NPB Tracker

Koshien wrapped up yesterday with a wild finale. If you missed it live, you can still check it out in the Justin.tv archives. Standard justin.tv url-tweaking applies. On to the links…

Japanese Articles:

• Nikkan Sports reports that over 1000 spectators were on hand to see Hideki Irabu’s Kochi debut, but no one in attendance happened to be an NPB scout.
• I’ve seen some variation on this, but I’ll go with Nikkan Sports again: eight of the 12 NPB teams reportedly intend to make Yusei Kikuchi their first pick in this year’s NPB draft. For more on how the NPB draft works, please see our primer on it.
• The swine flu appears to be back in business in Japan. Five Chunichi Dragons, including players and team personnel, have come down with the swine flu. Orix has banned jet balloons once again in an effort to prevent the further spread of the flu.
• Orix LOOGY Tsuyoshi Kikuchihara has qualified for domestic free agency.

English Articles:

• Goro Shigeno live-blogged yesterday’s Koshien final. Despite losing, Nihon Bunri put a great never-say-die effort.
• With Koshien over, Japan will send a team of high school all-stars to Compton, CA for a three-game series against US all-stars. Gen has the Japanese roster, and before you ask, no Yusei Kikuchi will not take part, ostensibly due to his back injury.
• Toshiya Sugiuchi struck out 15 Nippon Ham Fighters on Sunday and has quietly put up another excellent season.
• I’m no Deanna, but I’ve travelled a bit and taken a few pictures. I decided to share a few of the better ones as desktop backgrounds. Give ’em a look if you’re interested.

Japanese:

• Kazuhiro Kiyohara made his first appearance in a Seibu uniform in a while, swinging through the ceremonial first pitch on August 22.I’m not sure what Kiyohara’s been up to since retiring, but it looks like it involves getting a tan.
• Hanshin is scouting Korea, reportedly looking at Kim Tae-Gyun of Hanwha and Lee Taek-Keun of the Heroes as potential acquisition targets for this offseason. Lee Bum-Ho and Kim Dong-Ju are also drawing interest from NPB teams. Someone who knows better should check my Romanization of these names.
• Yakult’s Norichika Aoki, in the midst of his worst season as a pro, had his first four-hit game of the year, bringing his average up to .278. Yakult lost the game 7-3 to the Giants.
• Draft Reports has a list of the hardest-throwing pitchers in this year’s Koshien Tournament.Yusei Kikuchi, Takumi Akiyama, and Kenta Imamiya.

English:

• We tweeted the news that Yu Darvish will skip his next start.
• Matt visited Starfin Stadium in Hokkaido recently.
• Deanna went to an Island League game, and sends pictures.
• Gen gives us a look at Japan’s entry in to this year’s Asia AAA Tournament.
• Jim Allen finds out what makes Takuro Ishii tick.
• Non-baseball item du jour: researchers at Tokyo University have developed tangible holograms. Graphics are the area of computer science that I find the most challenging so I’m quite impressed by this.

Hanamaki Higashi has advanced to the semi-finals at Koshien, but not without a little scare — ace pitcher and current MLB scout darling Yusei Kikuchi left the mound in the fifth inning with back pain. Third baseman Takuro Sarukawa took to the hill and finished the game as Hanamaki won in extra innings.

Kikuchi did not appear to be seriously hurt as he watched the game from the top step of the dugout and even joined the team for a conference on the mound. He had his back x-rayed, but no irregularities were found. Said Kikuchi,”there was pain, so just in case, I had it checked. Tomorrow I’m going to take care of my body and not throw. I will consult with my manager about the semi-final game.” I’d be surprised if he doesn’t play.

Meanwhile, Mets GM Omar Minaya has commented on having some interest in the lefty.Gossipy publication ZakZak quotes Minaya as saying, “I haven’t seen him throw myself, but I’ve heard his name. He wants to come to the majors? If so we’ll continue watching him”. Mets Pacific Rim Scout Isao Ojimi commented “I don’t thoughtlessly tell high school students ‘come to the majors’. However he [Kikuchi] is different. If his hope it is to take the challenge, it would be a waste not to.”

I’m going to shelve this topic until the end of Koshien, and just enjoy the rest of the tournament. We’ll see what happens after that.

Japanese

• Yokohama dai-veteran Kimiyasu Kudoh was assessed with the first ever ball called due to the 15-second rule. He got hit with the call while shaking off signs in the 7th inning of Yokohama’s 10-3 loss to the Giants on the 18th.
• Kudoh’s fellow geezer Hideki Irabu has made his first appearance for Kochi, throwing one inning in a practice game against Shikoku Bank. Gen relays a report that Yokohama might kick the tires on Irabu this offseason.
• The Hiroshima Carp are holding a tryout on September 19 at Mazda Stadium. To qualify you must be between ages 17 and 24 and be at least 175cm (5’8) tall.
• Hiroki Kuroda is playing catch again after his horrific accident. He joked, “I’m glad I didn’t forget how to throw”, though he is still experiencing headaches.

English

• If you haven’t seen the Goro Shigeno Koko Yakyu blog, you should check it out — its easily the best way to follow the Koshien tournament in English.
• Bloomberg ran a story on Yusei Kikuchi.
• Tsuyoshi Wada is looking to return to SoftBank some time in September.
• Brandon Siefken breaks down some of the hardest working starters in Japan.
• This isn’t baseball related but it illustrates the differences between Japanese and English as well as the challenges of machine translation.

I put Justin.tv’s archive feature to good use yesterday, and got video for four games:

• Chukyo vs Tohoku at Koshien
• Hanamaki-Higashi vs Nagano at Koshien
• Chiben Wakayama vs Tosho at Koshien
• Yomiuri vs Yokohama

Justin.tv keeps archived footage around for about a week, so enjoy this footage while it’s around.

Note: these links aren’t too likely to work correctly if you’re in Europe or Asia — vagaries of Justin.tv’s archival system.

If you follow NPB Tracker on Twitter, you might have already seen that Yusei Kikuchi won at Koshien again yesterday.

I was watching the game on Justin.tv and availed myself of the site’s watch later feature, so you can check out the game from the beginning by following this link. You can also check out the previous game, Chukyo’s 15-5 drubbing of Nagano here.

I wrote a bit about Kikuchi last spring, but this was my first chance to really see him in a game. He definitely has a live arm, with a heater that maxed out 154 kmph (~96 mph) but mainly seemed to range between 140-148 kmph (86-92mph).  He went to his secondary stuff quite a bit, showing a slider with good movement, and a slow curve that appears to be more of the get-me-over variety at this point. He still has work to do on commanding his breaking pitches, but the movement is there and he changes speeds well.

Kikuchi has gotten public attention from just about every NPB, with Hanshin and Yomiuri reportedly very interested in selecting him. I wrote about the MLB teams that watched in spring as well, notably the Rangers and the Mets. More MLB scouts have been watching him this summer, though I’ve learned to take that kind of news with a grain of salt. Daily Sports reported that the Cubs and Twins were in attendance for his August 17 game, but surprisingly I didn’t see any reports of MLB scouts at yesterday’s game.

Yusei Kikuchi’s Hanamaki-Higashi is facing off against Tohoku at Koshien today. You can bet a few MLB scouts will be on hand for this game. Check it out live below:

Watch live video from Welcome to http://npb.club.tw/ on Justin.tv

Sanspo and others are reporting that Daisuke Matsuzaka is expected to make his return to the Red Sox on September 8th vs the Orioles. Matsuzaka has been training in Florida for the duration of his stay on the DL and should return to Boston with an attitude adjustment. It’ll be interesting to see what happens next in the saga; look out for more on that here in the future.

In other Red Sox news, Junichi Tazawa is getting another MLB start, this time against the Yankees on August 22.

Two Players

One way or another, Stephen Strasburg is going to make history. He’ll either sign with the Nationals for a record-setting bonus, or he won’t and something unprecedented would happen. The idea of Strasburg going to Japan in an attempt to attain free agency was floated and quickly discredited, and rightfully so. The details of why it wouldn’t work have been thoroughly documented so there’s no point in rehashing them here, so it’ll suffice to say that Strasburg is unlikely to get the contract that Scott Boras is seeking from a more restrictive NPB system.

Last week we got the news that Texas Rangers draftee Tanner Scheppers is also considering Japan. Unlike Strasburg, we have some evidence that Scheppers is actually taking action to pursue Japan — he apparently has a work out scheduled for “at least half a dozen NPB teams” (hat tip to John Brooks). Scheppers is a little different from Strasburg — he isn’t nearly as highly touted, he was drafted and unsigned last year by Pittsburgh, and he’s spent the last season playing for the St. Paul Saints, with guys like current Hanshin Tiger Craig Brazell. Scheppers was also drafted from a professional league, so the Rangers get until next year to sign him. Still, if Scheppers’ goal is simply to get a bigger bonus out of the Rangers, a move to Japan is unlikely to achieve his desired result.

Two Other Players

It’s worth pointing out that Strasburg and Scheppers aren’t really in uncharted territory here. In 2002, Cincinnati Reds draftee Mark Schramek tried out with the old Orix Blue Wave after failing to draw an offer he was happy with. Gary Garland recalled the Schramek story in an editorial when the idea of Strasburg to Japan idea was first floated:

I got on the imaginary phone in my head and dialed up Mr. Peabody to ask him to lend me his wayback machine. I set the controls for the heart of the 2002 season, where I came upon one Mark Schramek, who had just been drafted in the first round out of the University of Texas at San Antonio as an infielder by Cincinnati. The Reds, not being entirely forthcoming with the readies that Master Schramek had his heart set on, decided to journey to Japan and contemplate a season with the Orix Blue Wave as leverage to squeeze more money out of the historic Ohio nine. Orix later responded to Schramek’s overtures by demanding that he sign a nine year contract with them. This was pro forma, as Orix was not happy being used as an “ateuma (that is, a horse that is used to get a stud horse all hot and bothered in preparation to be bred with another mare in hopes of producing successful horse racing offspring)” and basically offered Schramek a deal they knew he would refuse.

Schramek went on to have a forgettable four-year run in the minors, never advancing beyond 2A.

A guy that actually kind of made it work was Matt Randel. Randel was not a prospect of even Schramek’s caliber, but  managed to get an NPB contract, and made a few appearances in Japan before having a couple of respectable seasons in Korea. The following summary is taken from the BR Bullpen:

Matt Randel is a highly unusual American pitcher in that over 80% of his baseball career has been in Asia.

Randel was an 84th-round pick of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 1995 amateur draft. He went on to college instead of signing, but dropped out. He got his big break in 1999 when he tried out for the Daiei Hawks and was signed. He allowed hits to 2 of the 3 batters he faced for Daiei in 2000.

Randel next was picked up by the Fort Worth Cats, going 4-5 with a 3.05 ERA in 2002. Had he qualified, he would have been among the Central Baseball League leaders in ERA.

The Yomiuri Giants signed Randel after his stint in Texas and he was 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA in 3 games for them in 2003. The next year, the 27-year-old was 3-2 with a save and a 5.45 ERA in 24 games, his busiest season in Japan. He did strike out 42 batters in 39 2/3 innings.

After leaving Japan, Randel caught on with the Doosan Bears of South Korea. He debuted in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2005 with a 12-7, 3.25 record despite allowing 163 hits in 149 2/3 IP. In 2006, the Doosan hurler posted a 16-8, 2.95 record.

Randel’s salary was unlikely to be much higher than the league minimum for any of the time he spent in Japan. The Hawks made a few other international signings around the time they had Randel, notably Anderson Gomes.

So we have some anecdotal evidence showing that NPB teams are unlikely to partake in money games with blue-chip prospects, but will perhaps take on lower-risk, lower-reward guys. It would be great to see more international prospects developed in Japan, and there are some likely some prospects who profile well to the opportunites Japanese and Asian baseball can offer, but that won’t be the blue chip guys.

My posts (1, 2) on flaws with MLB draft (and by association, the NPB draft) elicited some interesting and occasionally impassioned responses.

After writing those original posts, I came across some interesting ideas put forth by writers whom I read regularly. Here are a couple of the more interesting ones:

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus speculates that we might see a more controlled draft in the future:

Said one exec, “Look, Bobby Abreu can’t find a job and then signs for $5 million. While 16-year-old are getting signed off sandlots in the Dominican for $3 and $4 million? That’s the kind of thing that’s going to get the union going,” he added, while predicting than during the next bargaining session, once the players figure out what they want, them giving into financially harnessing the signing system for both draftees and international players will be what they use for leverage.

There are also some indications that both sides might not be willing to wait for the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, as multiple sources have indicated that the reason for Bryce Harper’s early entry into college in order to be eligible for the 2010 draft revolves as much around his desire to sign within a system with no limits, rather than being subject a more controlled draft that could be in place sometime down the road.

Jim Allen of the Daily Yomiuri seems to favor more of a universally free system:

[Junichi] Tazawa was able to choose the club he thought was the best fit for him. A Japanese who aspires to take his game to the highest levels here has to negotiate with the team assigned to him through NPB’s draft. By going to America, he could choose from among different options.

Draft apologists say the system is necessary to maintain competitive balance, which it has. But its purpose from Day 1 was to cheat amateurs of the right to sell their own services to the highest bidder.

In most markets, this would be considered contemptible. It’s an indictment of the baseball business that depriving people of their rights is standard operating procedure in MLB and NPB and acceptable to the fans.

Commetor Crawdad of the Orioles Hangout, had my favorite response to my original post:

What might work better would be that teams pay into a draft bank. The bank receive money in a progressive format where teams that take in more money than others pay more to it. Each team is allotted 35 slots and those slots have a cost fixed to them that decrease.

For instance:
1 slot at 5MM
1 slot at 2.5MM
1 slot at 1MM
1 slot at 0.5MM
1 slot at 0.3MM
15 slots at 0.05MM
15 slots at 0.015MM

Players can sign with any team and if a player exceeds the slot in terms of MLB performance, MLB pays dividends out to the players until they reach arbitration.

So there is impetus for change and ideas being articulated. I hope we see a more free, fair system sometime in the future.