NPB Tracker

Update: $6m figure was later contradicted. Please see this post.

Sanspo is reporting that Red Sox VP for international scouting Craig Shipley spent 1 hour 50 minutes negotiating with Junichi Tawaza, resulting in a $6M contract offer. No word on whether it’s a major league deal or not.

The Yomiuri has a brief mention of an offer from the Mariners, including appearance and innings-based incentives. If that’s true, I hope those incentives are a few years down the road as this is a 22 year-old kid who’s already been overworked by his industrial league team. The Indians and Tigers meetings with Tazawa made the Japanese news, but so far I haven’t seen any reports of contract offers from either team.

Tazawa’s Eneos career ended with a loss to JR Tokai in the final tournament of the amateur season. After pitching shutouts in the first two rounds of the tourney, Tazawa entered the semi-final game in the 7th inning with runners on first and second and the game tied 2-2. Tazawa gave up a single that scored what proved to be the winning run. The victorious JR Tokai went on to lose to Toyota in the final. (Here’s the Kyodo English-language writeup)

In the spirit of keepin’ it real, here’s a great article from Jim Allen, and a great response from Aaron Shinsano of East Windup Chronicle.

NPB’s free agency filing period ended on the 19th (JST) with seven players exercising their rights to become free agents. Unlike MLB, in NPB it’s not a given that players eligible for free agency will actually file. It’s actually the exception rather than the rule. It’s worth exploring why that is, but that’s a post for another day. For now, let’s take a look at the seven guys who filed and where they’ll wind up.

Koji Uehara (P, Yomiuri Giants): Written plenty on Uehara already. I see him going to the Cardinals as a swingman.

Kenshin Kawakami (P, Chunichi Dragons): Written about him too. I think he’ll sign with the Braves and fill a mid-rotation spot. 

Ken Takahashi (P, HIroshima Carp): Veteran lefty wants to try MLB. The Mets seem like a logical fit.

Ryoji Aikawa (C,  Yokohama BayStars): Wants to play in the majors, and has hired Alan Nero as his agent. Has already worked out for a couple of MLB teams. He’ll probably only command a minor league deal, so he’ll probably get a short with someone looking for organizational depth at catcher. Maybe Detroit. 

Daisuki Miura (P, Yokohama BayStars): Decided to test the market. Will discuss a move to the majors if it comes up. Hanshin is making a play for him, and I think that’s where he’ll wind up.

Toshihiro Noguchi (C, Hanshin Tigers): Veteran backup catcher is exploring his options. Hanshin seems resigned to him leaving. I think he’ll wind up with Yokohama to replace Aikawa.

Norihiro Nakamura (3B, Chunichi Dragons): Previously said that he wanted to finish his career with Chunichi, changed his mind when they only offered him a one-year deal and decided to move him off third. Rakuten and Nippon Ham are both interested in his services, but I’ll give Rakuten the edge in signing him.

These players are free to begin negotiating with teams from the 20th.

When I see Kenshin Kawakami mentioned in an American blog or media report, it’s usually this context:

The Sox also have interest in Kenshin Kawakami, a 33-year-old righty for the Chunichi Dragons who went 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA last season. Kawakami is a Hiroki Kuroda-type pitcher with a cut fastball and good curveball who could man the No. 4 or 5 spot in the Sox rotation.

I normally interpret the comparison to Hiroki Kuroda as “not as good as Daisuke Matsuzaka, but better than Kei Igawa“. In addition to that, they’re both right-handed, about the same age, and have long track records of success in Japan’s Central League.

There are a couple of differences:

1. Kuroda is a fastball/slider/splitter pitcher, while Kawakami is mostly a fastball/cutter/curveball guy. Kuroda can reach the mid-90’s on his heater, while Kawakami sits in the low-90’s and relies a little more on movement and off-speed stuff.

2. Kawakami has spent his career with a usually competitive Chunichi Dragons team, while Kuroda spent his career with the perennial also-ran Hiroshima Carp. Kawakami has had a consistently outstanding infield defense behind him for his NPB career, while I don’t think the same can be said of the Carp defense. Kawakami has also pitched in more big games.

3. Kuroda pitched his home games in Japan at the tiny Hiroshima Municipal Stadium, while Kawakami enjoyed the much larger dimensions of the Nagoya Dome.

With the above three points noted, I’d say that Kawakami is a slightly worse MLB prospect than Kuroda was last year, but let’s test that assumption with some performance data. This will be a simplistic analysis, but hopefully it will provide a better insight into Kawakami as a prospect.

Using stats from the excellent Data League site (Japanese, works best in Internet Explorer), I put together some simple comparisons to try to isolate the differences between the two pitchers. I looked at the period between 1998-2007, tossing out Kuroda’s 1997 because Kawakami hadn’t started his career yet and 2008 because the two pitchers were in different leagues.

ERA Trends

Kuroda’s DIPSera was pretty consistent his last few years in Japan, but his actual ERA varied widely, which is probably the result of an inconsistent defense. Kawakami, on the other hand, has put up consistent DIPSera and ERA numbers.

K/BB Trending

This one surprised me. Kawakami matched Kuroda on strikeout rate consistently in Japan, and bested him in ’06 and ’07. Both pitchers have done a good job improving on their control as they gained experience.

If anything, this and the previous chart point out that Kuroda was coming off a relatively poor season by his standards in ’07. Kawakami, on the other hand will be coming off a much better 2008 season statistically, though he did miss time due to minor injuries and the Olympics.

It’s easy to favor Kuroda as a pitcher because of his stuff (I do), but Kawakami has been a consistent performer over the last eight years. Should Kawakami pursue a career in MLB (and I think he will), his performance will obviously depend on where he winds up. But if he can continue to keep the ball down in the zone and miss bats with his breaking stuff, I see no reason why he can’t be an effective mid-rotation starter.

Japanese news from the usual sources for today.

Japanese Articles:

• The Indians have reportedly gotten into the Junichi Tazawa race despite Mark Shapiro. Meanwhile, Tazawa’s final tournament as an amateur begins on the 17th. He’s not hiring an agent and plans to negotiate during the tournament, and will be eligible to sign after it ends on the 24th. 
• Kenshin Kawakami filed for free agency, after pausing for a bit. “I want to choose the team that needs me the most and the team that I feel like I really want to play for”. 
• Orix is working on a contract with Baltimore AAA righty Jon Leicester, and has added Richard Hidalgo to their list of acquisition targets. Hidalgo’s name emerging is interesting — he hasn’t played in the bigs since 2005 and is currently in the Venezuelan Winter League. 
• Former “Face of the BayStars” Takuro Ishii has agreed to a contract with the Hiroshma Carp. Hiroshima also signed 4th-round draft pick Son-Hyon Shin to an entry-level contract with a ï¿¥20,000,000 ($200K) signing bonus.
• Hiram Bocachica is returning to Seibu, saying that game 7 of the Japan Series was the best day in his baseball career. 
• Softbank is going after an MLB free agent this off-season. No word on who they might be targeting, but they have 10 guys on their list. Softbank overpaid for Tony Bautista a few years ago; I hope they do better this time.

The next guy on the free agent market to watch is Hiroshima Carp veteran lefty Ken Takahashi. Takahashi had been weighing a move to the majors pretty much all season, and has now decided to go for it and file for free agency. Here’s a quote from JapanBall:

”It has been a wish of mine to play in America after qualifying for free agency,” said Takahashi, who went 8-5 with Hiroshima this season.

”American baseball is a different world. I’d like to start off by getting one win over there. I’ll need energy to challenge at my age but it is just a case of believing in myself,” the 39-year-old 
said. ”There aren’t that many left-handers over there either and that would be a plus for me.”

Takahashi enjoyed a resurgent season for the surprisingly competitive Carp, going 8-5 with a 3.50 ERA in 115 2/3 innings. The Carp will certainly miss his presence in the rotation, but team ownership has already promised him a home after he comes back.

Takahashi will be 40 next April, so there will be inevitable comparisons to Masumi Kuwata, who joined the Pirates at age 38 after a long career in Japan. The big difference is that Takahashi is coming off a good season, while Kuwata had been washed up for a couple of years when he moved over. I expect Takahashi to get a major league contract.

The Mets have already been mentioned as a potential suitor, which isn’t a surprise given that they need pitching and have signed a number of Japanese players over the years. Surprisingly they like him as a starter. Nikkan Sports reports that the Cubs, Padres, and Giants are interested, and quotes a Cubs scout as saying Takahashi could be used out of the bullpen and as an emergency starter. This makes a lot more sense to me given Takahashi’s age and recent workload.

The 180 is complete, at least for one year: Saburo has signed a 1-year, ï¿¥100M ($1M) contract to remain with the Chiba Lotte Marines. The birth of his third child next March and wanting to make up for last year’s 4th place finish were cited as the main factors in his decision.  “The dream (of winning) with Lotte takes precendence over the dream (of playing) overseas,” said Saburo, adding, “after having a good season I’ll think it over again”. 

Kenshin Kawakami is poised to make a move from Chunichi, but still undecided on whether to jump over to MLB or find a new employer in Japan. Hanshin is gearing up to make the first move by offering Kawakami a 4-year, 1.8B yen ($18M) deal. Said team president Shoji Numazawa: “we don’t intend to play a money game. We’re just attacking to the extent that is possible to acquire players, even if they are looking to the majors.” The Giants made a similar attempt to lure Kosuke Fukudome last year, but their offer was only about half what he wound up getting from the Cubs.

Unfortunately I don’t really see $4.5M/year getting it done for Kawakami; maybe if they bumped it up to $7M/year he’d have something to think about. So far the Braves and Red Sox have been most frequently linked to interest in Kawakami.

The NPB free agency filing period began yesterday, giving players eligible players 10 days to excercise free agency or stay put. In a shock to no one, Koji Uehara didn’t waste any time in informing the Yomiuri Giants of his intent to cross the Pacific. Uehara will become the second Giants star to move to MLB, after Hideki Matsui. Giants representative thanked Uehara for his 10 years of hard work for the team.

Uehara also announced that he has hired SFX to represent him in upcoming negotiations.

Speculation of Uehara’s destination has already begun. The Mets and Angels are reportedly interested in Uehara for a relief role, while the Orioles like him as a starter. Sponichi quotes Baltimore exec as saying, “There are a lot of good experienced professional players in Japan. Uehara? He’s one of them”. Sponichi also speculates that the Brewers might be a good fit given the potential departure of CC Sabathia.

My wild guess of a prediction for Uehara is the Cardinals. Dave Duncan has a way of getting the best of his staff, and the Cards could use him in a swingman role. What kind of contract he commands will really depend on whether teams view him as a starter or a reliever.

Sponichi and Nikkan Sports are both reporting that Saburo has changed his mind and will remain with the Chiba Lotte Marines for at least another year. Sponichi quotes Saburo as saying “the direction is decided but it’s not 100%. It might change. I’ll decide within 2 or 3 days.”  Sponichi reports that Saburo has a two year, ï¿¥200M ($2M) offer in hand from the Marines and the two papers are in agreement that this could be wrapped up by the 11th. According to Nikkan Sports, Saburo wants to avenge his team’s 4th place finish, but I still wonder why we’re seeing this reversal. I’m sure we’ll learn more in the next few days.

The Japan Series has just ended, but the off-season is already in full swing. Here are some highlights for today.

Japanese Articles:

• Kenshin Kawakami is having a hard time making up his mind whether he wants to move to MLB or another team in Japan. My money would be on MLB, but it’s worth noting that after becoming a free agent, Hiroki Kuroda signed a 4-year deal with an opt-out clause that allowed him to move to MLB, which he later exercised. 
• Hiroshima Carp owner Hajime Matsuda has pitcher Ken Takahashi that there will be a place for him with the Carp after he retires. The 39 year-old Takahashi is eligible for free agency and eyeing a move to the majors. He’s coming off a solid year and could be a bullpen lefty for someone.
• Yakult is looking to bring in Twins AAA reliever Ricky Barrett. Barrett has never made it to the show and is a minor league free agent.
• More Yakult news: Brazilian instruction draft pick Rafael Fernandez commented on his selection: “I was encouraged to ‘stay in Japan and do my best’. I want to perform well for my friends”. 
• Mark Kelly earned an invite to Orix’s autumn training camp.
• Chiba Lotte worked out Marlins AAA infielder Chase Lambin for a spot on next year’s team, and is also bringing in Gary Burnham of Taiwan’s La New Bears for a try out.
• No rest for the weary: Yu Darvish has already begun training for next year.

English Articles:

• News from Taiwan: Yokohama is working out China Trust Whales lefty Yu-Chieh Shen. La New also played an exhibition series against the Yomiuri Giants farm team. Game 2 featured the Giants’ shockingly young Taiwanese farmhands.
• Tommy Lasorda is being awarded the Order of the Rising Sun for his contributions to Japanese baseball.