NPB Tracker

The NPB players union is meeting on the 25th to discuss a new proposal that would change the rules of free agency. The key change being discussed is a reduction in the amount of service time needed to move to a different team in Japan. If this initiative passes, attaining domestic free agency would require eight years of service time, while international free agency would still require nine. For players drafted out of college or the industrial leagues in 2007, domestic free agency would require seven years of service time.

Free Agency rules are notoriously strict in Japan. “Nine years service time” is defined as 145 days of being active on the top team’s roster for nine seasons. Time missed for injuries is deducted from the total. Teams signing domestic free agents are also required to compensate the player’s former team with either money or a player and less money. The cash compensation is rather steep: either 1.2 times the player’s previous year’s salary. Alternatively, the new team can choose to let the player’s former team take a player from an unprotected list, and 0.8 times the free agent’s previous salary.

Players moving to MLB are obviously not subject to these restrictions, so there’s an imbalance for free agents. There was very little risk, for example, for the Red Sox in signing Hideki Okajima as they were only responsible for his salary. An NPB team signing Okajima would have had to pay his salary, some cash, and possibly a player. My gut feeling is that the new free agency rules proposal is intended to help keep Japanese stars in NPB. I agree with the effort, but perhaps a better approach would be to lessen some of the restrictions on Japanese teams signing free agents, or negotiate a compensation framework with MLB for NPB free agents.

For more information, Sanspo, Wikipedia (both Japanese)

The blurb I posted on Koji Uehara got a fair bit of traffic, so it seems like a good time to write a more complete profile on him. Uehara has a long-stated desire to pitch for an MLB team, and had requests to be posted denied by his team in 2004 and 2005. The righty met the service time requirements for free agency earlier this year and is a lock to sign with an MLB team this off season.

Achievements
Uehara has spent his entire nine year career with the storied Yomiuri Giants franchise. In his first season in 1999, he outperformed fellow rookie Daisuke Matsuzaka with 20-4 record and 2.04 ERA, winning the Central League Rookie of the Year Award (Matsuzaka went 16-5, 2.60 and took the Pacific League award). 1999 also saw Uehara take home the first of his two Sawamura Awards* as well as several other awards.

Although he’s never quite matched the numbers he put up in his rookie year, Uehara has been an effective pitcher ever since, and dominant when healthy. His 2002 season (17-5, 2.60 ERA 182/23 K/BB in 204 IP) was good enough for a second Sawamura Award. He’s also played for Japan Series winners in 2000 and 2002, and shutdown Korea in the 2006 WBC semi-final game.

Uehara’s career numbers (up to 2007) can be found at JapaneseBaseball.com.

Pitching
Uehara relies on a fastball that he can throw wherever he wants, and runs up to 91 mph. He also features a forkball with late movement, a shuuto, and the occasional cut fastball. You can see him in action against Korea in the 2006 WBC on this youtube video. Uehara is a control pitcher, and has never given up more than 28 walks in any season (in 138 IP in 2001). His biggest weakness has been the home run ball.

Rotation or Bullpen?
Uehara has been a starter for most of his career, and that’s where he had most of his success. In 2007, he was put into the closer role after returning from an injury, and not moved back into the rotation for the rest of the season. The manager cited his success in bullpen (32 saves, 1.74 ERA, 66/4 K/BB in 62 IP), but some felt that the Giants were spiting him for his intent to move to MLB. He has also been used as a reliever in international competition. The Giants added fireballing closer Marc Kroon this season, and moved Uehara back into the rotation, but he spent time on injured reserve and will rejoin the team as a reliever.

Of Note
Uehara has the somewhat quirky characteristic of always wearing a long sleeve shirt when he pitches. He collects baseball memorabilia as a hobby, and is good friends with the Dodgers’ Hiroki Kuroda. Uehara is 33 years old and played college ball at Osaka University of Health and Sport Sciences.

Future
Uehara’s intent is to come to MLB after this season, and I think he’ll be one of the more successful pitchers to come over from Japan. Uehara’s playing on a competitive Giants team this season and should be motivated to go out on a high note, so he’ll be fun to follow this season. Look out for more posts on him over the course of the year.

*The Sawamura Award is the award for Japan’s top pitcher, equivilent to MLB’s Cy Young Award. Unlike the Cy Young, it’s only awarded to one pitcher in Japan, rather than one pitcher in each league. Pitchers are judged on performance in seven areas, which I’ll go over in a different post.

MLB-bound pitcher Koji Uehara will return to the Yomiuri Giants when league play resumes on June 27. Uehara began the season in rotation, going 0-4 with a 6.75 before missing two months with an injury. He’ll return as a middle reliever, with current middle relief ace Kentaro Nishimura moving into the rotation to accomodate the move.

Uehara is Japan’s top control pitcher, and has long stated his intent to move to MLB once he qualifies for free agency. He met the service time requirement earlier this season, so this figures to be his farewell tour with the Giants. I’ll post a more complete profile of him in the coming weeks.

Sources (on Uehara’s comeback).

Hochi Sports, Sanspo

NPB Interleague Play wraps up over the weekend, and Nippon Ham will need to win both of it’s games against Hanshin to have a shot at winning the Interleague title*. Yu Darvish has offered to pitch in relief over the weekend if it will give his team a chance to win. Darvish last pitched on June 17, throwing 128 pitches over seven innings in the Fighters’ 8-7 win. He allowed three earned runs while striking out nine and walking four.

Hopefully Nippon Ham manager Nashida sees the bigger picture and doesn’t burn out his ace pitcher over a game that ultimately doesn’t hold any special meaning.

Source: Sanspo (in Japanese)

*In Japan, Interleague games are sorted of treated as a separate championship within the season. Each team’s results still factor in to their normal won-lost records, but they also keep separate standings for Interleague games, and the team with the best record is considered the champion. The Interleague Championship doesn’t have any playoff implications and isn’t a big deal at the end of the day. The Interleague contenders are:

Going into the final Interleague weekend, Hanshin plays Nippon Ham and Softbank plays Yomiuri. So despite the Interleague games not being worth any more in the standings than any other game, making it a little more of a competition does at a bit of intrigue.

This is perhaps the most internationally famous catch in Japanese baseball history. A picture of it is featured in the American Hall of Fame.

I started this blog mid-season, so we’ll need to get caught up on the season. The current Central League standings are:

Japanesebaseball.com always has this information up to date, in English, on it’s homepage.

Hanshin Tigers
With a 7.5 game lead over Chunichi, Hanshin is racing toward it’s third Central League title in the last six years. A shutdown bullpen led by Kyuji Fujikawa, Jeff Williams, and Tomoyuki Kubota means that Hanshin’s starters only have to keep their team in the game for for 5-6 innings to have a shot to win. Starter Minoru Iwata has been a revelation with a 5-3 record and 2.13 ERA. The Tigers’ offense leads the league in runs with 268 despite a league-low 33 home runs. If the Tigers can continue to manufacture runs and hit in the clutch, there’s no reason to think they can’t win the Central crown this year.

There’s detailed Tigers blog on Japanesebaseball.com that I recommend checking out.

Chunichi Dragons
The defending champion Dragons have remained competitive with in the Central League, despite the loss of star outfielder Kosuke Fukudome to the Cubs. Chunichi would certainly be a better team with him in the lineup, but then again they managed to win Japan Series last year, even though Fukudome missed significant time with an injury.

This year’s Dragons so far have the best ERA in the Central League at 3.02. Their strength is the rotation, which is anchored by Kenshin Kawakami, Kazuki Yoshimi, and Takashi Ogasawara. In the bullpen, closer Hitoki Iwase continues to impress with 21 saves and a 2.25 ERA. The lineup has some thump with a Central League-leadin 64 total homeruns, with Tyrone Woods and Norihiro Nakamura among the league leaders. Fukudome’s replacement in the lineup Kazuhiro Wada is having a strong season at the plate with a .323 avg and 8 home runs.

Yomiuri Giants
The Giants got off to a slow start but after 66 games are finally over .500. The Giants typically feature a power in they’re lineup, and this year is no exception. Former Yakult Swallow Alex Ramirez leads the way with 19 homeruns and 56 RBI’s, but last year’s MVP Michihiro Ogasawara is struggling with .255 avg, and star outfielder Yoshinobu Takahashi has missed time with injuries. If those two guys get going, expect the Giants to heat up. The Giants’ pitching hasn’t been stellar so far, but that could change if MLB-bound Koji Uehara returns from his injuries in top form.

Hiroshima Carp
Marty Brown’s team has managed to hover around .500 despite the loss of ace Hiroki Kuroda to the Dodgers, and top batter Takahiro Arai to the Hanshin Tigers. Former MLB’er Colby Lewis has taken the Central League by storm in his first season, so far going 10-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 110 K’s and leading the league in wins, strikeouts, and innings. The lineup is pretty weak, though there are a few bright spots in Shigenobu Shima and Alex Ochoa. If Hiroshima can manage to stay in contention for a top three finish that’ll be a huge boost going into their new stadium (link in Japanese), which opens next season.

Yakult Swallows
Yakult is in rebuilding mode with the recent losses of Akinori Iwamura (mlb), Kazuhisa Ishii (Seibu), Shingo Takatsu (Korea), Atsuya Furuta(retirement), and Alex Ramirez (Yomiuri). With the team developing younger players, it’s unrealistic to expect them to compete for a top three finish. Future MLB’er Norichika Aoki is having another good season with a .327 avg, and veteran shortstop Shinya Miyamoto collected his 1500th career hit earlier in the season. Masanori Ishikawa is having a breakout year on the mound, going 7-4 with a 2.08 ERA in 99 2/3 innings.

Yokohama BayStars
Yokohama is again the doormat of the Central League. The BayStars’ pitching staff is easily the worst in the league, with the only bright spots being starter Daisuke Miura, who is already talking about moving to Hanshin as a free agent; and relieve Hayato Terahara, who was inexplicibly moved to the bullpen after a strong performance as a starter last season. The lineup is weak as well, though outfielder Seiichi Uchikawa sports a .372 avg, and sluggers Yuuki Yoshimura and Shuichi Murata are among the league leaders with 15 and 16 homeruns respectively.

There’s more analysis available in this post at jhockey.wordpress.com.

Wayyyyyyyy more people read my article on Kyuji Fujikawa than I ever imagined would (thanks mlbtraderumors.com!), but I have to admit that I felt a little conflicted in writing it. I’m fan of Japanese baseball and a big fan of Kyuji’s team, the Hanshin Tigers. As such I’m not crazy about the idea of him leaving, and I’m certainly no fan of the perception that Japanese baseball is dying because some of it’s stars have moved to MLB.

A lot has been written about the perceived fall of the Japanese leagues since star players began migrating to MLB — here’s a recent piece from Bloomberg.com. This piece is the typical stuff about how the exodus of established Japanese stars is drawing attention away from NPB and hurting the game in Japan. This particular article makes some good points and is generally worth reading, but I don’t quite agree with the conclusion it draws.

Overall, I think the trend of top Japanese players moving to MLB is a positive one. Japanese players proving that they can compete at the MLB level validates the quality of NPB. There’s almost an expectation amont the fans that the top guys will try their hand at NPB at some point. Daisuke Matsuzaka, for example, forgoing a chance to play in America would have been a big letdown for the fans.

This Bloomberg.com report that I link to above cites a big drop in interest in the Yomiuri Giants following the departure of Hideki Matsui. What the writer leaves out is that this was actually good for competitive parity. Yomiuri rivals the Hanshin Tigers and Chunichi Dragons have both been winning and popular with fans over the last five years or so. I can’t quantify that with profit, attendance or TV numbers, but it feels like things balance out.

Baseball is still a tremendously popular sport in Japan. The MLB stars obviously get tons of media coverage,  NPB games are pretty well attended, and the Koshien National High School Tournament is a hugely popular event. NPB management still has issues with how it markets itself and it operates as a business, but I fully expect it to live on and thrive. Japan has a great league with great rivalries, drama, and competition. If the loss of some star players forces NPB to act on implementing reforms, then it will be even more positive for the fans.

Speaking as a fan, I think it’s inevitable that Kyuji Fujikawa will take a shot at playing in MLB. I’ll be sad to see him leave Hanshin, but I’d rather see him go for it than shy away, and I’d rather see him pitch in America than join another team in Japan.

Baseball Prospectus has posted an interview with Royals manager (and former Nippon Ham manager) Trey Hillman in their free section. Here’s a link.

If I had to pick a guy from Japan to take on a MLB team, I’d have to go with Yu Darvish. But if I didn’t want to shell out the bucks for Darvish, Hanshin Tigers closer Kyuji Fujikawa would be my pick.

Kyuji hasn’t gotten the same level of media attention as Darvish has, for good reason — he’s older (28), he’s a relief pitcher, he suffered from injuries early in his career, and he hasn’t played for a Japan Series winner yet. But Kyuji is in the fourth year of probably the most dominant run for a relief pitcher in NPB history. And given that NPB relief pitchers have a solid track record of MLB success, Kyuji might be a little bit of a safer bet anyway.

Numbers

Kyuji’s numbers are pretty mindblowing. This season, he’s 2-1, with a 0.88 era and 23 saves. But Kyuji’s trademark is his ability to strike guys out, and he ranks ninth overall in the Central League with 50 K’s. In 30 innings. For comparison’s sake, the eight guys that are ahead of him are all starters and have pitched at least 65 innings. Kyuji’s strikeout numbers have been amazing for the last four years:

Other achievements include a 47 2/3 inning shutout streak in 2006, and tying the Japan record with 46 saves last season.

Tools

Kyuji’s primary weapon is a hard fastball with a rising action (looks like a 4-seamer). He usually sits at 92-93 but can gun it up to 95 on occasion. He also has a forkball with a sharp break that throws infrequently. Kyuji isn’t afraid of challenging batters and misses a lot of bats.

Future

Kyuji requested to be posted to be the major leagues last off-season but his request was summarily denied by Hanshin’ management, who stated he was too important to the team’s competitiveness. Three major leaguers have come from Hashin: Tsuyoshi Shinjo, Keiichi Yabu, and Kei Igawa. Of the three, only Igawa was posted and according to Hanshin’s management he was an extreme exception (sports-navi, in Japanese). Injuries cost Kyuji roster time early in his career, so he won’t reach free agency for 3-4 more years. If he’s coming to MLB any time soon, it will be via the posting system. What happens next will depend on what Hanshin values more highly: the $10-15MM posting fee Kyuji is likely to attract, or having him on the team for 3-4 more years.

Kyuji Fujikawa on YouTube (in Japanese):

Fujikawa’s Fastball

Kyuji vs Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, May 2008

Kyuji vs Kevin Youklis (starts 30sec in)

According to Nikkan Sports (Japanese), Shingo Takatsu has signed a deal to pitch for the Woori Heroes in the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO). Shingo had signed a minor league deal with the Cubs, but was released during spring training.

I kind of thought Shingo was washed up before he joined the White Sox a few years ago and he proved me wrong, at least for a season. Here’s hoping he has a little more left to contribute in Korea.