NPB Tracker

A couple days ago, Yakult fireballer Yoshinori (Sato) hit 161 km/h on the gun, blowing by the previous high water mark of 158 for Japanese NPB pitchers, which had been reached three times. Yakult lost the game 9-3 to Yokohama, but Yoshinori left with his team down 3-2. He’s been pitching well recently.

There’s a little discrepancy here — the data I collect and aggregate shows that Yoshinori’s top velocity in that game was 156 km/h. But the stadium gun showed 161, so we’ll give it to him. Also, Yoshinori deserves credit for learning how to pitch this year. And he seemingly has his head in the right place, commenting on his blog: “With modesty, I’m happy to record Japan’s fastest pitch, it gives me confidence. However, yesterday I wanted to win by any means.” Yakult is fighting for a playoff spot, after a terrible start to the season.

While we’re on the subject of velocity, Jingu has a reputation for having a hot gun, but I think Rakuten’s gun at K-Sta has been worse at times this year. I offer up the following evidence, presented in miles per hour:

• Yu Darvish recorded the fastest pitch of his NPB career last month at K-Sta, and then promptly bettered that mark in his next appearance there.
• Last week when I saw a headline that Toshiya Sugiuchi showed great velocity against Rakuten, I immediately wondered if it was in a game played at K-Sta. Yep. The gun readings from that game had Sugiuchi’s slowest fastball at 90 mph, which is where is usually where he maxes out.
• The Sugiuchi observation prompted me to look at SoftBank’s other finesse lefty, Tsuyoshi Wada. His hardest throwing game of the year was June 26 at K-Sta.
• Looking at a Rakuten pitcher, Kouhei Hasebe shows a big home/road split on velocity. Some recent examples of his average fastball velocity: July 28 at SoftBank – 86.05, August 4 at home vs Lotte – 90.05, August 14 at Chiba Lotte – 84.10, August 21 at home vs SoftBank: 89.84.

The moral of the story: velocity charts are to be taken with a grain of salt.

Only the most eagle-eyed readers will notice this, but I just updated the navigation bar, retiring last year’s free agents page, and replacing it with (surprise) an updated page for this season.

This year I’m going to start with a small list of players, and build it up over time. Here’s what I have so far:

International Free Agents

Hiro Kobayashi (RHP, Chiba Lotte Marines, Data): Kobayashi had a lengthy career as an underrated starter before moving to the bullpen in 2010, where he has been very effective. Kobayashi doesn’t have a power arm, but attacks the strike zone.

Chang Yong Lim (RHP, Yakult Swallows, Data): Certainly the top arm available in the international pool, the 34 year-old reliever had flirtations with MLB prior to moving to Japan. It would be interesting to see how his unusual combination of a low arm angle and velocity play at the MLB level.

Brian Falkenborg (LHP, SoftBank Hawks, Data): Falkenborg has dramatically improved his control in Japan (61:7 K:BB in 2010 as of August 12; 61:9 in 2009), and shown good velocity. SoftBank will want to bring him back, but he’ll be a candidate for MLB teams need righty bullpen depth.

Synopsis: the year of the righthanded reliever.

Domestic Free Agents

Seiichi Uchikawa (IF/OF, Yokohama BayStars): The best bat on the domestic market, Uchikawa downplayed his free agency when he qualified, saying he’d need time to think about it. If he decides he wants to play elsewhere in Japan, he’ll have the usual suitors (Hanshin, Yomiuri).

Tsuyoshi Wada (LHP, SoftBank Hawks, Data): Wada has qualified for free agency, but has already commented that “there’s absolutely no reason to exercise”. We’ll see what happens when he qualifies to move to MLB.

Munenori Kawasaki (IF, SoftBank Hawks): Kawasaki is eligible for NPB free agency after the season, but according to Sponichi, wants to hold out for a chance at MLB after next season.

Hisasahi Iwakuma (RHP, Rakuten Golden Eagles, Data): Iwakuma has qualified for domestic free agency, but is already under contract for 2011. He’s one to watch next year.

Synopsis: wait ’til next year.

Posting Candidates

Wei-Yin Chen (LHP, Chunichi Dragons, Data): Chen is an interesting case – he’s registered as a foreign player, but doesn’t have contract language allowing him to become a free agent if he chooses, as the MLB veterans that play in Japan typically do. As such, he subject to the posting system as his only means to move to MLB prior to hitting free agency. He was outspoken about wanting to be posted after last season, and hired Alan Nero to represent him, so I expect him to ask again this offseason. He’s 25, lefthanded, and has an electric arm, so I would expect him to command a healthy transfer fee.

Kyuji Fujikawa (RHP, Hanshin Tigers, Data): Japan’s best strikeout reliever has talked for years about being posted; Hanshin has insisted that Kei Igawa was an exception and that Fujikawa won’t be posted. I profiled Fujikawa way back in June 2008.

Yu Darvish (RHP, Nippon Ham, Data): The rumblings that Darvish wants to be posted have picked up this year, but then again every year there are rumors of an imminent posting and it hasn’t happened yet. I’d say there’s maybe a 1% chance that Darvish gets posted this year. He’s still about four years away from full, international free agency.

Synopsis: I think we see Chen posted, at the most.

It’s not year that we see a 20 game winner in NPB. The last pitcher to pull it off was Hisashi Iwakuma, with his remarkable 21-win season in 2008. The last time prior to that was 2003, when Kei Igawa and Kazumi Saito each won 20, and shared the Sawamura Award. Bonus points will be awarded to the reader who can name the last 20-game winner prior to Igawa and Saito.

At the halfway point this season, a number of pitchers have won enough to have a shot at 20:

So will any of them do it? Assuming good health, each one of these guys should get 10-13 more starts this year, so, as always, winning 20 will require both effectiveness and luck.

If I were to place a bet on one of these pitchers winning 20, I think I’d reluctantly go with Tohno. The Giants will keep winning and he’s been very effective, but Tohno doesn’t go deep into games and will rely on his bullpen to lock down wins for him. The fact that Maeda, the only other Central Leaguer on this list, plays for the also-ran Hiroshima seems to work against him, but remember that Iwak

I could see one of the Pacific League pitchers making a run too, but the Pa-League is so balanced this year it’s hard to guess which one.

News and notes on the season so far

…In Japanese:

• Juan Morillo has been demoted to ni-gun. Unfortunately, his lack of command has translated to NPB. His velocity has been as advertised though.
• On the flipside, Matt Murton is off to a hot start in Japan, having reached base safely in all 13 games so far this season. His slash line is a robust .407/.484/.556.
• Takayuki Kishi took a no-hitter into the 7th against Orix on the 6th, and finished with a one-hit shutout. Bonus points to those of you who can recall Japan’s last no-hitter.
• Tsuyoshi Wada set a new career best with 15 strikeouts against Lotte on April 8.
• The Hanshin Tigers picked up lefty Yusuke Kawasaki for cash from the Chiba Lotte Marines. The last trade that Hanshin made with Lotte worked out pretty well for the Tigers, netting them Yasuyuki Kubo.
• The Japanese baseball media has an uncanny ability find and point out obscure streaks. Examples? Last week, Nippon Ham’s Kensuke Tanaka’s streak at-bats without hitting into a double play ended at 862. On the 11th, Hiroshima’s Tomonori Maeda went yard for the first time in 686 days.
• In a rather forward-thinking move, Nippon Ham is limiting Yu Darvish’s pitch counts to 120 per start. Darvish surpassed 140 pitches in two of his first three starts, and Ham is concerned about keeping him healthy for the whole season.
• Belated congratulations to Shingo Takatsu, who has now saved games in Japan, the US, Korea and Taiwan. I hope he plays Winter League ball somewhere this year.

…and in English:

• Congratulations to Colby Lewis on winning his first start in his return engagment in Texas.
• Baseball Happenings conducted an interview with Tuffy Rhodes, who reflected on his career in Japan. Is he an NPB Hall of Famer? For me he is.

File this one under shameless self-promotion — I contributed a couple of thoughts to Jon Paul Morosi’s recent article on the idea of a MLB vs NPB World Series. One of the questions Jon asked me was if any of the recent NPB champs would have had a chance against their counterpart World Series winner. I went with the 2003 Fukuoka Daiei Hawks, who had four MLB-caliber starters in Kazumi Saito, Tsuyoshi Wada, Toshiya Sugiuchi and Nagisa Arakaki, as well as future MLB’ers Kenji Johjima and Tadahito Iguchi.

I think that MLB would have the upper hand on NPB nearly every year, but looking at the last ten years, I think there are a couple of matchups where the NPB team would hold there own.

2009 — Yankees vs Yomiuri: I have a hard time seeing this year’s Giants team putting up much of a fight against the Yankees, but it would have been a great event. Dicky Gonzales had a great year, but I can’t see him shutting down the Yankees the way Cliff Lee did.

2008 — Phillies vs Seibu: I’d score this one a little closer. Seibu featured a couple of strong pitchers in Hideaki Wakui and Takayuki Kishi, a good infield defense, and a well-balanced lineup. Cole Hamels strikes me as a guy that NPB players would be able to hit, but he was really on his game in the 2008 post-season.

2007 — Red Sox vs Chunichi: The Dragons had almost everything you want to see in a short series: a strong defense, a good bullpen, some on-base skills, and three-run homer power. What they didn’t have was a lot of standout starting pitching beyond Kenshin Kawakami, though Kenta Asakura has always been good when healthy, and Daisuke Yamai-Hitoki Iwase combined with for a perfect game to close the Japan Series. Of course, Boston pummeled Colorado in the ’07 World Series, and would have had an edge over Chunichi.

2006 — Cardinals vs Nippon Ham: Yu Darvish was on the winning 2006 Fighters, but hadn’t yet broken out as Japan’s best pitcher. Tomoya Yagi Nippon Ham’s staff ace, and the Fighters got it done with strong, balanced offense. I actually had tickets to the World Series in 2006, had it been in Oakland, but alas the A’s got stomped in the ALCS by the shockingly good Tigers. I fully expected the Tigers to stomp the Cardinals too, but the Cardinals just played better. So I think the Fighters would have had a chance against the Cards.

2005 — White Sox vs Lotte: I grew up a White Sox fan, and followed Hanshin in Japan, so I’ll have to try extra hard to be objective with this one. 2005 was a case of both champions getting hot at the right time. The White Sox steamrolled everyone in their path in the 2005 postseason, and Marines destroyed Hanshin in the Japan Series. Baseball Prospectus simulated a hypothetical series between the two teams, and the White Sox won, 4-1, but the Marines were competitive.

2004 — Red Sox vs Seibu: This would have been interesting — Daisuke Matsuzaka vs his future team. The Lions also had a still-effective Fumiya Nishiguchi and a once-promising Chang Chih-Chia. They would have had to go up against a Red Sox team that came back from 3-0 against the Yankees, and then swept the Cardinals. So destiny would have worked against the Lions in this one.

2003 — Marlins vs Daiei: As I said earlier, I think this would have been a good series. Daiei’s biggest weakness was their bullpen, but they could have gone with a three-man rotation and stuck a starter (maybe Arakaki) in the bullpen. The more I think about this matchup, the more I think Daiei really would have had the edge in this one.

2002 — Angels vs Yomiuri: I think this would have been another good series. The 2002 Giants featured Hideki Matsui and Koji Uehara, who were both really in their primes (2002 was Matsui’s near-Triple Crown season); as well as Masumi Kuwata, Kimiyasu Kudoh, and Hideki Okajima. I think they would have given the Angels a good series.

2001 — Diamondbacks vs Yakult: The 2001 World Series is one of my all-time favorites (along with 1991 and 2005), so I’m a little biased here. Yakult had a balanced lineup with a good defense, and four future MLB’ers: Kazuhisa Ishii, Shingo Takatsu, Akinori Iwamura, and Ryota Igarashi. So maybe they could have taken a game or two, but it’s hard to pick against Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in a short series.

2000 — Yankees vs Yomiuri: The 2000 Japan Series was the first I was actually present in Japan for, so again I have fond memories of this one too (my three favorite players in Japan, for a time, where Okajima, Akira Etoh and Darrell May). Anyway, this Giants team would have gone up against the last World Series winner from the Yank’s late-90’s dynasty.

Alright, you’ve sat through 700+ words from me, if you’re still here, what are your thoughts?

Japanese

• Yokohama dai-veteran Kimiyasu Kudoh was assessed with the first ever ball called due to the 15-second rule. He got hit with the call while shaking off signs in the 7th inning of Yokohama’s 10-3 loss to the Giants on the 18th.
• Kudoh’s fellow geezer Hideki Irabu has made his first appearance for Kochi, throwing one inning in a practice game against Shikoku Bank. Gen relays a report that Yokohama might kick the tires on Irabu this offseason.
• The Hiroshima Carp are holding a tryout on September 19 at Mazda Stadium. To qualify you must be between ages 17 and 24 and be at least 175cm (5’8) tall.
• Hiroki Kuroda is playing catch again after his horrific accident. He joked, “I’m glad I didn’t forget how to throw”, though he is still experiencing headaches.

English

• If you haven’t seen the Goro Shigeno Koko Yakyu blog, you should check it out — its easily the best way to follow the Koshien tournament in English.
• Bloomberg ran a story on Yusei Kikuchi.
• Tsuyoshi Wada is looking to return to SoftBank some time in September.
• Brandon Siefken breaks down some of the hardest working starters in Japan.
• This isn’t baseball related but it illustrates the differences between Japanese and English as well as the challenges of machine translation.

On Sunday I posted pitching data for Tsuyoshi Wada. Today let’s take a look at SoftBank’s other diminutive lefty ace, Toshiya Sugiuchi. This data is taken from his most recent start, a loss to Rakuten.

Here’s the chart:

And the breakdown:

Compared to Wada, Sugiuchi doesn’t rely on his fastball quite as much, and in general mixes it up more. He also has two softer breaking pitches, and based on this data, commands his curveball well.

Last week, I asked readers for suggestions on which pitchers to look at in my velocity charts series. Based the responses I got, here’s the order I’m going in:

1. Tsuyoshi Wada
2. Toshiya Sugiuchi
3. Top closers: Kyuji Fujikawa, Takahiko Mahara, Hitoki Iwase
4. Tetsuya Utsumi
5. A look at Nippon Ham’s secondary pitchers: Sakamoto, Tadano, and Sweeney

You can see all the velocity charts I’ve done so far here.

So let’s take a look at Wada’s most recent outing, a loss to the Rakuten Eagles in which he was outdueled by Satoshi Nagai. Here’s Wada’s velocity chart:

And a break down of his pitches:

I was surprised to see how much Wada relies on his fastball, and how many strikes he gets with it. I didn’t see this game, but I’m inferring that he uses his slider and fork to set up his fastball. He also only threw three off-speed breaking pitches.

The NPB season opened last night, 4/3, and I was remiss in only giving it a passing mention. Here are some highlights:

• Hisashi Iwakuma got the better of Yu Darvish, with Rakuten beating Nippon Ham 3-1. Darvish pitched a complete game in a losing effort, while Iwakuma went six innings, allowing one run while throwing only 59 pitches. Highlights are available on YouTube.
• Tsuyoshi Wada struck out 14 Orix Buffaloes in an 8-0 shutout victory. SoftBank may have to prove me wrong about their offense.
• Colby Lewis defeated countryman Seth Greisinger in the Carp’s 6-3 win over the Giants.
• Kevin Mench went 0-4 in his Hanshin debut, continuing his spring slump, but the Tigers beat the Swallows 5-2.

All the box scores in Japanese but I’ll have an English source for them soon. The WBC live chats were fun, I’m going to try doing that again during the season, if a) the time difference is reasonable and b) we can find a reliable live stream.

And in other brief news, yu-darvish.com is now an NPB Tracker property.

It’s much harder to predict the standings for the Pacific League as the teams are so evenly matched. But I’ll give it a shot.

1. Seibu Lions: I think we’ll see a little regression from Okawari Nakamura and Kazuyuki Hoashi, but a better performance from Hideaki Wakui. Overall it looks like the Lions have enough to repeat.
Key Players: Wakui, Hoashi, whoever gets the most at-bats at 1st base

2. Nippon Ham Fighters: Nippon Ham was actually outscored by their opponents last year. I’m putting them here because I believe that they have the pitching and defense to win close games, and that Sho Nakata will turn up at some point during the season and provide a little offense.The new additions to the bullpen have the task of replacing Michael Nakamura as well.
Key Players: Nakata, Ryan Wing, Masanori Hayashi

3. Chiba Lotte Marines: I didn’t think I’d have the Marines making the playoffs, but I’m putting them in third because they have a solid front four in their rotation, and no real holes in their lineup. Hopefully Bobby V can find a way to keep Tadahito Iguchi and Shunichi Nemoto both in the lineup, as Nemoto broke out last year with a .296/.369/.430 line.
Key Players: Bobby V, Yoshihisa Naruse, Yuuki Karakawa

4. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles: The Eagles have two WBC heroes at the top of their rotation (Hisashi Iwakuma, Masahiro Tanaka), a couple of solid mid-rotation guys (Darrell Rasner, Hideaki Asai), and some power in the middle of their lineup (Norihiro Nakamura, Fernando Seguignol, Takeshi Yamasaki). But on the other hand they have some holes in their lineup and bullpen.
Key Players: the bullpen

5. Orix Buffaloes: Manager Daijiro Ohishi took over in May of last year and lead the Buffaloes to a seemingly improbable playoff run. Looking back, the Buffaloes pitched better than I realized, with a 3.93 team era and four starters with sub-4:00 eras and at least 10 wins. If the pitching staff can repeat that performance, and the aging lineup of foreign sluggers holds up, they’ll be competitive. If not, look for a B-class finish.
Key Players: Tuffy Rhodes, Alex Cabrera, Jose Fernandez, Greg LaRocca

6. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks: It’s hard to pick the Hawks to finish this low with the amazing rotation depth they have — Tsuyoshi Wada, Toshiya Sugiuchi, Nagisa Arakaki, Shota Ohba, Kenji Ohtonari, Kameron Loe, Kazumi Saito (if he can come back from his injuries) and rookie Shingo Tatsumi. But on the flipside, their lineup just isn’t what it used to be. The Hawks hit just 99 home runs last year and haven’t added any significant bats. They’re hoping for a return to form from aging sluggers Hiroki Kokubo and Hitoshi Tamura, who have been shells of their former selves in recent years.
Key Players: Kokubo, Tamura

It was tough to pick any of these teams to finish last, because the league is so balanced and all the teams have strengths. It seems likely that Seibu will finish in the top 3 and SoftBank will finish in the bottom 3, but everything else is up for grabs. What are your thoughts?