, 2005), next highest total is 144 (2009)
• Was not a lefty killer in 2009: lefties hit .300 against him (48/160), while holding righties to .250 (99/396)
• Did keep lefties in the park in 2009: only three of his 16 home runs allowed came against lefties
• Is represented by Peter Greenberg, who got another Takahashi (Ken) a deal with the Blue Jays and later the Mets last year, and recently lost Hideki Okajima. Had he kept Okajima, Greenberg could have really cornered the market on Japanese lefties

Takahashi has said he wants to continue in a starting role after he crosses the Pacific, but putting everything together he seems better suited for the bullpen. That said, assuming his screwball doesn’t get lost in translation, I don’t see why he can’t be an effective reliever in the Okajima mold.

So far the Giants and Rangers have been noted in the Japanese media as interested, though I suspect the Rangers will come up for everyone because of Jim Colborn’s presence. Takahashi himself has said that he would like to wind up on the same team as former Yomiuri teammate Hideki Matsui, but the NL West would likely be the most amenable destination for him.

Hideki Okajima, who will be a free agent in the upcoming offseason is looking to re-sign (didn’t forget the hyphen this time) with the Boston Red Sox. To that end, he has dismissed agent Peter Greenberg and will be represented by Boston-based Joe Rosen.

Regarding the change, Okajima was quoted as saying “The agent and I were not on the same page regarding contracts. There was no specific communication done and I struggled to understand.” With the Red Sox showing strong interest in re-signing Okajima, he did not want to take any risks and went with a more established Boston-area guy. Okajima stated another positive point about Rosen is that, “he will be able to help me in community involvement as well.”

There seems to be no question that both sides are looking to reconnect and the change in agents shows how Okajima is committed to staying with the Red Sox. With the contribution of Okajima in his three seasons with the Red Sox posting a 2.72 ERA in 198 games, it should be a quick negotiation.