NPB Tracker

We interupt our regularly scheduled programming to bring you non-Tazawa news.

Kenshin Kawakami and Koji Uehara are slowly beginning to make news. I expect to hear a lot more about them after CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, AJ Burnett, and Junichi Tazawa sign. There are a few items to pass along though.

Kawakami: Has reportedly changed agents from Tony Attanasio to former Dodgers GM Dan Evans, the agent that got Kosuke Fukudome signed with the Cubs. Initially it was reported that Evans would only handle Kawakami’s negotiations with Japanese teams, but that doesn’t seem to be the case any longer.

Hanshin seems to be the only NPB team interested in signing Kawakami. It was previously reported they would offer 4 years, $18M, but it’s since been reported that they are prepared to offer a deal in excess of 3 years, $18M. An average salary of $6M+ seems a lot more likely to get a deal done, but I still think he’s headed to the Majors. 

On the MLB side of the Pacific, the Giants, Mets, and Red Sox have been mentioned as possible suitors. Being a Bay Area resident I know which one I’d go for.

Uehara: Uehara is looking for a multi-year deal that will let him remain a starter. Nikkan Sports suggests that eight teams might be interested: the Orioles, Giants, Yankees, Mets, Angels, Rangers, Indians, and Twins. Any team that needs rotational depth and isn’t afraid to commit to two years could be a fit for Uehara.

I’ve also updated my free agent list, with resolutions for all but the seven guys that filed. And let’s squeeze in a link to EWC’s MLB projections for Uehara and Kawakami.

From the self-congratulatory dept: I’m a little surprised at how many mainstream media sites have linked to my content on Junichi Tazawa. Here are the ones that have come to my attention:

1. NBC Sports
2. Washington Post
3. AOL Fanhouse
4. Dallas News
5. Boston Score
6. Boston Herald
7. NESN

Update, Nov 24 Evening: I found a little more on these guys in this Indian publication. Kind of gives you a sense of what kind of background they’re coming from. Aaron and Jackson from EWC have posted scouting reports of the two as well.

Found on Yahoo! Japan: the Pirates have signed Indian pitchers Dinesh Patel and Rinku Singh. EastWindupChronicle had a detailed report on Patel and Singh earlier in the month. The two signed minor league contracts and will participate in the Pirates’ minor league camp next year.

Sure, this is outside of the normal scope of NPB Tracker, but it was reported in the Japanese media and I couldn’t pass up reporting on it. I really like seeing baseball expand in this kind of way.

Just when it looked like the bidding war for Junichi Tazawa was going to end before it started, the Rangers stepped in and made things interesting. Texas director of Asia-Pacific scouting Jim Colborn met with Tazawa for nearly two hours, and reportedly made the best offer yet received. No details have been disclosed so far.

We now have reports on official offers from:

• Atlanta
• Boston
• Seattle
• Texas

Sponichi has published a detailed account of the contract Boston offered to Junichi Tazawa. The article also quotes  “They want me to come over, and I understand how I can develop. I feel like it’s a good team”. Nikkan Sports is reporting that Tazawa has already decided on the Red Sox, and says that he’ll be able to officially sign at the beginning of December.

Some highlights:

• 3 year, $3M contract (that’s $1M/year)
• Major League contract
• start off at class AA
• remain a starter
• personal translator

Remember Yu Darvish? Google Trends indicates that he’s been supplanted, probably temporarily, by Junichi Tazawa as the Next Big Thing out of Japan. I’m sure Darvish appreciates the break from the spotlight that Tazawa has afforded him.

Darvish got himself back in the news today over comments he made at the Nippon Ham Fighters’ Fan Festival. In an interview event, he told the crowd of 43K+, “I want to aim to win 200 games (in Japan). I’m not dreaming of the majors”. He’s already won 48 NPB games, so provided he stays healthy 200 wins is a very attainable goal. He also said that he will accept an invitation to play for Japan in the WBC.

During the event Darvish also donned bee costume for an obstacle course race against his teammates, and rode a tricycle, which kind of makes him the anti-Randall Simon. The article doesn’t say if he won or not. 

Update: $6m figure was later contradicted. Please see this post.

Sanspo is reporting that Red Sox VP for international scouting Craig Shipley spent 1 hour 50 minutes negotiating with Junichi Tawaza, resulting in a $6M contract offer. No word on whether it’s a major league deal or not.

The Yomiuri has a brief mention of an offer from the Mariners, including appearance and innings-based incentives. If that’s true, I hope those incentives are a few years down the road as this is a 22 year-old kid who’s already been overworked by his industrial league team. The Indians and Tigers meetings with Tazawa made the Japanese news, but so far I haven’t seen any reports of contract offers from either team.

Tazawa’s Eneos career ended with a loss to JR Tokai in the final tournament of the amateur season. After pitching shutouts in the first two rounds of the tourney, Tazawa entered the semi-final game in the 7th inning with runners on first and second and the game tied 2-2. Tazawa gave up a single that scored what proved to be the winning run. The victorious JR Tokai went on to lose to Toyota in the final. (Here’s the Kyodo English-language writeup)

In the spirit of keepin’ it real, here’s a great article from Jim Allen, and a great response from Aaron Shinsano of East Windup Chronicle.

NPB’s free agency filing period ended on the 19th (JST) with seven players exercising their rights to become free agents. Unlike MLB, in NPB it’s not a given that players eligible for free agency will actually file. It’s actually the exception rather than the rule. It’s worth exploring why that is, but that’s a post for another day. For now, let’s take a look at the seven guys who filed and where they’ll wind up.

Koji Uehara (P, Yomiuri Giants): Written plenty on Uehara already. I see him going to the Cardinals as a swingman.

Kenshin Kawakami (P, Chunichi Dragons): Written about him too. I think he’ll sign with the Braves and fill a mid-rotation spot. 

Ken Takahashi (P, HIroshima Carp): Veteran lefty wants to try MLB. The Mets seem like a logical fit.

Ryoji Aikawa (C,  Yokohama BayStars): Wants to play in the majors, and has hired Alan Nero as his agent. Has already worked out for a couple of MLB teams. He’ll probably only command a minor league deal, so he’ll probably get a short with someone looking for organizational depth at catcher. Maybe Detroit. 

Daisuki Miura (P, Yokohama BayStars): Decided to test the market. Will discuss a move to the majors if it comes up. Hanshin is making a play for him, and I think that’s where he’ll wind up.

Toshihiro Noguchi (C, Hanshin Tigers): Veteran backup catcher is exploring his options. Hanshin seems resigned to him leaving. I think he’ll wind up with Yokohama to replace Aikawa.

Norihiro Nakamura (3B, Chunichi Dragons): Previously said that he wanted to finish his career with Chunichi, changed his mind when they only offered him a one-year deal and decided to move him off third. Rakuten and Nippon Ham are both interested in his services, but I’ll give Rakuten the edge in signing him.

These players are free to begin negotiating with teams from the 20th.

When I see Kenshin Kawakami mentioned in an American blog or media report, it’s usually this context:

The Sox also have interest in Kenshin Kawakami, a 33-year-old righty for the Chunichi Dragons who went 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA last season. Kawakami is a Hiroki Kuroda-type pitcher with a cut fastball and good curveball who could man the No. 4 or 5 spot in the Sox rotation.

I normally interpret the comparison to Hiroki Kuroda as “not as good as Daisuke Matsuzaka, but better than Kei Igawa“. In addition to that, they’re both right-handed, about the same age, and have long track records of success in Japan’s Central League.

There are a couple of differences:

1. Kuroda is a fastball/slider/splitter pitcher, while Kawakami is mostly a fastball/cutter/curveball guy. Kuroda can reach the mid-90’s on his heater, while Kawakami sits in the low-90’s and relies a little more on movement and off-speed stuff.

2. Kawakami has spent his career with a usually competitive Chunichi Dragons team, while Kuroda spent his career with the perennial also-ran Hiroshima Carp. Kawakami has had a consistently outstanding infield defense behind him for his NPB career, while I don’t think the same can be said of the Carp defense. Kawakami has also pitched in more big games.

3. Kuroda pitched his home games in Japan at the tiny Hiroshima Municipal Stadium, while Kawakami enjoyed the much larger dimensions of the Nagoya Dome.

With the above three points noted, I’d say that Kawakami is a slightly worse MLB prospect than Kuroda was last year, but let’s test that assumption with some performance data. This will be a simplistic analysis, but hopefully it will provide a better insight into Kawakami as a prospect.

Using stats from the excellent Data League site (Japanese, works best in Internet Explorer), I put together some simple comparisons to try to isolate the differences between the two pitchers. I looked at the period between 1998-2007, tossing out Kuroda’s 1997 because Kawakami hadn’t started his career yet and 2008 because the two pitchers were in different leagues.

ERA Trends

Kuroda’s DIPSera was pretty consistent his last few years in Japan, but his actual ERA varied widely, which is probably the result of an inconsistent defense. Kawakami, on the other hand, has put up consistent DIPSera and ERA numbers.

K/BB Trending

This one surprised me. Kawakami matched Kuroda on strikeout rate consistently in Japan, and bested him in ’06 and ’07. Both pitchers have done a good job improving on their control as they gained experience.

If anything, this and the previous chart point out that Kuroda was coming off a relatively poor season by his standards in ’07. Kawakami, on the other hand will be coming off a much better 2008 season statistically, though he did miss time due to minor injuries and the Olympics.

It’s easy to favor Kuroda as a pitcher because of his stuff (I do), but Kawakami has been a consistent performer over the last eight years. Should Kawakami pursue a career in MLB (and I think he will), his performance will obviously depend on where he winds up. But if he can continue to keep the ball down in the zone and miss bats with his breaking stuff, I see no reason why he can’t be an effective mid-rotation starter.

Japanese news from the usual sources for today.

Japanese Articles:

• The Indians have reportedly gotten into the Junichi Tazawa race despite Mark Shapiro. Meanwhile, Tazawa’s final tournament as an amateur begins on the 17th. He’s not hiring an agent and plans to negotiate during the tournament, and will be eligible to sign after it ends on the 24th. 
• Kenshin Kawakami filed for free agency, after pausing for a bit. “I want to choose the team that needs me the most and the team that I feel like I really want to play for”. 
• Orix is working on a contract with Baltimore AAA righty Jon Leicester, and has added Richard Hidalgo to their list of acquisition targets. Hidalgo’s name emerging is interesting — he hasn’t played in the bigs since 2005 and is currently in the Venezuelan Winter League. 
• Former “Face of the BayStars” Takuro Ishii has agreed to a contract with the Hiroshma Carp. Hiroshima also signed 4th-round draft pick Son-Hyon Shin to an entry-level contract with a ï¿¥20,000,000 ($200K) signing bonus.
• Hiram Bocachica is returning to Seibu, saying that game 7 of the Japan Series was the best day in his baseball career. 
• Softbank is going after an MLB free agent this off-season. No word on who they might be targeting, but they have 10 guys on their list. Softbank overpaid for Tony Bautista a few years ago; I hope they do better this time.