NPB Tracker

MlbTradeRumors.com has been kind enough to link to me several times, most recently from post about impending NPB free agents. Too bad I didn’t finish this over the weekend; if I had Tim could have included this profile of Chunichi Dragons ace Kenshin Kawakami as well.

Kawakami has, in my opinion, the most MLB potential of any of the upcoming NPB free agents. I expect to see him in an MLB uniform next season, based on public statements he’s made:

“Saying I don’t want to go would be a lie. As long as I’m playing baseball, it’s fine to aim high. I think it’s also fine to consider the future.”

“Because I like the Chunichi Dragons, I want to challenge myself to go to the Majors. My plan is to go to the Majors, gain experience there, and come back to the Nagoya in the end.”

These comments were made in a live talkshow event after the 2006 season, but I have no reason to think he’s changed his mind since then. It’s worth noting that former teammates Akinori Ohtsuka and Kosuke Fukudome have both had success at the MLB level, which might be a bit of a confidence-booster.

Career Path & Personal Accolades
Kawakami is not quite as decorated as Koji Uehara, but he’s close. Kawakami’s pro career started in 1998, went he went 14-6 and took the Rookie of the Year award. He then took a step back and went through some wilderness years between ’99 and ’01, but bounced back in 2002 with a 12-6 record and 2.35 ERA. He also threw a no-hitter in ’02 against a Giants team that still featured Hideki Matsui.

The right hander has put in strong performances each year since then, including 2003 when he missed significant time with an injury. He won the Sawamura Award as Japan’s top pitcher as well as the Central MVP in 2004, when he went 17-7 with a 3.32 ERA in 192 IP. He was actually better in 2006, again going 17-7 but with 2.51 ERA in 215 IP. He lost out on the Sawamura that year to a dominant Kazumi Saitoh.

Other personal achievements include three Gold Gloves, two Best Nine Awards, two victory titles and one strikeout title. He also holds an NPB record with eight Monthly MVP awards, the most recent coming last month.

Kawakami is having another strong year (find his stats in English here) but will probably lose out on the Sawamura again, this time to Yu Darvish.

Winning
Kawakami’s Dragons won the Central League crowns in 1999, 2004, and 2006 and took the Japan Series in 2007. The 2007 Japan Championship was only second in team history, and the first since 1954. The ’07 Japan Series ended in dramatic fashion; maybe I’ll write about that another time. For now I’ll point you to this Baseball Prospectus article (free for the week) and Marinerds, etc.

Stuff
Kawakami isn’t overpowering; his fastball tops out in the low 90’s. His control is good, though not quite as awe-inspiring as Koji Uehara’s. And his windup isn’t deceptive, like many Japanese pitchers. Kawakami gets by purely on quality stuff.

Kawakami’s featured pitch is a cut fastball, which, according to Wikipedia, is known as Japan’s finest among visiting MLB All-Stars. He also has a slow curve, which he throws at 65-70 MPH. The rest of his arsenal is fairly typical: fastball, shuuto, fork. He changes speeds pretty well, particularly between his curve and harder stuff.

I’ve selected some YouTube footage from Kawakami’s most recent appearance, Chunichi’s 2-1 loss to Hanshin on July 18. Kawakami took a no-decision, striking out 10 and allowing one earned run over 8.0 innings. 2nd inning, 3rd/4th inning, 8th inning, and just for fun, Kyuji Fujikawa‘s appearance in the 9th (pt1/pt2).

Also of Note
For those of you that read Japanese, Kenshin maintains a blog here. He is close friends with Chunichi closer Hitoki Iwase, and will be joining him on Japan’s Olympic roster. Wikipedia mentions a friendly rivalry with Uehara — Uehara taught Kawakami his fork, while Kawakami returned the favor by teaching Uehara his cutter. Kawakami is also known as a gutsy player who is not afraid to show his emotions on the field.

Uehara’s stock has slipped some this season, so I think Kawakami has a chance to be the most highly sought after MLB import this off season. I would speculate that he can be a solid mid-rotation guy that you can win with at that MLB level.

Today’s news & links:

• Yu Darvish dominated Rakuten for his 11th win of the season: 9 IP, 10 K, 0 BB, 4 H, 1 ER on 89 pitches. Darvish’s league-leading ERA is now 1.88.
• Hanshin lost yesterday, cutting their lead to 11.5 in the Central League.
• Kazumi Saito has been rehabbing in Arizona, but he’s found time to attend a WNBA game and hang out with Jeremy Giambi.
• Victor Starfin’s daughter did indeed throw out the first pitch at the Giants’ July 15 game.
• NPB teams sending three or more players to the Olympics will be allowed to carry an additional foreign player while they’re Olympians are away. This means some teams will have up to five foreign players on their active rosters.

I’ve been a fan of Hideki Okajima literally since the moment I arrived in Japan for the first time. It was August, 2000 and I had just landed in Osaka to start a tour of foreign study. The bus that I took into the city had a TV in it, and on the way downtown I alternated between watching the brightly-lit arcades and pachinko parlors out the window, and watching the Giants beat whoever they were playing that night.

Okajima was the guy that made the biggest impression on me. His unusual delivery and big breaking pitches jumped out at me as being MLB-caliber*. He did, of course, cross the Pacific to join the Red Sox last year, where he enjoyed great success.

Okajima’s success triggered an MLB interest in NPB veteran relievers last off-season. Three signed with big league teams: Masahide Kobayashi with the Indians, Yasuhiko Yabuta with the Royals, and Kazuo Fukumori with the Rangers.

Number writer Yasushi Kikuchi calls this the “Post Okajima Generation“. But of the three post-Okajima pitchers, only Kobayashi has had any kind of success.

Kikuchi supplies some comments from Kobayashi that give some insight into why he’s done well so far. Here are my translations:

“People around me will evaluate my performance. Evaluating my performance myself is something that I can do when the season is over and the results are in. During the season there is no yesterday. That’s because this is a world where I have to concentrate my feelings, my body, everything on today’s game. It’s been this way since my time in Japan, everyday I have to prepare for a change.

“Of course, there are a lot of amazing batters, and there are times when I feel like I can’t handle it. But on the other hand, I try to think that I’m on the same field (with them) as an equal. I didn’t just come here because I wanted to; I’m here because people let me in. Because if you feel out of place, there’s nothing you’ll be able to do.

“I think that (former Chiba Lotte Marine teammate) Yabuta is a little more jittery and sensitive than I am. I don’t give anything a thought, I just say “oh well” and stay realistic. You can say that (in MLB), the ball sucks, the mound sucks, but we aren’t the first players to come to the Majors and that information is out there ad nauseum. Even if you go bit by bit there’s nothing you can do about it but to throw. If the road you chose is bad, it’s just bad.”

Interesting comments. Sounds like a guy that leaves it all on the field. I’ve always thought of Kobayashi as a fierce competitor, and these comments are right in line with that. Kobayashi really impressed me back in September 2002, in a game against the Seibu Lions.

Seibu slugger Alex Cabrera was chasing Sadaharu Oh’s single season home run record, and came up against Kobayashi in a game against Lotte. Oh’s record had been challenged by foreign-born players before, and the norm had been not to pitch to them. Kobayashi, on the other hand, went after Cabrera with a series of high fastballs. And he struck him out.

Yabuta and Fukumori continue to toil in the minors for their respective teams. Truth be told, I don’t think those guys were ever as good as Okajima or Kobayashi, but there is hope for them. The SF Giants pulled Keiichi Yabu off the scrap heap this season and he’s been an effective member of their bullpen.

Fittingly, Kobayashi took the save for Cleveland in their win over Tampa Bay today, while Okajima picked up a hold for Boston despite giving up two walks.

*Of course, this is easy for me to say now. The other guys on that Giants team I liked were Darrell May and Akira Etoh. May went on to have a good year for the Royals in 2003, while Etoh quickly declined after 2001. May, as far as I know, is out of baseball, while Etoh is hanging around as a pinch hitter for the Saitama Seibu Lions.

Sorry for the lack of updates over the last few days… took a little bit of an extended holiday weekend and did a little traveling. Hope my readers in America hada nice 4th of July. Here are today’s bullet points:

• Hanshin is cruising with a 7-game winning streak(link in English) and has opened up a massive 12.5 game lead on 2nd place Chunichi. They’ve also “lit up” their magic number to clinch a playoff spot. It currently stands at 55.
• In other Hanshin news, pitcher Wakatake threw a no-hitter for the Tigers’ farm team.
• Yu Darvish will be starting the All-Star Game for the Pacific League. Colby Lewis gets the call for the Central League.
• MVPs for the month of June. Central League: Kenshin Kawakami (Chunichi), Tomoaki Kanemoto (Hanshin); Pacific League: Hisashi Iwakuma (Rakuten), Craig Brazell (Seibu). Note that a profile on Kawakami is on my to-do list.
• I stumbled across a new English-language Korean Baseball Blog. Here’s a link.
• Deanna at Marinerds, etc posted a blog about her trip to a minor league game in Japan. Lots of good photos.
• In another stumbling, I found this guy’s YouTube page. Tons of game highlights, posted regularly. All videos in Japanese.

There’s a lot of hype and speculation around Yu Darvish, the anointed successor to Daisuke Matsuzaka as Japan’s ace and the next big MLB import. It’s easy to understand why: Darvish is 21 years old, 6’6, throws a 95MPH fastball as well as five other pitches, and has dominated the Pacific League. If anything, Darvish is a slightly better prospect than Matsuzaka was at this stage.

Unfortunately for hot stove fans, I think it’ll be a long time before we see Yu Darvish in an MLB uniform.

Here’s video from an interview with Darvish conducted prior to last year’s Japan Series. It’s in Japanese, but I’ve translated some highlights below.

“Won’t it be uninteresting for the Japanese children? To give the kids something to enjoy, it’s important for local stars to stay.”

“There aren’t supposed to be players born in Japan who what to go to the majors from the start. You start in Japanese Pro Baseball first.”

“I want to continue playing in Japanese Pro Baseball.”

(source video)

*Note: I’m not satisfied with my translation there. I may revisit this one.

In a sense it’s refreshing that Darvish is committed to Japanese baseball. As much as I like Uehara and Matsuzaka, they’ve been talking about playing in the Majors since day one. It’s nice to see that Darvish is focused on NPB, at least for now.

I don’t think it’ll last though. If Darvish continues to perform at the level he’s at, I have a hard time believing he wouldn’t want to challenge himself at the MLB level. The interest is certainly there on the MLB side.

From a practicality standpoint though, it’s going to take a while. Darvish still needs to accumulate six more years of service time beyond this season before qualifying for international free agency. So that’s a long way off.

Which brings to the question of whether Nippon Ham would post Darvish. I think posting is actually Darvish’s most likely route to MLB, but let’s examine this.

Let’s assume that Darvish would command a posting fee similar to the $51,111,111.11 that Seibu got for Matsuzaka. Actually let’s bump that up a little and guess that Darvish will fetch $60M for his team. This is just a wild, totally, unscientific guess for the sake of argument so don’t take it too seriously.

If Nippon Ham were to post Darvish after this season, they’d essentially be selling their right to employ him for the next six years for $60M. I think Darvish is worth far more to the Fighters than this. Financially speaking, he’s a huge asset as he’s Japan’s most popular player, and can sell tickets, merchandise and attract fans on television and the internet. I don’t have numbers on what Darvish actually pulls in, but I think he is the single biggest draw in NPB.

Darvish is also at the core of the Fighter’s competitive efforts. Nippon Ham is experiencing kind of a golden age right, now coming off back-to-back Japan Series apperances (winning in 2006), and are competitive again this year. Darvish is one of the players that got them to competitiveness after years of being a doormat. As other key figures like manager Trey Hillman (KC Royals), Tsuyoshi Shinjo (retirement), and Michihiro Ogasawara (Yomiuri Giants) have departed, Darvish has become even more central to the team’s success.

The only way Nippon Ham will post Darvish is if it comes down to posting him or losing him to free agency. I suspect it’ll eventually come down to that, and Nippon Ham will have to make a choice like the Indians have to make with C.C. Sabathia this year, and the Rangers made last year with Mark Teixiera. I could be wrong, but I think we’ll see him in an MLB uniform in 2014 or so but not before then. By then he’ll be 27-28 and have some mileage on his arm, but still be solidly in his prime.

The good news is that we get to see him play in Japan for several more years, and represent Japan in international competition. The media attention Darvish has garnered in America has seemed to generate some interest in Japanese baseball. I hope this will be beneficial for the sustainability of NPB.

I’ll post a more complete profile of Darvish at some point in the future, and track his performance throughout the season. For now, here are his career numbers (through 2007) and some brief game footage.

The blurb I posted on Koji Uehara got a fair bit of traffic, so it seems like a good time to write a more complete profile on him. Uehara has a long-stated desire to pitch for an MLB team, and had requests to be posted denied by his team in 2004 and 2005. The righty met the service time requirements for free agency earlier this year and is a lock to sign with an MLB team this off season.

Achievements
Uehara has spent his entire nine year career with the storied Yomiuri Giants franchise. In his first season in 1999, he outperformed fellow rookie Daisuke Matsuzaka with 20-4 record and 2.04 ERA, winning the Central League Rookie of the Year Award (Matsuzaka went 16-5, 2.60 and took the Pacific League award). 1999 also saw Uehara take home the first of his two Sawamura Awards* as well as several other awards.

Although he’s never quite matched the numbers he put up in his rookie year, Uehara has been an effective pitcher ever since, and dominant when healthy. His 2002 season (17-5, 2.60 ERA 182/23 K/BB in 204 IP) was good enough for a second Sawamura Award. He’s also played for Japan Series winners in 2000 and 2002, and shutdown Korea in the 2006 WBC semi-final game.

Uehara’s career numbers (up to 2007) can be found at JapaneseBaseball.com.

Pitching
Uehara relies on a fastball that he can throw wherever he wants, and runs up to 91 mph. He also features a forkball with late movement, a shuuto, and the occasional cut fastball. You can see him in action against Korea in the 2006 WBC on this youtube video. Uehara is a control pitcher, and has never given up more than 28 walks in any season (in 138 IP in 2001). His biggest weakness has been the home run ball.

Rotation or Bullpen?
Uehara has been a starter for most of his career, and that’s where he had most of his success. In 2007, he was put into the closer role after returning from an injury, and not moved back into the rotation for the rest of the season. The manager cited his success in bullpen (32 saves, 1.74 ERA, 66/4 K/BB in 62 IP), but some felt that the Giants were spiting him for his intent to move to MLB. He has also been used as a reliever in international competition. The Giants added fireballing closer Marc Kroon this season, and moved Uehara back into the rotation, but he spent time on injured reserve and will rejoin the team as a reliever.

Of Note
Uehara has the somewhat quirky characteristic of always wearing a long sleeve shirt when he pitches. He collects baseball memorabilia as a hobby, and is good friends with the Dodgers’ Hiroki Kuroda. Uehara is 33 years old and played college ball at Osaka University of Health and Sport Sciences.

Future
Uehara’s intent is to come to MLB after this season, and I think he’ll be one of the more successful pitchers to come over from Japan. Uehara’s playing on a competitive Giants team this season and should be motivated to go out on a high note, so he’ll be fun to follow this season. Look out for more posts on him over the course of the year.

*The Sawamura Award is the award for Japan’s top pitcher, equivilent to MLB’s Cy Young Award. Unlike the Cy Young, it’s only awarded to one pitcher in Japan, rather than one pitcher in each league. Pitchers are judged on performance in seven areas, which I’ll go over in a different post.

MLB-bound pitcher Koji Uehara will return to the Yomiuri Giants when league play resumes on June 27. Uehara began the season in rotation, going 0-4 with a 6.75 before missing two months with an injury. He’ll return as a middle reliever, with current middle relief ace Kentaro Nishimura moving into the rotation to accomodate the move.

Uehara is Japan’s top control pitcher, and has long stated his intent to move to MLB once he qualifies for free agency. He met the service time requirement earlier this season, so this figures to be his farewell tour with the Giants. I’ll post a more complete profile of him in the coming weeks.

Sources (on Uehara’s comeback).

Hochi Sports, Sanspo

If I had to pick a guy from Japan to take on a MLB team, I’d have to go with Yu Darvish. But if I didn’t want to shell out the bucks for Darvish, Hanshin Tigers closer Kyuji Fujikawa would be my pick.

Kyuji hasn’t gotten the same level of media attention as Darvish has, for good reason — he’s older (28), he’s a relief pitcher, he suffered from injuries early in his career, and he hasn’t played for a Japan Series winner yet. But Kyuji is in the fourth year of probably the most dominant run for a relief pitcher in NPB history. And given that NPB relief pitchers have a solid track record of MLB success, Kyuji might be a little bit of a safer bet anyway.

Numbers

Kyuji’s numbers are pretty mindblowing. This season, he’s 2-1, with a 0.88 era and 23 saves. But Kyuji’s trademark is his ability to strike guys out, and he ranks ninth overall in the Central League with 50 K’s. In 30 innings. For comparison’s sake, the eight guys that are ahead of him are all starters and have pitched at least 65 innings. Kyuji’s strikeout numbers have been amazing for the last four years:

Other achievements include a 47 2/3 inning shutout streak in 2006, and tying the Japan record with 46 saves last season.

Tools

Kyuji’s primary weapon is a hard fastball with a rising action (looks like a 4-seamer). He usually sits at 92-93 but can gun it up to 95 on occasion. He also has a forkball with a sharp break that throws infrequently. Kyuji isn’t afraid of challenging batters and misses a lot of bats.

Future

Kyuji requested to be posted to be the major leagues last off-season but his request was summarily denied by Hanshin’ management, who stated he was too important to the team’s competitiveness. Three major leaguers have come from Hashin: Tsuyoshi Shinjo, Keiichi Yabu, and Kei Igawa. Of the three, only Igawa was posted and according to Hanshin’s management he was an extreme exception (sports-navi, in Japanese). Injuries cost Kyuji roster time early in his career, so he won’t reach free agency for 3-4 more years. If he’s coming to MLB any time soon, it will be via the posting system. What happens next will depend on what Hanshin values more highly: the $10-15MM posting fee Kyuji is likely to attract, or having him on the team for 3-4 more years.

Kyuji Fujikawa on YouTube (in Japanese):

Fujikawa’s Fastball

Kyuji vs Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, May 2008

Kyuji vs Kevin Youklis (starts 30sec in)