NPB Tracker

Of this season’s credible Japanese import candidates, I’ve written by far the least about Hiroshima Carp lefty Ken Takahashi. The main reason for that is I’ve seen a lot more of Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami, but I can still share a few observations on Takahashi.

Career thus far
Takahashi made his debut for the Carp in 1995 after being drafted in the 4th round out of Toyota of the Industrial Leagues. He spent the first few seasons of his career primarily as a reliever before moving into more of a starting role in 2001. His career stats aren’t particularly impressive, but note that he’s been a little more effective in the years he’s been able to start consistently. Note also that Takahashi that while Takahashi put up a better era in 2008, he regressed slightly in walks, strikeouts, and ba against. The big thing I noticed about Takahashi last year was that he was among the Central League era leaders until about June, and then faded down the stretch. I don’t have any data on this, but I don’t think it was high pitch counts that wore him out. Marty Brown limits his pitchers pitch counts, and Takahashi only threw about 100 pitches in his single complete game last year.

Mechanics & Stuff
Takahashi has a fairly straightforward delivery with a high kick; here’s a slow-motion YouTube video of it from October 2008. That video might not be quite enough for Driveline Mechanics to really dig into, though. Here’s a longer highlight reel from a 173 pitch, 10-hit shutout he threw back in 2002. Note that back then he used a two stage windup, where he would bring his leading leg up, then down but not quite back to the ground, then back up, then finally down again to complete his delivery. You can see a really good example of this around 2:18, where Takahashi strikes out Hideki Matsui*. The two stage windup was banned a couple of years ago, so Takahashi no longer uses it.

Takahashi throws a fastball, slider, sinker and curve, but I have also have a photo that clearly shows him throwing a circle change. Based on his walk numbers over the years I’d say his control isn’t phenomenal, but he is capable of keeping the ball down.

* He also gets Matsui at 1:17 of the same video.

What’s Next
Takahashi is looking for an MLB job this offseason, and apparently drawing some interest. The Carp have never qualified for the playoffs in his 14-year Hiroshima career, and seeing former teammate Hiroki Kuroda spray the champagne in celebration of the Dodgers’ division title was a motivating factor for him. According to an interview with Shukan Baseball from earlier in the year, seeing pitchers like Tsuyoshi Shimoyanagi and Masa Yamamoto continue to have success into their 40’s has given Takahashi the courage to attempt the leap to MLB.

Given that Takahashi will be 40 next April and will have adjust to a full-time relief role in the America, I think he’s in for a little bit of an uphill battle. Still, he had a nice string of successful starts at the beginning of last season, is left handed and seems to have a couple of decent breaking pitches, so if he’s in the right role and environment I could see him being a useful pitcher. 

The posting term for Koji Mitsui has come and gone without a single bidder for his services. I’m not too surprised by this; Mitsui is 35, coming off a bad year, and wanted a major league contract. Might as well sign Mark Hendrickson, who wouldn’t cost a posting fee. 

If Seibu wants to accomodate Mitsui at this point, they might choose to release Mitsui to allow him to pursue and MLB deal. He might have a better shot after some of the more proven guys sign. Nippon Ham was in a similiar situation with Yusaku Iriki a few years ago. The Fighters released Iriki after he failed to draw any bids during the posting process. Iriki went on to sign with the Mets, get busted for PED usage in the minor leagues, and eventually make his way back to Japan for one season before retiring.

Something for teams interested Koji Mitsui to keep in mind — the lefty is saying that he’s willing to skip his foray to America if all he gets is a minor league deal.  Said Mitsui: “There’s some question as whether it’ll be a major league contract or not. Will I not sign (if it’s a minor league contract)? That is a possibility.”

The same article says that Mitsui dropped 7kg (15 lbs.) by fasting and going on a “banana diet”. Hmm…

Nope, not Kenshin Kawakami, Koji Uehara or Takashi Saito. Sponichi is reporting that the Cardinals signed for Kintetsu Buffaloe Katsuhiko Maekawa to a minor league deal. You might remember that Maekawa lost his job in Japan over a drunk driving hit and run driving incident (and not pitching very well), played in the Domican Winter League, signed a deal with the Nationals, and then finally couldn’t get a US work visa. He never actually played in the Nats’ system, hopefully he’ll get a shot with the Cards.

Maekawa is in the Venezuelan Winter League this year where he’s put up pretty unimpressive numbers: 0-2, 6.39 era in 4 appearances.

The race for Kenshin Kawakami is heating up — Sponichi is reporting that the Twins and Giants are getting into the chase. The market for Kawakami has predictably built up with the signings of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, which frees up the Braves and Giants to get involved.

Dan Evans lists three reasons for Kawakami’s popularity:

1. They’re open to talking to all 30 teams, without concern for the team’s home park or how strong they are.
2. The acquiring team doesn’t have to worry about losing a draft pick for signing Kawakami.
3. Kawakami hasn’t had any major breakdowns over the last few years.

I think point #2 needs to be changed — MLB teams pay compensation to each other for acquiring free agents; so do NPB teams. Some kind of rights transfer compensation seems appropriate for players moving from NPB to MLB as well.

Kenshin Kawakami’s agent, Dan Evans has been quoted in Hochi Sports as saying that he has official offers from “more than one team”.

Baltimore, Boston, Anaheim and Atlanta have all be in on Kawakami so far. I like Atlanta as the best fit for him. Upate: forgot to mention the Giants and Brewers have also been reported as interested. I still think the Braves make the most sense.

The Winter Meetings came and went without too many significant moves — a sign that MLB management is just as stuck by the bad economy as everyone else is.

On that sobering note, there are some rumblings on Koji Uehara and Ryoji Aikawa to share:

 

• Sanspo is reporting that Texas is working on 3-year, $10m+ proposal for Uehara. Team president Nolan Ryan is quoted as trusting Jim Colborn’s evaluation of Uehara, but they need a little more time to decide on a direction. The problem is, Texas prefers Uehara has a reliever, and he’s looking for a rotation job. The Mets met with Uehara’s agent in Las Vegas, and are planning to meet with him again. NY seems to prefer him in a bullpen role as well. 
• Sponichi repors that Ryoji Aikawa is getting a look from the Orioles, who seem intent on acquiring a Japanese player this offseason. The article speculates that the O’s might want him to help attract Uehara or Kenshin Kawakami — which I find spurious as you’d rather have those guys throwing to someone who knows the league. Nikkan Sports contradicts the Sponichi report, saying that he’s inching closer to joining Yakult.

A couple of notes to pass along regarding Japanese player activity at this week’s MLB winter meetings:

• Sponichi is reporting that the Astros are interested in So Taguchi. Agent Alan Nero has talked to five teams so far and is continuing to shop Taguchi around.
• Tadahito Iguchi will be in the States during the meetings, and hopes to decide on a 2009 team by the 20th. Iguchi has offers on both sides of the Pacific, and has reportedly already decided against returning the Phillies.
• Ken Takahashi’s agent isn’t expecting to see any movement for his client until the meetings start. Takahashi has been working out with a Major League ball.
• The Orioles are reportedly preparing to offer both Kenshin Kawakami and Koji Uehara 2-year/$10m deals. This seems surprisingly low to me. Even in this bad economy, the Giants still found $8m for Jeremy Affeldt. 
• Another report has an international scout from an AL East team putting the market for Uehara at 2 years, $5m. I think he would be a tremendous bargain at that price.
• I had read that Rakuten manager Katsuya Nomura would be in attendance at the winter meetings, but I think the Golden Eagles are done shopping this offseason. SoftBank, HIroshima, Lotte and possibly Hanshin still have foreign player slots open and could be active at the meetings.
• And this last one isn’t really winter meetings related, but I’ll through it out anyway. Remember Akinori Otsuka? He spent the year training and rehabbing after his injury in 2007. He wrote of his good relationship with new Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu in his blog, so I’ll speculate that if he’s healthy enough to pitch in 2009, Seattle might be the place. Otsuka seems to maintain a residence in San Diego, and he would be a Padres-type signing.

Here’s some unexpected news out of Saitama: Seibu is going to post relief pitcher Koji Mitsui. The article isn’t specific about when they’re going to do it, but I’m assuming it will be during this offseason. There will be a press conference at the team’s HQ in Tokorozawa tomorrow. This comes as a surprise to me as I didn’t expect to see any one posted this year.

Mitsui is a 35 year-old lefty and coming off a bad year, though he put up solid numbers in ’06 and ’07. I don’t really know much about him but he certainly seems more likely to be a bullpen depth guy than a core guy. Still, he’d be a low-risk acquisition for an MLB team as he’ll probably only command a very small posting fee.

Things have been eerily quiet for Kenshin Kawakami and Koji Uehara, but are starting to pick up.

• Yahoo Japan has a Sponichi report saying that the Angels have already been in contact with Kawakami’s agent, Dan Evans. The Angels are said to be put off by Jon Garland’s salary demands and looking to replace him in the back of their rotation. Kawakami will probably cost substantially less than Garland, unless Garland overplays his hand like Kyle Lohse did last year. 
• Baltimore is also planning to negotiate with both Kawakami and Uehara at the winter meetings. The O’s are said to be interested in Ken Takahashi as well.
• Uehara hasn’t attracted any offers yet, but his agent has been in touch with the Tigers and the Giants.