NPB Tracker

So Aroldis Chapman has defected from Cuba. With all the hype around Chapman during the WBC, I thought a defection was inevitable, but I didn’t see it happening this year. It will take Chapman a little time to apply for asylum and set up a domicile somewhere, but we should see a bidding war emerge over the next couple months.

Prior to the WBC, I would have said that if Chapman were to defect this year, his contract offers would have exceeded the four-year, $32m deal that Jose Contreras got from the Yankees back in 2002. But now that we’ve seen him look mortal against Japan’s WBC lineup of contact hitters, learned that Cuban League numbers aren’t that great, and found out that he might be five years older than previously believed, I have my doubts. Chapman’s first MLB contract will make him a richer man than I’ll ever be, but I think his first MLB deal will make him only about $20m richer than me.

For another dose of reality on Chapman, I turn to Cuban baseball expert Peter Bjarkman, who wrote bearish article about Chapman after he defected:

Chapman definitely has his negatives, foremost among them a demonstrated lack of strike-zone control, a one-pitch arsenal, and an inconsistent Cuban League performance over four National Series campaigns. Hurling for a Holguín club that made this year’s post-season and has been largely a middle-of-the-pack outfit during Chapman’s tenure, the southpaw flame thrower has won only slightly more than half his decisions (24-21), though he did enjoy his best season (11-4 and a league-best 130 Ks in 118 innings) this past winter. He has twice topped the 100 K mark but never approached Maels’s record-setting standards. Chapman is definitely more a raw “thrower” than a savvy “pitcher” and numerous questions surround his abilities to master the finer details of his craft.

One of the things that makes this situation unique is that it’s happening post Information Revolution. Thanks to the Internet and WBC, we, as consumers, have learned more about Chapman than perhaps any other hyped Cuban defector. Will that help his market value? There’s no way we can really know for sure. I think we’ll see that the Internet hype will have the biggest impact on the fans’ expectations of him.

I’ve occasionally wondered why Japanese clubs don’t make more of a play for top Cuban talent. In theory, NPB teams should be able to go after Cuban players without them having to defect. Katsuya Nomura joked about this during the WBC: “we probably can’t get him (Chapman). Would it be okay to ask Castro?”.

Joking aside, Nomura actually has brought Cuban players to Japan: national team stars Antonio Pacheco and Orestes Kindelan played for him in the early 00’s on the Shidax Industrial League team. During the same period, Omar Linares played for Chunichi at the NPB level. The difference, of course, is that Chapman is young and entering his prime, which Pacheco, Kindelan and Linares were all winding down their careers. But still, none of the three had to denounce their Cuban citizenship and all were able to return to Cuba after playing in Japan.

So maybe this means we’ll get to see Pedro Lazo or Yunieski Gourriel in Japan at some point. I hope so, because it doesn’t seem like either one will ever defect, and I’d love to see what they can do at a higher level of competition.

I’m participating in a fantasy baseball league this year, at the invitation of Tim Dierkes. It’s the first time I’ve tried fantasy baseball, and while the time I have for it kind of waxes and wanes, I try to look at it every day or two.

One of the guys I’ve had on my roster all year is Mark Buehrle. Today I logged into the fantasy site a bit later than usual, and noticed that Buehrle had a start today, but was on my bench. I quickly moved him into a starting position, and was rewarded with a perfect game. My only regret is that I didn’t see the game. I was off by a couple of time zones.

I’ve never gotten to see a no-hitter all the way through, even on TV. I came close when Jonathan Sanchez threw one a couple of weeks ago for the Giants, but was stuck at work. And those of you who joined me last weekend saw Hanshin’s Atsushi Nohmi take a no-no into the 7th, only to give up a single to Alex Ramirez. Maybe someday.

The post I wrote yesterday on the discarding the MLB draft certainly generated some lively debate. I’d like to thank everyone who took the time to comment. I’m also happy to see that this topic spawned interesting conversation on other sites, particularly Orioles Hangout.

To summarize what I wrote yesterday, the problems that I observed and would like to see addressed were:

• the inequity between players born in the US and outside the US
• the fact that the draft system can still be gamed by teams, players, and agents
• the potential for domestic leagues in other countries (Japan in particular) to get into bickering matches with MLB over territorial rights to players

I realize that this is in some ways an oversimplification, but my biggest point is that the current MLB draft is an outdated system that fails to account for the diversity we have in baseball today. My proposal was to eliminate the draft entirely, and replace it with a regulated free agent market, in which teams would have specific parameters on spending and number of players acquired. Some readers seemed to like the idea, others had different suggestions. Here are a few:

• force all players wishing to enter MLB through a draft
• move to a free agent system with strict bonus slots (nod to Crawdad @ Orioles Hangout)
• change the ages at which players are allowed to sign with MLB organizations
• keep the draft, but enforce caps on bonuses
• leave it alone

I’ll end this one with a question: what would you do to improve the MLB player entry system?

Stumbled across this on Sponichi in Japanese, then found it in English on the Japan Times site — the Indians have released Masahide Kobayashi at is request. The Japan Times has a translated comment from Kobayashi: “Nothing is decided at the moment and I am having my agent look for a team for me (in the United States). In the meantime I will just keep myself ready to pitch.”

Kobayashi was better in the minors than with Cleveland, but still uninspiring. I always take AAA numbers with a grain of salt though, as he could have been working on a changeup or something. Walking away from a contract is a gutsy move, though assuming he’s healthy I think someone will take a flyer on him.

The votes are in, and the winner is… Shane Victorino. In a victory for two-flapped helmets, the Flyin’ Hawaiian took the win over the Kung Fu Panda by probably the slimmest of margins. I say “probably” because while the MLB.com article didn’t reveal Pablo’s vote total, it did say that the Panda was only two percent behind going into Thursday, and that Victorino won with a record of 15.6 million votes.

NPB Tracker readers — we’ll have to do better next year.

このブログを読んでくれている方々は、高い確率でキース・ローさん(Keith Law)の事はご存知かと思います。キースさんは長年ベースボール・プロスペクタス、そしてトロント・ブルージェーズで経験を積み、現在はESPNのScouts Inc.のリードベースボール・アナリストとしてご活躍されています。キースさんはお忙しい中ダルビッシュ有投手と2009年にワシントン・ナショナルズによってドラフト１位選択されたステーブン・ストラスバーグを比較するべきいくつかの質問に答えてくれました。

NPB Tracker：ストラスバーグの球種はダルビッシュに比べるとどうですか？

Keith Law: ダルビッシュの方がストラスバーグに比べて見せ球を多く持っていて、四つの球種を持っていますが春の期間は二つしか主に使っていませんでした。

NT: どちらの投球フォームを好みますか？

KL: ストラスバーグですね- 簡単でバラつきがない - ですがまっすぐな彼の腕のふりの速さは予想できない部分もあります。 我々はあれだけ速い球をあれほどの腕のふりの速さで投げる先発投手に触れた経験はあまりありません。

NT: 二人のうちの一人を今年中にメジャーリーグのローテーションにいれるとしたらどちらですか？

KL: どちらでも間違った答えにはならないと思いますが、高いレベルの相手との経験値を踏まえて私はダルビッシュを選びます。

NT: どちらの方に今後の可能性を感じますか、それは何故ですか？

KL: 良い質問ですね、その答えについては私も行ったり来たりという状態です。ストラスバーグの直球とカーブのキレの方がダルビッシュの決め球二つを上回ると思っていますので、ストラスバーグを取ります。

NT: キースさんありがとうございました。

Voting is underway for the final two MLB All-Stars, and NPB Tracker is proud to officially endorse Pablo Sandoval for the final NL All-Star spot. Living in the Bay Area, I’ve seen my share of both the Giants and the A’s, and the Kung Fu Panda is easily the most fun position player on either team. Pablo’s stats hold up against any of the other four NL candidates as well.

So I ask everyone to stand with me by Thursday, July 9, 1:00pm PDT, and vote for a third baseman we can believe in. Together, we can make Pablo an All-Star. Yes, we can.

Baseball has grown into a global game and the Boston Red Sox and the Chiba Lotte Marines are working to keep it that way for the next generation. The Japan Society of Boston and the Red Sox Foundation teamed up to bring Japanese youth to Boston in the summer of 2008, and will send Greater Boston youth to Japan in 2009.

The Chiba Lotte Marines will take part in the program this summer and is currently looking for host families for the 12 youths from Boston. If you’re interested in hosting a youth, you may download the application from the website.

Last year, Boston played host to 12 youths coming from Kyoto and Chiba (Kyoto is a sister city of Boston). This program had several meanings as Kyoto and Boston was celebrating their 50th anniversary as sister cities. Another meaning to the exchange program came from the commemoration of the official partnership between the Chiba Lotte Marines and the Boston Red Sox. Those are the reasons behind youth from both Kyoto and Chiba participating in this program.

The participants experienced the whole package of American baseball and the city of Boston in their eleven day program (including travel). Japanese native Hideki Okajima (who is also from Kyoto) and Daisuke Matsuzaka took part in the program as an instructors and for a meet and greet opportunity with the youth (pictures can be seen on the Kyoto City website).

Now the Chiba Lotte Marines will look to return the favor and will welcome the youth from Boston to experience the culture of Japan. The youth will also have the opportunity to attend a Chiba Lotte Marines game and will be interesting what else the team has planned for them.

The world has gotten smaller with the game of baseball reaching to many part of the globe. The kids in Japan are watching MLB at a younger age with their stars going overseas and the American kids are being exposed to Japanese stars on a daily basis. However the youth in each country might not be exposed to anything more than that. Youth exchange programs like this should allow the next generation to understand and experience the different cultures starting from baseball.

Among a number of other moves, the Mets demoted 40 year-old lefty Ken Takahashi on June 22. Said Takahashi: “I was called in by the manager and GM, and I thought it might be this. In the minors I’ll probably start, and I’ll probably be able to throw a lot”. Takahashi had posted a 3.00 era with 16 strikeouts in 18 innings for the Mets.

The other day, Sponichi ran some comments from Hideki Matsui in response to the revelation that Hanshin might be interested in signing him after the season. Here’s what he had to say:

When told about Hanshin’s interest…

“I’m happy that they would say that, I have to appreciate it. Because I was a Hanshin fan when I was a kid.”

When asked if he’d prefer to finish his career in the States…

“Basically that’s right, but since I don’t know what will come up I don’t know what will happen.”

It’s worth noting that Sponichi put the “I don’t know what will happen” quote in the headline, which I find a little out of character for the ultra-speculative Japanese media.

Sponichi has more from after the Yankees’ June 17 game against Washington:

“I flat-out can’t have this discussion now. But I appreciate that they have interest. I was a Hanshin fan when I was a kid.”

So there you have it. Keep an eye on this space come November.

While we’re here, to give you an idea of how analytical the Japanese press can be, the same blurb points out that Matsui’s batting average in games after he’s hit a home run is .111.