NPB Tracker

By now this is old news, but this is one of those posts that I started drafting, got interrupted, and haven’t had the time to get back to until now. Better late than never.

So, to get caught up, “the Tazawa penalty” is a new rule banning Japanese players who have opted out of the NPB draft to sign internationally from joining an NPB team for up to three years after leaving their international organization. The idea is make top Japanese amateurs think twice about bypassing NPB for MLB by eliminating the assumption that they have an easy path back.

Though I haven’t found anything concrete on this, I’m guessing the rule will be in effect from Tazawa forward, so Robert Boothe shouldn’t have anything to worry about if he wants to pitch in Japan in the future.

Tazawa has commented on the situation: “Personally I only thought about going to America. I wasn’t thinking about the next person, so this is something I have to apologize for”.

It feels like this is kind of a sour grapes move by the NPB establishment and they’ll eventually get over it. There is some historic precedence to suggest that they will: the cases of Hideki Irabu, Kazuhito Tadano, Hideo Nomo and Mac Suzuki.

Irabu is perhaps the most informative example. Prior to being a bust with the Yankees, Irabu was under contract with the San Diego Padres, whom he refused to play for. At the time, the NPB establishment felt that they had been embarrassed by Irabu’s antics and said that he wouldn’t be allowed back in, but Hanshin signed him for the 2003 season. He won the fans over with a strong start.

Kazuhito Tadano was a top college pitcher who went undrafted because of his appearance in an adult film. The story was that NPB teams were worried about their images, but a couple of years and MLB appearances later, the Nippon Ham Fighters had gotten over it and selected Tadano in the second round of the NPB draft.

There was severe backlash against Hideo Nomo after he pulled his retirement stunt to make it to MLB, but it didn’t take too long for him to turn that around and he’s now widely recognized as one of most significant figures in Japanese baseball over the last 20 or so years, along wth Ichiro. I’m not aware of similar backlash against Mac Suzuki, but when he decided he was ready to move to NPB at least two teams (Yakult and Orix) were interested in drafting him, and Orix did draft and sign him.

So my gut feeling, and my hope, is that this new rule basically amounts to an idle threat. Instead of threatening Japanese nationals like this, I’m hoping to see a little more effort to make signing and playing in NPB more appealing, and at the same time, investing a more in developing young talent, particularly young international talent.

Alright, looks like I’ll have time to squeeze in a blog entry this morning. This is about the third time that I’ve thought my hiatus would come to an end, only to have something pull my attention away. This time I’m determined to make it stick.

Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be looking at offseason plans for players and teams, as well as working on some essay-type stuff. There’s also the playoffs and Japan Series, so there’s plenty to write about.

Let’s start with The Chiba Lotte Marines, who today announed that Bobby Valentine’s contract has been renewed, and have a number of guys who qualify for free agency.

Naoyuki Shimizu, SP: Shimizu was set to be a hot commodity among NPB teams this winter, drawing rumored interested from Hanshin, Rakuten, Yakult, Yokohama and the Giants, but has recently revealed that he intends to pass on free agency this year with an eye toward the majors later on.

Shingo Ono, SP: After a little indecision, Ono appears to be leaning towards free agency. “I feel like would like to remain with Lotte, but they’re developing good young pitchers and I have to think about moving. I have confidence that I can play for another team.” Yokohama is rumored to be interested in his services.

Tasuku Hashimoto, C: Hashimoto feels like he can start, but is stuck behind all-star Tomoya Satozaki, so I think he’ll be likely to try his fortunes somewhere else. A number of teams are rumored to be interested after his strong 2008 season (.311, 11hr off the bench), but Hanshin is expected to make the biggest play to sign him. Current Tigers catcher Akihiro Yano won’t last forever, and there’s no internal heir apparent.

Saburo, OF: Saburo’s two-year contract is coming to an end, and he’s considering his options, which include moving to MLB. Saburo is quoted as saying, “I’ve compared myself to the major league rightfielders that I see on TV, and if I’m going to go now is my only chance.” Saburo is coming off a solid offensive season (.289/.359/.416) and has won Gold Gloves in 2005 and 2007, but he still profiles as a 4th outfielder on most teams.

Julio Zuleta, DH/1B: Zuleta has been plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness in his two years with the Marines. Expect him to be replaced this off-season.

I’ll add these guys to my free agent list tonight. 

Coming up next: a look at some other free agents and the playoffs thus far.

By now it’s common knowledge among baseball fans that Junichi Tazawa has elected to forego a career in Nippon Pro Baseball and jump right in to an MLB organization. The Red Sox, Pirates, Braves, Mariners and Cubs have been publicly linked with Tazawa, with Boston considered the front runner to land him. Based on the hype he’s getting I’d expect him to get a contract in the first round draft pick range.

Tazawa’s announcement has predictably send a shock wave through Japanese baseball. Meetings are underway — so far the 12 NPB have met amongst themselves and with three amateur baseball bodies; and NPB commissioner Ryozo Kato is meeting with Bud Selig on September 16 in New York (correction 9/16: representatives from the two commissioners offices are meeting today, a meeting between the actual commissioners is on the cards for later). My impression is that the Japanese baseball institution is more intent on preventing this development from setting a precedent than it is blocking this individual player’s move to the US.

Much of the discussion seems to be around the uneven playing field between NPB and MLB teams in pursuit of Tazawa. Tazawa is subject to the NPB draft, while he’s eligible to sign as a free agent with MLB teams. This puts NPB at a considerable disadvantage: NPB teams can only offer draft picks a maximum bonus of about $1M, while MLB teams aren’t bound to a limit; NPB scouts are limited in when they can talk to amateur players while MLB scouts don’t have to comply to such limits. Like MLB, NPB has a draft system to try and fairly distribute talent among the teams. It would be a shame to see that effort undermined, and it seems worthwhile to revisit the rules for teams scouting players subject to the NPB draft.

It’s important to note that the news here is not necessarily the MLB interest, but that Tazawa has chosen to forgo the NPB draft. NPB and MLB have had an unwritten agreement in place since 1962 that prohibits MLB teams from signing Japanese NPB draft candidates, but that hasn’t stopped MLB teams from trying to sign top Japanese amateurs in the past. Tazawa is the first to accept the overtures. So while MLB teams have mostly honored the letter of the gentleman’s agreement, they haven’t entirely honored the spirit of it. It’s only now that a top talent has been lured away that the NPB institution is getting upset.

Another thing to consider is that each year MLB teams sign much of the top young amateur players out of Taiwan and Korea, and no one bats an eye. Why is that? MLB’s interest in the players from these countries is a validation of the talent that’s there, but I think it impedes the development of local leagues and deprives fans of seeing some of their countries’ top players compete in international competition. Japan has managed to retain its top talent and making them stars at home, which is one of the reasons NPB is a strong league.

Tim Dierkes included my comments that a Japanese team could go after a guy like Aaron Crow or Pedro Alvarez in his most recent post on the Tazawa situation. At this point it would be an obvious retaliation move but under the right circumstances it would make sense for both sides. The player would get a viable alternative to MLB — playing in Japan in front of tens of thousands of fans every night, for millions of dollars. The team would get a talented player that they could eventually send back to MLB via the posting system (Ramon Ramirez is a non-Japanese player who was developed and posted by the Hiroshima Carp).

Obviously there is a lot left to happen before the situation is resolved, but Tazawa has already gotten his name in the history books just by announcing his decision. This development might bring about change to bring NPB and MLB together, or it might drive them apart. I’m hoping for the former.

Well, Eneos has won the Industrial League’s Tokyo Intercity Championship, mostly behind the standout pitching of ace Junichi Tazawa. Tazawa dominated his competition and was presented with the Hashido Award as the tournament’s top player. According to reports, he only hit about 91 mph on the gun in the final game, which is almost certainly attributable to his high workload during the tournament.

With the tournament over, Tazawa is now free to think about his future. He’s scheduled a press conference for September 11 where he’s expected to announce his intent to sign with an MLB team. Sponichi quoted Tazawa as saying “It (the tournament) has just ended… I’ll think it over from now” and “I want to test my strength overseas”.

Needless to say, there’s been an explosion of coverage on this in the Japanese press. Several MLB teams have reportedly sent scouts to watch Tazawa, while the Braves have sent GM Frank Wren and the Tigers have sent Dick Egan, special assistant to GM Dave Dombrowski. The consensus favorite to land Tazawa still seems to be the Red Sox, but we’ll see what happens.

Don’t touch that dial…

First bullet points collection in a couple of days… favoring English articles for this round.

English Articles:

• Congratulations to 36 year-old 3rd baseman Scott McClain, who slugged his first MLB home run for the Giants last week. McClain played four seasons with Seibu in the early 00’s and had a strong year in ’01.
• The Yankees sent exec Gene Michael on scouting trip to Japan. The usual suspects are named in the article: Koji Uehara, Kenshin Kawakami and Hitoki Iwase. I suspect Michael might have a look at Junichi Tazawa as well.
• Deanna has more great photos from an NPB minor league game on her blog, including this one of submariner Yuta Shimoshikiryo.
• Bobby Valentine was in the news again last week: first over speculation on his future with the Marines, then from his interest in managing Japan’s 2009 WBC team.
• 18 year-old rookie Yoshinori took home his first pro victory in Yakult’s Sept 06 7-4 win over Yomiuri.

Japanese Articles:

• Junichi Tazawa continues to impress both Japanese and American scouts, this time with 2 2/3 innings of perfect relief in Eneos’s 1-0 win over JFE in the Industrial League Tokyo Intercity Baseball Tournament. Scouts from the Yokohama BayStars, Yankees, and Pirates as well as Braves GM Frank Wren were in attendance. When asked about Tazawa, Yankees scout Kida commented, “please ask Cashman”.
• Orix has gone on a tear and gotten themselves all the way into 2nd place in the Pacific League. This has pleased team owner Miyauchi, who commented: “the team is clicking” (note: that’s a very loose translation).
• However, assuming Orix makes the playoffs they’ll have to compete without retiring slugger Kazuhiro Kiyohara, who intends to stop playing after his October 1 retirement ceremony. I’ve never been a Kiyohara fan, but I’d like to see him go out on a high note.
• Chunichi super-sub Tomas De La Rosa is making a play to stick with the team for next season. He’s considered a key man in the team’s run up to a playoff spot.

Okay Red Sox, Braves, and Orix Buffaloes fans — I did a little more digging on Junichi Tazawa and found some pretty good stuff.

• Deanna attended Tazawa’s most recent game with Simon and treats us to this game report. If you haven’t checked out Deanna’s and Simon’s blogs, I highly recommend doing so.
• This YouTube video shows an inning’s worth of work in which Tazawa shows off a 90-93 mph fastball, a 12-6 curve, and a shuuto. Note that his fastball has some movement and he can run it in on righthanded batters. I have no idea about the quality of competition in this game.
• This much worse amateur video is from a pro-am game versus the Chunichi Dragons. He hits 150 km/h (93mph) on the gun and you can get a sense of the movement on his stuff, but other than that you can’t tell much about how he did. The video is more watchable from about 04:00 in.
• Here’s a great frame-by-frame look at Tazama’s windup.
• This Japanese scouting report includes Tazawa’s stats for this season. I’m not going to translate the whole thing but I’ll give you the bottom line: 54 IP, 46 hits, 56 K, 4 BB, 6 ER, 1.00 ERA. Fastest recorded pitch speed is 153 km/h (95.625 mph) according to this.

I’m actually rooting for Tazawa to stay in Japan. I’m an NPB fan and I’d like to the league retain it’s best talent at least for some period of time. But at the same time I think this attention is good. The interest of teams like the Red Sox validates the level of talent in Japan. Also if NPB teams have to compete with MLB teams a little more directly to acquire top amateur talent, it may make them adapt their approaches a bit more quickly, and I think that would be a good thing.

Update, Sept 3: For more on Tazawa the pitcher, please see this post.

Update: Simon pointed out that minor detail that I glossed over — that the signing hasn’t happened yet, just that Theo Epstein ok’ed it. I guess my inner hot stove got the better of me. The subject matter of the post is still valid, and I’ve made appropriate tense corrections to reflect the actual situation.

Sponichi is reporting that the Boston Red Sox have signed are looking to sign amateur pitcher Junichi Tazawa from Eneos Oil of the Industrial Leagues. Tazawa is a 22 year-old righthander with a fastball that reportedly reaches 97 mph, and is widely considered a top amateur going into this year’s NPB draft. All 12 NPB teams, as well as the Braves and Mets had been watching Tazawa in addition to Boston.

Theo Epstein comments in the article on scouting Japanese amateurs (warning: translation of a translation):

“We know how good Japanese pitchers are through Daisuke (Matsuzaka) and Oki (Hideki Okajima). The time has come when all 30 MLB teams have data on Japanese pitchers, but we’re proactive about data on young players.”

At this point I would like to note that terms of the signing were not included in the article, nor have I seen an official announcement. So hopefully there will be more details to come. It’s possible that The signing isn’t final yet.

This potential signing is likely to cause a stir in NPB. According to the article, there are no clear rules prohibiting MLB teams from signing Japanese amateurs prior to being drafting in NPB, but this is would be the first time that a consensus first round talent could potentially join an MLB team before being drafted. The NPB brass has never been nuts about losing veteran talent to MLB, so we’ll see how they would react to losing a coveted amateur.

This isn’t wouldn’t be Boston’s first amateur signing out of Japan. The signed relief pitching prospect Ryo Kumagai out of college a few years ago, and attempted to sign catcher Hayato Doue from the independant Shikoku Island League earlier this year. Kumagai wound up back in Japan pitching in the amateur industrial leagues pretty quickly, while I believe Doue failed to secure a visa and never made it over.

I’ve written a lot about the top three free agents coming out of NPB after this season, but there are several other lesser names that have been in the news as well. A thread on JapaneseBaseball.com listing a few has made the rounds to EastWindupChronicle and MLB Trade Rumors, and I’ve done some research and found a couple of other guys that have qualified since that list was published. Some of these players qualify under new rules that shorten the amount of service time required to attain free agency.

Fortunately the Japanese media doesn’t shy away from jumping the gun and speculating so let the hot-stove fun begin.

Tomohiro Nioka (INF, Yomiuri Giants): I’m not sure if Nioka will rack up the service time he needs to move internationally by the end of the season. He’s gotten some negative publicity over his extra-marital flirtation with a TV newscaster this season, so the Giants may be ready to move on from him.

Masahiro Araki (2B, Chunichi Dragons): Araki has hinted at trying the free agent market, but I would be surprised if he signed elsewhere.

Hirokazu Ibata (SS, Chunichi Dragons): Nikkei Sports reports that Ibata will remain with Chunichi and “has no interest in filing for free agency.”

Ryoji Aikawa (C, Yokohama BayStars): I don’t see him leaving Yokohama. Haven’t had much luck in finding media reports on his free agency.

Tatsuhiko Kinjoh (CF, Yokohama BayStars): According to Sponichi, Kinjoh is not planning on declaring free agency and will stay with the BayStars, at least for another year.

Naoyuki Ohmura (CF, Softbank Hawks): Ohmura has stated publicly that he wants to try his hand at MLB. “I want to go,” says Ohmura, “life is short and you only get one chance at it.” Ohmura is a contact hitter with zero power. He can probably start for an NPB team that gets power from other positions, or be possibly be a 4th outfielder type in MLB. Think So Taguchi.

Ryota Igarashi (RP, Yakult Swallows): The hard-throwing reliever will carefully think over his options in the off-season. He’s eligible for domestic free agency, and he’s in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.

Akihiro Higashide (2B, Hiroshima Carp): Higashide made some comments that you don’t typically hear from Japanese players: “I’ve worked hard to reach free agency. This is the result of year after year of fighting to be my best. I have to put good results in this kind of year.” True to his words, Higashide is in the midst of a break-out season, third in the Central League with a .334 BA (career BA: .255). It looks like he’s qualified for domestic free agency; there is speculation that he could draw interest from Hanshin, Yomiuri, and Chunichi. I would hate to see Hiroshima lose yet another star.

Norihiro Nakamura (3B, Chunichi Dragons): “Not interested in other teams“ were his exact words. Has had two MLB flirtations and drama at Kintetsu/Orix before finally settling into a groove with Chunichi. I can’t see him anywhere else.

Masafumi Hirai (RP, Chunichi Dragons): Qualified for free agency last year, but elected to sign a one year contract with Chunichi. Having a bad season. Kind of an MLB sleeper type.

Atsunori Inaba (OF, Nippon Ham Fighters): Inaba’s contract is up, but he’s unlikely to move.

Daisuke Miura (SP, Yokohama BayStars): Miura is finishing up a six-year contract with Yokohama. Hanshin is already gearing up to make a play for him.

Kim Dong-Ju (3B, Doosan (Korea)): Orix is looking at Kim as their third baseman for next year. EastWindup Chronicle has his numbers and some analysis.

Most of these guys will probably stay put — such is free agency in NPB. But with a the new free agency rules and an uptick in trades, there is certainly more potential for movement than there has been in the past.

If you’ve been reading this blog, you probably know that the top three Japanese free agents this year are pitchers Hitoki Iwase, Kenshin Kawakami, and Koji Uehara. I’ve profiled all three, now it’s time to rank ’em as MLB prospects.

Safest Bet:

1. Iwase: Standout NPB relievers have generally made successful transitions to MLB, and few have been as good in NPB as Iwase. I don’t think the struggles of Kazuo Fukumori and Yasuhiko Yabuta will scare teams away as Iwase has put up significantly better numbers than those guys in NPB.
2. Kawakami: Has been consistently good over the last 5-6 seasons, and having another good year. I think he will be slightly better than Hiroki Kuroda. Look out for a post comparing Kawakami and Kuroda head-to-head some time in the near future.
3. Uehara: Pitched in relief last year; struggled in return to rotation this year, got injured, then came back to the bullpen. He’ll probably only sign with a team that will give him a chance to start.

Highest Upside:

1. Uehara: I can see him having a great year as a starter if he stays healthy and winds up on the right team (big park, good outfield defense, preferably National League). His control sets him apart here.
2. Kawakami: I put him a shade behind Uehara because I think Uehara’s superior control could play better in MLB. I still expect him to be a solid MLB pitcher.
3. Iwase: Best case: Iwase is a solid late-inning reliever. I think he’s the most likely of the three to realize his MLB potential, but as a reliever his value isn’t as high as a starter.

Why do this now, in the middle of the season? Mostly because people outside Japan will get to see all three of these guys pitch in the Olympics this month. It also gives us a chance to watch them over the last two months of the season and see if things change.

Note that it’s not a given that all three of these guys will opt to move over to MLB.

The consensus top three NPB free agents this upcoming off season are Koji Uehara, Kenshin Kawakami, and Hitoki Iwase. I’ve already written about Uehara and Kawakami, so today I’ll cover Chunichi Dragons closer Iwase.

Career Thus Far
Hitoki Iwawe is probably the most accomplished relief pitcher currently active in Japan. In his 10 professional seasons with the Dragons, he has a 2.02 ERA with 187 saves and 47-28 record. His peripherals are good as well: in 614 2/3 innings, he’s struck out 565 while walking 140 and allowing only 26 home runs.

Chunichi moved Iwase into the closer role in 2004 with the departure of Akinori Otsuka, and he immediately flourished. In 2005 he set a new NPB save record with 45, starting a run of three consecutive 40+ save seasons. That streak is unlikely to continue this year, as even though he has 27 saves so far, he’ll miss time to play in the Olympics. Overall he’s been a little more hittable this year, but still has a 2.87 ERA and 31/8 K/BB. JapaneseBaseball.com has Iwase’s stats through 2007 available in English, and you can find his stats to date in Japanese here.

2007 Japan Series
The defining moment in Iwase’s career was the deciding fifth game of the 2007 Japan Series. Dragons starter Daisuke Yamai had a perfect game through eight innings when manager Hiromitsu Ochiai controversially summoned Iwase to pitch the 9th. A nervous Iwase sent down the bottom of Nippon Ham’s lineup in order, keeping the perfect game intact and giving Chunichi it’s first Japan Championship since 1954.

You can watch Iwase’s perfect 9th inning on YouTube, or read Gary Garland’s excellent account of the game for more information.

Pitching
Iwase is a three-pitch guy, with a fastball, slider, and shuuto. He’s not going to overpower anyone with a  fastball that sits at about 89 MPH and doesn’t get much faster. That said, his fastball has movement and he spots it well. Iwase’s out pitch is his low 80’s slider, which has good movement and he’ll throw in any count. His third pitch is a shuuto, which he’s throwing more often this year, particularly to right handed hitters. Iwase pitches down in the zone and generally has good command.

I’ve scrounged some YouTube footage of Iwase striking out Yoshinobu Takahashi, not getting the call on a couple of sliders, and throwing fastballs and shuutos in the 2006 All Star game. Yes, that is Daisuke Matsuzaka coaching third base in the All Star game.

Contract Status & MLB Interest
Iwase is among the highest paid pitchers in Japan with his approximately $4.3M/year salary. He qualified for free agency following the 2007 season, but opted to sign a one-year contract to remain with Chunichi. There was speculation that he wanted to see how other Japanese relievers like Masa Kobayashi fare in the big leagues. I’ll also suggest that he wanted to spend another year pitching with his close friend Kenshin Kawakami, and that he wanted to represent Japan in the Olympics. This is purely speculation on my part.

The interest from the MLB side is there. Last year, Iwase drew public interest from the Rockies, Yankees, and White Sox. Sponichi reported earlier this year that the Mariners and Rangers had scouts at the Dragons’ spring training camp. Joel Sherman commented on Iwase during last year’s World Series.

For his part, Iwase seems to be less outspoken about leaving Japan than some of his NPB compatriots. His clearest comment I could find on the matter was “to say I’m not interested would be a lie”.

Synopsis
You’d have to go back to Kazuhiro Sasaki to find an NPB closer with better career numbers than Iwase. Iwase actually beats Sasaki in some categories, but Sasaki’s peak was better than Iwase’s (so far).

Despite the struggles of Yasuhiko Yabuta and Kazuo Fukumori, NPB import relievers have a pretty good track record of MLB success thanks to guys like Sasaki, Akinori Otsuka, Hideki Okajima, and Takashi Saito. That point, combined with Iwase’s achievements, seem to make him a reasonably safe bet for MLB success should he choose to come over. I think the key for him will be to mix up his stuff and not let MLB hitters sit on his fastball.