There’s no indication of whether the O’s view Takahashi as a starter or reliever, but international scouting director John Stockstill said that if the team does make him an offer, it won’t be until January. Baltimore has become active in the Japanese free agent market; last year they were in on Kenshin Kawakami, were the only MLB to look at Ryoji Aikawa, and eventually signed Uehara and Ryohei Tanaka. I could see them picking up Hideki Matsui this offseason as well.

For more on Takahashi, please see my profile of him, and his velocity data.

(listed in order of actual results, my predictions are in parentheses)

1. Yomiuri Giants (2) — I picked the Giants to finish second. In 2008 Hanshin led for most of the year, before choking down the stretch, and I thought they’d make it this year. I was dead wrong about that, and the Giants wound up dominating from wire to wire. I thought someone from the secondary group of pitchers would have to step up, but the guys who did weren’t among my three breakout candidates (Kentaro Nishimura, Shun Tohno, and Takahiko Nomaguchi) — they were Yakult castoff Dicky Gonzales and Dominican prospect Wirfin Obispo.

2. Chunichi Dragons (5) — I was way off here. Chunichi put up a mediocre year in 2008, and lost three key contributors (Kenshin Kawakami, Nori Nakamura, Tyrone Woods) and I thought we’d see them slip further this year. Turns out I didn’t respect the Dragons’ depth highly enough. I did, however, correctly identify two of the key players for the Dragons this season, choosing Tony Blanco and Kazuki Yoshimi along with rookie Kei Nomoto. Nomoto was a bit of a disappointment, but Blanco and Yoshimi were outstanding.

3. Yakult Swallows (4) — Yakult took a step forward in 2009, sneaking in to the playoffs despite finishing one game under .500. Norichika Aoki overcame a horrific first half to finish at .303, and Aaron Guiel bounced back from a sub-par 2008 to hit 27 home runs. Two of my key players — Jaime D’Antona (.276, 21 hr) and Yoshinori (121 IP, 3.50 ERA)– were solid, while the other Tatsunori Masubuchi (one game, 12.60 era) was not. Yakult did get outscored by their opponents by 48 runs this year.

4. Hanshin Tigers (1) — My key players, Takahiro Arai and Kevin Mench, failed to meet expectations, and so did the Tigers. Mench’s time in Japan was particularly disastrous, flaming out after only 15 games. Hanshin’s trio of veterans Tomoaki Kanemoto, Akihiro Yano and Tsuyoshi Shimoyanagi started to show some signs of aging as well.

5. Hiroshima Carp (3) –The step forward I envisioned after a solid 2008 season didn’t materialize for the Carp, despite the good vibes from the beautiful new Mazda Stadium. The rotation was solid 1-3 and the Carp added American sluggers Scott McClain and Andy Phillips mid-season, but it wasn’t enough to win consistently. My key player, Kenta Maeda, was better than his 8-14 record would indicate.

6. Yokohama BayStars (6) — The one prediction I nailed, except that I thought they’d be a little more competitive this year. Wrong. Yokohama was again a doormat, suffering to the tune of a .354 winning percentage, getting outscored by 188 runs and losing it’s manager in the process. My key man, Hayato Terahara, was limited to 83 innings of work.

Synopsis: I guess I was close enough on everything except Chunichi and Hanshin.I thought the league would be a little more competitive, but the way things played out Yomiuri and Chunichi were way ahead of everyone else.

“There’s a feeling that if he comes back to Japan, it will be with Hanshin. He’s had knee issues, and if he’s going to play in Japan the natural grass at Koshien would be good.”

And Nikkan Sports:

“Certainly with that type of hitter, it wouldn’t be that we don’t have interest. Are the Yankees really not going to resign him, and if so, how much would we need? We want to do our homework so that if it comes to that, we’ll be able to move quickly.”

“Realistically money would be a problem.”

Comments attributed to Matsui appear in Sponichi:

“Of course, the best thing would be to continue to be a player who is needed by the Yankees. Of course I can’t even imagine playing for another team.”

“I might have to return to Japan.”

I think we can expect to see this kind of speculation about Matsui’s future more frequently as the season goes on. In the US media, Matsui has been pretty consistent in saying that he’d like to stay in MLB, so his Sponichi comments come as a little bit of a surprise to me.

It feels like Hanshin is posturing a little bit with these comments, though the are openly acknowledging that it would be an expensive move for them. Hanshin talked a pretty good game when Kenshin Kawakami was on the market last year as well. It’s also hard to see where Matui fights in with the Tigers in a baseball sense. Still, Hanshin was Matsui’s favorite team growing up, and he’d obviously be a huge draw anywhere in Japan, so I wouldn’t rule this out completely.

And he didn’t have one of his best games.

On the upside…

• worked out of a couple of jams
• decent velocity — hit 94 mph on the gun one time, which is harder than I would normally expect him to throw
• got a sacrifice down (I wasn’t in the room when this happened, seeing in it the box score)
• speed giveth: Benji Molina’s lack of pace saved a run for Kenshin

On the downside…

• got into trouble in every inning he pitched
• poor control — airmailed a fastball, hit Aaron Rowand, catcther had a passed ball
• couldn’t get his breaking stuff over for strikes, had a hittable fastball
• speed taketh away: Rowand stole home

Kenshin’s breaking stuff basically wasn’t working at all. I only saw him get a couple of swinging strikes, and he had a pattern of getting behind on guys and then coming back with very hittable fastballs. 

Anyone else see the game?

For more on Kawakami, check out these posts:

• Kenshin Kawakami Profile
• Kawakami vs Kuroda

So to those of you who saw the game, what are your thoughts?

2. Yomiuri Giants: Yomiuri slipped past Hanshin for the Central League crown at the end of the season in 2008, then took the Japan Series down to the wire before losing to Seibu. Look for a bounce-back year from Sun-Yeop Lee. The departure of Koji Uehara creates an opportunity for someone like Kentaro Nishimura, Shun Tohno, or Takahiko Nomaguchi to step up.
Key Players: Nishimura, Tohno, Nomaguchi

3. Hiroshima Carp: The Carp took a big step forward last season despite the loss of ace Hiroki Kuroda to the Dodgers. The lineup is respectable 1-5 and they have three good starters in Colby Lewis, Kan Ohtake, and Kenta Maeda. Look for a breakout year from Maeda.
Key Player: K Maeda

4. Yakult Swallows: Yakult has a number of good arms in its bullpen, some young starters that could develop, and Japan’s top hitter in Norichika Aoki. The big concern with the Swallows is a lack of team power, so their ability to compete for a playoff spot will depend on whether or not some of the non-Aoki batters can hit for average.
Key Players: Jaime D’Antona, Yoshinori, Tatsunori Masubuchi

5. Chunichi Dragons: The Dragons finished third last year despite being outscored by 21 by opponents on the season. This year they’ve subtracted Kenshin Kawakami, Norihiro Nakamura, and Tyrone Woods and have replaced them with untested players. I expect a fall in the standings.
Key Players: Tony Blanco, Kei Nomoto, Kazuki Yoshimi

6. Yokohama BayStars: Yokohama had by far the worst pitching in the Central last season, and despite moving Hayato Terahara back into the rotation, retaining Daisuke Miura, and adding Ryan Glynn, I don’t think they have enough depth to get out of the cellar. I think they’ll be more competitive than last year though.
Key Players: Terahara

Any thoughts? Pacific League is coming up next.

Note that I haven’t included the most obvious teams here; by now it isn’t a surprise if the Red Sox, Dodgers or Mets are in the mix for a Japanese player. Nor is it meant to be an exhaustive list; there’s always room for surprises.

Texas Rangers: Pacific Rim scout Jim Colborn’s name shows up in the Japanese media fairly frequently. Colborn coached in Japan in the early 90’s and has Kazuo Fukumori and Yukinaga Maeda. He was last seen scouting a couple of pitchers from Hosei University. Texas also had the top dollar offer for Junichi Tazawa but were rebuffed for Boston.

Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays set up a Pacific Rim department last offseason, headed up by former Nippon Ham Fighter Rob Ducey. They also signed lefthanders Ken Takahashi and Shigeki Noguchi to minor league deals over the offseason, though Noguchi failed his physical. The linked report indicates they’ll be looking for more central pieces as the department ramps up.

San Francisco Giants: Not much to go on here, but Asia scout John Cox’s name has shown up in the media a couple of times. I can’t think of a notable Japanese/NPB signing the Giants have made (unless we count Masashi Murakami) so we’ll see if they make one this year.

New York Yankees: Gene Michael made a trip to Japan last year, reportedly to watch Yu Darvish. I expect that they’ll continue to monitor top guys like Darvish and Norichika Aoki as longer-term prospects, but not be hunting for bargains or middling players.

Atlanta Braves: Signed Kenshin Kawakami and Yoshinori Yamarin last season, and also made a strong bid for Tazawa. Atlanta has also signed minor league-level amateurs such as Ryohei Shimabukuro and Kazuhiro Takeoka in the past.

I’ll have a list of guys they might be competing for within a week or so.

• Koji Uehara started for the Orioles today, going scoreless two innings, and allowing a hit and a walk while striking out three. 
• Kenshin Kawakami got the start for the Braves, and also went two scoreless, allowing a hit, and struck out one. 
• Sanspo has pics of both Uehara and Kawakami.
• Junichi Tazawa pitched one inning against Boston College, getting three outs on four pitches, all fastballs. “I wanted to throw a breaking pitch,” commented Tazawa.
• Ken Kadokura pitched an inning in relief in the Cubs Feb 25 game agains the Dodgers. “Looking back on today’s debut game, I was just happy to be there,” said Kadokura.
• Katsuhiko Maekawa hasn’t appeared in a game yet as far as I know, but he’s impressed so far in the Cardinals camp. According to Sanpo, the Cards have five spots open on their pitching staff and Maekawa is an option. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Kawakami is in camp with the Braves and has been working on adapting to the MLB ball. According to Sponichi, he threw 37 pitches in his most recent bullpen season, working in his cutter and curveball. This is a contrast to his approach in Japan, where he would only throw curves and fastballs until just before opening day.

Kawakami seems like he has a little work ahead of him in getting used to the MLB ball. The righty was quoted as saying  ”suddenly throwing all these breaking pitches, well, there was some unease…” before adding, “I didn’t get comfortable with my breaking pitches. I want to talk to the pitching coach and come up with a solution that works for me”.

David Ross, who caught Kawakami’s bullpen session, said that Kawakami’s curveball reminded him of his former Dodgers teammate, Kazuhisa Ishii.