NPB Tracker

A roundup of player acquisition notes from around the ‘net.

• Yomiuri is extending the tryout of their mystery player by another week or two.
• Sponichi reports that SoftBank is going to drop injured ace Kazumi Saito to ikusei status after this season. Saito hasn’t pitched in an ichi-gun game since 2007.
• It’s no surprise that Koji Uehara wants to continue playing in MLB, but that hasn’t stopped him from appearing in NPB rumors. Hanshin and Yokohama are reportedly interested.
• Hideki Matsui has ruled out a return to Japan. A quote from Sponichi: “[it's not an option]. Please think it through. How would I play on artificial turf with my knees? Even if I want to go back I wouldn’t be able to play. Under the circumstances, it’s impossible.”
• It looks like Orix manager Akinobu Okada is trying to recruit retired Hanshin speedster Norihiro Akahoshi out of retirement. Post-retirement comebacks are rare in Japan, Hanshin would have to release their rights to him, and he’d have to prove that he’s medically fit to play, so there are significant hurdles here.
• Former Carp ace Colby Lewis did an interview with Chunichi Sports. The whole thing is worth translating, but for now I’ll just do his answer to the inevitable question about Yu Darvish and Hisashi Iwakuma: “I think Darvish is a player who should come to the majors as soon as he can. No one knows what he’ll be like or in what role he’ll be used in if he waits until he’s 26 or 27. I think Japan should change the service time requirements of it’s free agency system. I think Iwakuma would also succeed in the majors. If pitchers can show velocity it’s easy to if how they make it in the majors.” (note: this is a translation of a translation)
• And finally, one in English: Christopher Jackson of the Albuquerque Examiner has a report on some of the 3A Isotopes players’ brushes with Japan, including former NPB’ers Scott Dohmann and Michael Restovich, and NPB hopefully John Lindsey.

Only the most eagle-eyed readers will notice this, but I just updated the navigation bar, retiring last year’s free agents page, and replacing it with (surprise) an updated page for this season.

This year I’m going to start with a small list of players, and build it up over time. Here’s what I have so far:

International Free Agents

Hiro Kobayashi (RHP, Chiba Lotte Marines, Data): Kobayashi had a lengthy career as an underrated starter before moving to the bullpen in 2010, where he has been very effective. Kobayashi doesn’t have a power arm, but attacks the strike zone.

Chang Yong Lim (RHP, Yakult Swallows, Data): Certainly the top arm available in the international pool, the 34 year-old reliever had flirtations with MLB prior to moving to Japan. It would be interesting to see how his unusual combination of a low arm angle and velocity play at the MLB level.

Brian Falkenborg (LHP, SoftBank Hawks, Data): Falkenborg has dramatically improved his control in Japan (61:7 K:BB in 2010 as of August 12; 61:9 in 2009), and shown good velocity. SoftBank will want to bring him back, but he’ll be a candidate for MLB teams need righty bullpen depth.

Synopsis: the year of the righthanded reliever.

Domestic Free Agents

Seiichi Uchikawa (IF/OF, Yokohama BayStars): The best bat on the domestic market, Uchikawa downplayed his free agency when he qualified, saying he’d need time to think about it. If he decides he wants to play elsewhere in Japan, he’ll have the usual suitors (Hanshin, Yomiuri).

Tsuyoshi Wada (LHP, SoftBank Hawks, Data): Wada has qualified for free agency, but has already commented that “there’s absolutely no reason to exercise”. We’ll see what happens when he qualifies to move to MLB.

Munenori Kawasaki (IF, SoftBank Hawks): Kawasaki is eligible for NPB free agency after the season, but according to Sponichi, wants to hold out for a chance at MLB after next season.

Hisasahi Iwakuma (RHP, Rakuten Golden Eagles, Data): Iwakuma has qualified for domestic free agency, but is already under contract for 2011. He’s one to watch next year.

Synopsis: wait ’til next year.

Posting Candidates

Wei-Yin Chen (LHP, Chunichi Dragons, Data): Chen is an interesting case – he’s registered as a foreign player, but doesn’t have contract language allowing him to become a free agent if he chooses, as the MLB veterans that play in Japan typically do. As such, he subject to the posting system as his only means to move to MLB prior to hitting free agency. He was outspoken about wanting to be posted after last season, and hired Alan Nero to represent him, so I expect him to ask again this offseason. He’s 25, lefthanded, and has an electric arm, so I would expect him to command a healthy transfer fee.

Kyuji Fujikawa (RHP, Hanshin Tigers, Data): Japan’s best strikeout reliever has talked for years about being posted; Hanshin has insisted that Kei Igawa was an exception and that Fujikawa won’t be posted. I profiled Fujikawa way back in June 2008.

Yu Darvish (RHP, Nippon Ham, Data): The rumblings that Darvish wants to be posted have picked up this year, but then again every year there are rumors of an imminent posting and it hasn’t happened yet. I’d say there’s maybe a 1% chance that Darvish gets posted this year. He’s still about four years away from full, international free agency.

Synopsis: I think we see Chen posted, at the most.

It’s not year that we see a 20 game winner in NPB. The last pitcher to pull it off was Hisashi Iwakuma, with his remarkable 21-win season in 2008. The last time prior to that was 2003, when Kei Igawa and Kazumi Saito each won 20, and shared the Sawamura Award. Bonus points will be awarded to the reader who can name the last 20-game winner prior to Igawa and Saito.

At the halfway point this season, a number of pitchers have won enough to have a shot at 20:

So will any of them do it? Assuming good health, each one of these guys should get 10-13 more starts this year, so, as always, winning 20 will require both effectiveness and luck.

If I were to place a bet on one of these pitchers winning 20, I think I’d reluctantly go with Tohno. The Giants will keep winning and he’s been very effective, but Tohno doesn’t go deep into games and will rely on his bullpen to lock down wins for him. The fact that Maeda, the only other Central Leaguer on this list, plays for the also-ran Hiroshima seems to work against him, but remember that Iwak

I could see one of the Pacific League pitchers making a run too, but the Pa-League is so balanced this year it’s hard to guess which one.

News and notes from around NPB, mostly in Japanese this time around.

• Orix took this year’s Interleague title, and a with it a 50m yen ($500k) award for the team. The emergent T-Okada was credited as the hero of yesterday’s game, but stalwart slugger Alex Cabrera was 3-4 with two rbi’s and is hitting .394 on the season. Orix is now 32-30-1 in what I thought would be a rebulding season.
• Hichori Morimoto has racked up enough service time for international free agency. When asked about it, he responded in jest “I’m interested, you know, in America”, then added, “I care about how other teams evaluate me, but playing for the Fighters is the best.”
• Hisashi Iwakuma has also qualified for domestic free agency, but that’s a bit of a non-event given that he’s already under contract with Rakuten for next season. He’s represented by IMG, though, and I think he’ll make the MLB move after 2011, assuming he remains healthy and effective.
• The Giants called up Taishi Ohta, and he made his first professional start on the 12th, going 0-3. He had another 0-3 outing on the 13th.
• Yu Darvish’s June 12 start is archived on Justin.tv. Catch it while you can.
• Akinori Otsuka attended a Padress-Mariners game over the weekend, and still wants to make an MLB comeback. It won’t be this year though. Aki had his third elbow (ひじ) surgery this past January, and has been playing catch for about three weeks. He’s hoping to be throwing at full strength in October. Aki is 38, so a comeback is a tall order given his injury history. Keiichi Yabu returned to MLB ball at a older age, but he was coming back from ineffectiveness, not injuries.
• Here’s one in English: veteran NPB writer Jim Allen takes a look at Lotte’s hot first half.

And finally, off-topic content this week inspired by the South African-hosted World Cup: Emeka Okafor’s Timbuktu Chronicles and Appfrica, a blog site run by an Ugundan tech incubator. These outstanding blogs highlight areas of African resourcefulness and innovation.

Yu Darvish has signed his 2010 contract. In 2009, the heralded righty went 15-5 with a 1.73 era over 182 innings, taking home the MVP award at the end of the season. In return, the Nippon Ham corporation is bumping his salary up 60m yen ($678k in the currently weak US currency) to 330m yen ($3.729m).

Darvish bumps Hisashi Iwakuma from the top spot as the highest paid pitcher in the Pacific League, though he’ll still trail Central Leaguers Kyuji Fujikawa and Hitoki Iwase for the overall lead. Darvish also crosses the 300m yen mark at a younger age (age 24 season) than any other player in NPB history, though Ichiro took home over 400m yen at age 25.

With the draft over in the United States, the next focus will be on teams negotiating with agents to reach agreements for the players starting their professional careers. Agents occassionally get the national spotlight for some negotiations and have become a big part of sports business and the baseball world, which has led to a paradigm shift in professional sports.

On the other hand, in NPB, player agents are still a fairly a new idea and agents are known as Dairinin (representative). One agent that comes to mind, having received national attention is Don Nomura (the son of  Sachiyo Nomura, and step-son Rakuten Golden Eagles manager Katsuya Nomura). He was involved in negotiating a minor-league deal for Mac Suzuki and was a big part of Hideo Nomo crossing the Pacific.

Although agents are starting to be recognized, NPB still has a closed culture toward accepting the role of the agents. An agent needs to be a licensed lawyer or certified as an agent by MLB, or pass the exam that the Players Association provides. They also need to register with NPB in order to take part in a player’s contract negotiation. In order to register as an agent, the candidate must read the rules and apply downloading the materials from this page.

The biggest difference in the role of agents between MLB and NPB is that an agent can only represent a single player. This restriction reduces the appeal to become a player  agent as not many people will be able to live off of the five percent commission from one player.

Surveys have been taken by the Players Association in the past to look at what the players actually think about agents and if they would like to utilize an agent in the future (The Results from 2000). Players were still hesitant to embrace the idea of using agents, as only 2.2 % (14/633) of the players answering the surveys stated they would definitely like to use one.

However in recent years with agents being well-known for representing players negotiating for major league deals, the idea of agents is gaining ground with the players. A new development we’ve seen is established lawyers adding player representation to their resumes. “Lawyer Kitamura Joining the Baseball World” is one famous recent example.

Unless the rules change to allow agents to be a bigger part of the sport, it is hard to imagine an icon like Scott Boras appearing in the NPB world. However, as agents are becoming more trusted from the players, the opportunities for sports agencies should grow. Notably, Hisashi Iwakuma signed a deal with IMG in December, 2007.

Hiroshima ace Kan Ohtake is trying to extend his scoreless innings streak against Hisashi Iwakuma and the Rakuten Eagles. Check it out on NPB Live. It’s playing on the topmost Justin.tv player.

Update: Orix vs Yokohama has started on the second player.

This ranking is based on calculating information from Daily Sports Online, and converting into US dollars at the April 24 dollar-yen exchange rate from Google Finance. The numbers are based on the start of the 2009 season. I hope this will be interesting and insightful for new NPB fans to learn how much Japanese teams pay their players.

• One note is that teams with more than 70 players on contract are from the existence of ikusei (training) players.

Hisashi Iwakuma‘s stellar performance in the World Baseball Classic has lead to his first nationwide commercial appearance. Sukiya, a national fastfood chain, will utilize Iwakuma to promote its new prices for their main menu items. Selecting a nationally popular figure on the was the reasoning behind selecting Iwakuma as the face of the company for the forseeable future.

Iwakuma plays in a small home market, Sendai, and even though he was the Sawamura Award winner (top pitcher) in 2008, his marketability did not increase immediately. It was his performance on the international stage that boosted his publicity to a national level.

Although many players use the WBC as an audition for a Major League roster spot, Iwakuma is a great example of how performing on the international stage can lead to other opportunities. The players and manager of the Korean national team are also receiving endorsement opportunities as manager In-Sik Kim, pitcher Hyunjin Ryu, and infielders Tae Kyun Kim, and Bum Ho Lee are featured in an advertisment poster for the Galleria shopping mall. Infielder Dae Ho Lee also captilized on opportunities being the image character for Lotte Milk and Pusan Bank. Ownership companies for Korean teams tend to be more passive toward using their own players as their image character and the decision of utilizing players in this capacity shows how much of an impact the WBC had on Korea as well.

I’m working on a way to gather pitching information for NPB games. It’s not quite Pitch F/X but it should yield some interesting information. I’m not done yet, but the early results are good. I was able to chart the velocity on each pitch thrown by Hisashi Iwakuma and Hideaki Wakui in their April 10 matchup, which Wakui won 6-0.

(Click to enlarge the charts)

Iwakuma was lifted after six innings and 92 pitches, allowing three runs. 

Wakui used seven different pitches, though he only threw his changeup a couple of times. He threw 138 pitches, and note that his fastball’s velocity drops toward the end.