Notes to share about a couple of FA-eligible players:
If Ryota Igarashi chooses to make the MLB jump, he’ll do so with agent Arn Tellem on his side. According to the Sponichi report, Igarashi is undecided on what he wants to do, and is also considering moving to another team in Japan. Tellem notably represents Hideki Matsui, and has to date negotiated $73m worth of contracts on his behalf. Igarashi is currently in the States taking in the ALCS.
Saburo Ohmura, known by his first name in Japan, is hinting that he’s going to stay put again this offseason. Saburo was eligible for international free agency last year, and announced that he was going to try MLB, but changed his mind and re-signed for one year with Lotte. After posting a career with a .314/.377/.514 slash line and 22 home runs, I thought we might see him take another shot at MLB. Maybe he’ll waffle again this year.
That got your attention, didn’t it? This isn’t about Kikuchi though.
Sanspo is reporting that Aomori University righty Shota Ichinoseki is looking to begin his pro career overseas. Ichinoseki is a rather obscure player; he didn’t have a page on Draft Reports until this news broke, and even Deanna has never mentioned him. There’s no indication that he appears on any NPB team’s list of draft candidates. The 21 year-old student’s fastball tops out at 144 kmph (90mph) and he compliments it five breaking pitches including a slider and a forkball.
Ichinoseki is apparently willing to consider playing independent league ball in the US, and is planning is to travel to Taiwan to work out in front of MLB personnel in November. Sanspo quoted him as saying, “playing overseas is something I can only do now. I want to do it while I can.”
Lost in the furor over guys like Kikuchi and Junichi Tazawa is the fact that for some kids, playing overseas represents an opportunity that is otherwise not available. I hope Ichinoseki gets a chance to play somewhere.
It looks like we could to see a wave of Japanese major leaguers make their respective ways back to Japan this offseason. I don’t expect all these guys to go back to Japan, but some of them will, and I’ve listed in order of probability of actually returning.
Kenji Johjima — appears to be headed to Hanshin, perhaps as early as the 25th.
Masahide Kobayashi — Hanshin, Orix, Yokohama and Lotte have all be mentioned as suitors for KobaMasa.
Yasuhiko Yabuta — Yabuta’s contract with the Royals quietly expired earlier in the month, and he hasn’t been in the news lately but I’ve seen both Yokohama and Lotte mentioned as interested.
Ken Takahashi — is weighing a return to Japan against taking another shot at MLB. Hiroshima seems to be the obvious destination.
So Taguchi — Orix wants to bring Taguchi back to where he spent the first part of his career.
Tomo Ohka — I think he’d rather stay in 3A than go back to Japan, but there has been speculation that Yokohama would have him back. Ohka started his career by the bay.
Hideki Matsui — For a while during the summer, it looked like both Hanshin and Yomiuri were going to go after Matsui, but his MLB stock has risen and that talk has mostly died down.
Akinori Iwamura — Aki has stated that his first preference is to remain in Tampa Bay, but Hanshin is reportedly interested in bringing him in. Since Yakult posted him they should still own his NPB rights, so I’m not sure if that move is feasible.
And as a special bonus:
Eric Hinske — Hinske wouldn’t be an NPB returnee, but the Hawks are reportedly interested in signing him this year. They had him on their list last offseason as well.
The mid-week Climax Series games are played well past my bedtime (if anyone has a justin.tv archive link, please do share), but I am following along asynchronously as usual.
Nippon Ham won Game 1 of the second stage of the Pacific League’s Climax Series on a walk-off grand slam hit by Termel Sledge. Deanna live-blogged it and a clip is available on YouTube.
I can’t hear about a walk-off grand slam without recalling Kintetsu’s 2001 Pacific League clincher, which is my favorite walk-off of all time. How many other big games have been won on a walk-off grand slam?
The Yusei Kikuchi watch marches on. Multiple sources out of Japan are saying that the soonest we’ll see a decision from the promising lefty is Oct 24 JST, and Sanspo quoted Hanamaki Higaashi baseball director Hiroyuki Sasuga as saying “he’s having discussions with his parents in the next few days, and we’ll hold a press conference when he’s made a final decision on how to proceed.” According to Nikkan Sports, Kikuchi has a self-imposed deadline of the 26th.
My draft coverage outside of Yusei Kikuchi has been pretty weak this year, but I have a week to catch up. I’ll start by pointing out how awesome Kazuhito Futagami’s and Masato Kiyashiki’s names are in Japanese.
二神一人 (Futagami Kazuhiro): “two gods, one person”
Futagami is a top college pitcher and should be drafted in the first round after the Kikuchi fallout takes place. Kiyashiki is a high school catcher who appears on some teams’ high pick list, and could sneak in to the first round as well.
Yusei Kikuchi has wrapped up his meetings and now has some thinking to do. It may take him a little while to sort things out, based on comments made after the meetings: “(Japan and the US) are but wonderful. I’m more torn now than I was before the meetings.”
Mariners: has Ichiro, more international than other clubs.
Mets: offered a dedicated translator. Scout Isao Ojimi was quoted as saying “Yusei is a world treasure.”
Yankees: no comment to media
Indians: not at 18, but will have MLB ability in three or four years
And here’s a translation of a brief interview that appeared on MSN Japan:
-after meeting with 20 Japanese and American teams, are you feeling tightened up?
“It’s a wavering 50-50. I’m more torn now than before I had these meetings, in which I made new discoveries. Meeting with each team for 30 minutes was short, I thought I would like to hear them for longer. I think that the MLB teams traveled this far was a great honor.”
-comments on the impression left by both leagues after the meeings
“I thought both were great, and I want to go to both. Japan’s development system is gentle, and in America there is the stepped system of rookie ball, 1A, 2A,3A and the Majors”
-you met a major leaguer
“He had an aura of playing in the best place in the world.”
-what will the deciding factor be?
“I can comfortable play in either league. In Japan, there won’t be any problems with food or training. Even in the Majors, there are teams offering to provide a translator, so there’s no uneasiness. If I go to America, I believe the teams that said ‘don’t worry’. My manager and parents both said ‘we’ll leave it up to you’, so I want to come to a conclusion without regret.
The NPB draft is the 29th. We’ll see what happens between now and then.
Now, it’s getting interesting. Yusei Kikuchi has completed his first round of meetings with MLB clubs. The media reports lack the level of detail that the reports on the NPB meetings had. I think this is reflective of the Japanese teams wanting to use the media to lure, Kikuchi, while MLB teams are being tighter-lipped. Here’s a rundown.
Rangers:Â sent Jim Colborn and lefty Derek Holland; espoused the team’s development system and let Kikuchi ask questions.
Dodgers:Â sent Logan White, who was quoted in Nikkan Sports: “we didn’t tell him not to go to Japanese team” and the Yomiuri: “he’s among the top class of amateurs from any country. He certainly has the ability to play in the majors.”
SF Giants: pointed out that the Giants have a Japanese trainer for their 3A team; explained the team’s methods of practicing and training.
Red Sox: did not to the the media; it’s unknown what was discussed.
So if any financial details have been discussed so far, no one’s saying. Meetings conclude tomorrow with the Mariners, Mets, Yankees and Indians.
On Day Two, Yusei Kikuchi met with the eight remaining NPB teams, thus concluding the NPB portion of his schedule. Word is that he’s still 50-50 on which league he chooses, and that should he choose NPB, he doesn’t have a preference on which team he plays for.
Here’s what Kikuchi had to say about the meetings: “I like baseball talk, so it was easy to have the talks. There are a lot of fans in Japan, and solid player development systems. In the case I play in Japan and am drafted, I would give my best effort to any of the 12 teams.”
And his manage, the omnipresent Hiroshi Sasaki: “Each team has it’s own system for maturing individuals. To wait until the last moment before the draft to answer would be an annoyance to the teams, so we should give a decision as quickly as possible after the MLB meetings end.”
Here’s what each of the teams had to say about the situation, again summarized and paraphrased by me:
Chunichi: “Even if there’s only a 1% chance, we’re still going to take the plunge on that arm. We’ll go every day (to see him) until the end of March (when the signing period ends).” Chunichi Chief Scout Hayakawa quoted in Sponichi.
Nippon Ham: “He had extreme interest in things like ‘would Darvish coach me technically?” GM Yamada quoted in Sponichi. Nippon Ham also told Kikuchi “they will select him with their first pick” to which Kikuchi replied “thank you very much”.
Rakuten: “He’s a franchise player. By all means, we want him to play in Tohoku. We’re still a young team, so let’s make team history.” Rakuten team representive Yoneda quoted in Daily Sports.
Yokohama: Yokohama’s first pick was thought to be slugger Yoshitomo Tsutusgo, but chief scout Horii has revealed that Kikuchi is still in the picture. Quoted in Nikkan Sports, Horii told Kikuchi “we haven’t decided on Tsutsugo as our first pick.”
Yakult: “By all means we want this treasure of the baseball world to perform in Japan.” Unattributed quote from the Daily Yomiuri.
Hiroshima: The Carp are reportedly out on Kikuchi and will take Seiho HS righty Takeru Imamura, the pitcher who beat Kikuchi’s Hanamaki Higashi at Koshien, with their first pick.
SoftBank: Like the Carp, the Hawks are looking at Imamura as an option for their first pick, and have mostly been quiet on Kikuchi. SoftBank has plenty of pitching, so Tsutsugo probably makes the most sense for them.
Conventional American logic would dictate that Yokohama BayStars, who finished last yet again this year, should have the first overall pick in the draft. That’s not how it works in NPB. For an explanation, please see Ryo’s draft primer.
It’s being reported that as many as ten teams could choose Kikuchi in the first round, which break the previous record of eight set in 1989 by Hideo Nomo. I’d be little surprised if that happens, but if he stays in Japan he’ll have plenty of suitors. There’s really no downside to selecting Kikuchi in the first round (unless you really want Hisayoshi Chono); even if a majority of teams choose him, only one will get to his rights, and most of the other good players will still be on the table.
After a one-day breather, Kikuchi will begin meeting with MLB teams on the 20th. It’ll be interesting to see if the teams come armed with financial offers in hand. We already know what the NPB teams are restricted to a max bonus of about $1m, incentives of about $500k, and first year salary about $150k. We can reasonably expect MLB clubs to outbid NPB here, but by how much and under what terms remains to be seen. This is where the saga really starts, and we’ll learn more over the next few days.
edit – corrected number of teams that drafted Nomo.
Patrick » 17 October 2009 » In npb » Comments Off on Central League Predictions: How’d I Do?
Okay, so now that the regular season is in the books, let’s take a look and see how my Central League and Pacific League predictions played out. We’ll take a look at the Central first and do the Pacific in the next post.
(listed in order of actual results, my predictions are in parentheses)
1. Yomiuri Giants (2) — I picked the Giants to finish second. In 2008 Hanshin led for most of the year, before choking down the stretch, and I thought they’d make it this year. I was dead wrong about that, and the Giants wound up dominating from wire to wire. I thought someone from the secondary group of pitchers would have to step up, but the guys who did weren’t among my three breakout candidates (Kentaro Nishimura, Shun Tohno, and Takahiko Nomaguchi) — they were Yakult castoff Dicky Gonzales and Dominican prospect Wirfin Obispo.
2. Chunichi Dragons (5) — I was way off here. Chunichi put up a mediocre year in 2008, and lost three key contributors (Kenshin Kawakami, Nori Nakamura, Tyrone Woods) and I thought we’d see them slip further this year. Turns out I didn’t respect the Dragons’ depth highly enough. I did, however, correctly identify two of the key players for the Dragons this season, choosing Tony Blanco and Kazuki Yoshimi along with rookie Kei Nomoto. Nomoto was a bit of a disappointment, but Blanco and Yoshimi were outstanding.
3. Yakult Swallows (4) — Yakult took a step forward in 2009, sneaking in to the playoffs despite finishing one game under .500. Norichika Aoki overcame a horrific first half to finish at .303, and Aaron Guiel bounced back from a sub-par 2008 to hit 27 home runs. Two of my key players — Jaime D’Antona (.276, 21 hr) and Yoshinori (121 IP, 3.50 ERA)– were solid, while the other Tatsunori Masubuchi (one game, 12.60 era) was not. Yakult did get outscored by their opponents by 48 runs this year.
4. Hanshin Tigers (1) — My key players, Takahiro Arai and Kevin Mench, failed to meet expectations, and so did the Tigers. Mench’s time in Japan was particularly disastrous, flaming out after only 15 games. Hanshin’s trio of veterans Tomoaki Kanemoto, Akihiro Yano and Tsuyoshi Shimoyanagi started to show some signs of aging as well.
5. Hiroshima Carp (3) –The step forward I envisioned after a solid 2008 season didn’t materialize for the Carp, despite the good vibes from the beautiful new Mazda Stadium. The rotation was solid 1-3 and the Carp added American sluggers Scott McClain and Andy Phillips mid-season, but it wasn’t enough to win consistently. My key player, Kenta Maeda, was better than his 8-14 record would indicate.
6. Yokohama BayStars (6) — The one prediction I nailed, except that I thought they’d be a little more competitive this year. Wrong. Yokohama was again a doormat, suffering to the tune of a .354 winning percentage, getting outscored by 188 runs and losing it’s manager in the process. My key man, Hayato Terahara, was limited to 83 innings of work.
Synopsis: I guess I was close enough on everything except Chunichi and Hanshin.I thought the league would be a little more competitive, but the way things played out Yomiuri and Chunichi were way ahead of everyone else.