NPB Tracker

The idea that the Chiba Lotte Marines would post Tsuyoshi Nishioka has been a bit of a head scratcher for me. I get why Nishioka would want to be posted, but it makes little sense for the Marines, as he’s coming off a big year, has three years left before free agency, and doesn’t project to command a huge posting bounty. And just as a general observation, postings are talked about a lot more often than they actually happen.

Then I read yesterday in Sanspo that Lotte made a conditional agreement last offseason to allow Nishioka to move to MLB. Sanspo didn’t offer any hints as to what those conditions might be, but it’s pretty likely that they were met, as Lotte won the Japan Series, and Nishioka had the best year of his career by nearly every measure. If Sanspo’s report is accurate, it would explain why the first news reports of the Nishioka posting were seemingly sourced from Lotte’s front office. It would also make a Nishioka posting a lot more likely. Another interesting point is that Nishioka was apparently moved to tears by the fans chanting his name in the 9th inning of Saturday’s Japan-Korea Club Championship.

The Sanspo report says that Lotte and Nishioka plan on coming to a resolution by the 17th (JST), so it won’t be long before we know one way or another.

Sports Hochi had reported that Yakult closer Chang-Yong Lim is close to a deal to return to the Yoyogi area of Tokyo. Here’s what his agent had to say: “We’ve arrived at an agreement (on terms). It’s not 100% but we’re 90% there. They’ve rated these last three years very highly.” It’s said to be a three year deal worth a total of 1.2 bn yen (about $15m at the current exchange rate), so Lim will join Kyuji Fujikawa and Hitoki Iwase among Japan’s most highly paid pitchers. This also means that Lim will be off the market, so Yomiuri will need to find a different replacement for Marc Kroon.

Alright, here we go.

Hanshin is hanging on to pitcher Randy Messenger. The news that Hanshin wants keep him broke over the weekend, and I heard from a reliable source on Monday that the two sides have agreed to terms for next season. Messenger didn’t light up the Central League in year one, but he’ll remain in the picture for both bullpen and rotation innings in 2011.

In the same Sanspo piece, it was reported that Taiwanese righty Kai-Weng Jeng has agreed to a deal for next season that will pay him 10m yen. Jeng signed out of a Taiwanese college in 2009.

In older news, Hanshin announced a few weeks ago that they will not offer Casey Fossum a contract for 2011. No word yet on Jason Standridge.

• Lotte takes a 2-1 lead: http://www.npbtracker.com/data/ #
• Agent Don Nomura calls the Yankees a dark horse for Iwakuma bidding: http://twitter.com/#!/donnomura/status/29351240818 #
• Chunichi evens Japan Series at 2-2: http://www.npbtracker.com/data/ #
• Reports in the Japanese media indicate that the Angels don't plan on offering H. Matsui a contract http://bit.ly/bCDXPH #
• A little starstruck at being followed by @KeithOlbermann #
• I heartily approve of the Twitter handle of follower #999: @orixbw51 #
• Nippon Ham picked up Wirfin Obispo from Yomiuri. Nice move for the Fighters. #
• Source: Rasner Re-ups With Rakuten: According to a reliable baseball source, Darrell Rasner has agreed to terms … http://bit.ly/d0MRm9 #
• Bidding has closed on Iwakuma, with more than 1 team submitting a bid. Rakuten has 'til the 11th to accept the high bid http://bit.ly/aZ1tsJ #
• ahh, baseball @yb_official http://twitpic.com/34awqh in reply to yb_official #
• A tie in the Nippon Series: http://www.npbtracker.com/data/ #
• Randy Messenger will be back with Hanshin next year: http://bit.ly/9BNVUE #
• Iwakuma Update: So I’ve already tweeted, the bidding portion of Hisashi Iwakuma’s posting process has come to a … http://bit.ly/afEY3e #
• Found a little NHK blurb saying that Rakuten is going to accept the bid for Iwakuma. http://bit.ly/bdiyFb #
• Nikkan Sports suggests the high bid for Iwakuma could exceed $16m. We'll see if that turns out to be accurate. http://bit.ly/9BOsmi #
• Congrats to the Chiba Lotte Marines on taking the Japan Series 4-2-1! #

So I’ve already tweeted, the bidding portion of Hisashi Iwakuma’s posting process has come to a conclusion. All that’s been reported so far is that more than one team submitted a bid, but the rumor is that the Mariners put in $13m.

Rakuten has until the 11th to decide whether or not to accept the bid, but I doubt it will take them that long to announce their decision. My guess is that they had already decided how much they are willing to accept, and will make an announcement within a day or two of the Japan Series ending. Early on in this process Rakuten had suggested they wouldn’t accept a bid that was too low. Nikkan Sports had speculated that Rakuten would want 1.5bn yen, which I mistakenly tweeted as Rakuten hoping for $16-17m. Lazy Twitter reporting at its finest; this was Nikkan Sports’ own speculation, and 1.5bn yen is actually about $18.5m at today’s rate.

I’ve been following Ken Rosenthal’s updates on Iwakuma, and he has the Mariners, Rangers and A’s in on the bidding.Seattle’s involvement has been widely reported, and the Rangers’ bid comes as no surprise to me. Texas employs Pacific scout Jim Colborn, and has been in on most of the big pitchers to come out of Japan, including Daisuke Matsuzaka, Junichi Tazawa, and Yusei Kikuchi (though Kikuchi ultimately stayed home). Oakland makes sense as they have Ben Sheets and Eric Chavez coming off the books, and Iwakuma would do well in the Colliseum. And although this isn’t exactly corroborated information, I’ll add that Iwakuma’s agent Don Nomura tweeted that he dreamed that the Diamondbacks on November 4th.

For everything else on Iwakuma, I’ll refer back to my FanGraphs post on him from last month.

According to a reliable baseball source, Darrell Rasner has agreed to terms with the Rakuten Golden Eagles on a contract for next season. My source indicated that it’s a one-year deal with a team option for 2012. I spoke with Rasner’s agent, Matt Sosnick of Sosnick Cobbe Sports, and he was able to confirm the agreement.

Rasner bounced back from a rough debut season to put up 152.2 serviceable innings in 2010. With the impending loss of ace Hisahi Iwakuma, Rakuten will look to Rasner to provide stability as a mid-rotation innings eater.

Edit: The game was in Nagoya. I must have been worn out when I wrote this.

In my grand tradition of starting a post and then taking forever to finish it, I’m wrapping this up in just the nick of time.

So this year’s Nippon Series opens later today (JST) in Nagoya Chiba, weather permitting. I’ve given the matchup a good look and I’m ready to share my pick.

Starting Rotation

Lotte’s ace, Yoshihisa Naruse, is good but home run prone. Number two starter Yuki Karakawa is supposed to come back for the Series, but after two long disruptions this season it’s hard to know what to expect from him. The next three starters, Shunsuke Watanabe, Bill Murphy and Hayden Penn are all capable of having good games,

Chunichi leads off with lefty ace Wei-Yin Chen, who is a contract in styles to Naruse. Kazuki Yoshimi (a personal favorite of mine) and Kenichi Nakata are both solid pitchers who struggled to absorb innings this year, though that shouldn’t come into play in a short series. No 4 man Daisuke Yamai has eight innings of Chunichi’s 2007 Nippon Series perfect game to his name. A fifth option, Maximo Nelson, was effective in the nine starts he got this season, but he could be used in the bullpen.

Edge: I prefer Chunichi’s starters, but it’s a bit closer than I originally perceived.

Bullpen

Hiroyuki Kobayashi made a successful transition to the ‘pen in 2010 for Lotte, and leads a solid bullpen that features four pitchers who appeared in at least 57 games in 2010. Yasuhiko Yabuta posted solid numbers in his return to Japan, though nine home runs in 65.2 innings of work is problematic for a reliever. Yoshihiro Itoh (64.2 IP, 3.58 ERA) and lefty Takuya Furuya (55.2, 2.91) round out the group.

Chunichi’s bullpen is led by longtime closer Hitoki Iwase, but the real relief ace in 2010 was Takuya Asao. The hard-throwing Asao appeared in 72 games, threw 80.1 innings, posted a 12-3 record and 1.68 ERA, and set an NPB record with an astonishing 59 “hold points” (holds + relief wins). Masafumi Hirai had one of his good years in 2010, and Akifumi Takahashi posted perhaps the best numbers of any lefty reliever in the Central League this season. Nelson will provide extra depth if he doesn’t start.

Edge: Chunichi has a big advantage here.

Lineup

Lotte’s run production was tops in the Pacific League, with 708 Marines crossing the plate in 2010. They did it with a remarkably balanced lineup. While Lotte only had one player top 20 home runs (Kim Tae-Gyun at 21), they had eight players who hit at least 10. Lotte scored by keeping runners on base: Tsuyoshi Nishioka (.423) and Tadahito Iguchi (.412) finished 2nd and 3rd in the Pacific League in OBP. Among their regulars, Shoitsu Ohmatsu had the worst OBP at .339, and even that was good enough for 21st in the Pacific League.

Chunichi has more of a “three-run home run” kind of lineup, with a menacing mid-order presence in Kazuhiro Wada, the steady bat of Masahiko Morino, and a proven power threat in Tony Blanco. After that, they’ve got slap-hitting top-order man Masahiro Araki and not much else.

Edge: Lotte. They are simpler better one through nine.

The Verdict

I’m saying Chunichi in six games. I think they have enough hitting to hang around, and the pitching to ice leads when they get them.

• today's NPB game: http://www.npbtracker.com/data/ #
• It's foggy and a little chilly 20 miles down the peninsula from San Francisco #
• Got to keep Lorenzo Barcelo in the news @Soldevila Rotacion de las Aguilas para el inicio de la temporada Lorenzo Barceló #
• Looks like Seibu is not going to post Nakajima: http://bit.ly/a2VNQO (links to Sanspo) #
• Quote #1 on Nakaji: "if there's a hope we'll talk about it, but we want to aim for a championship next year" (Seibu owner Goto) #
• Quote #2 on Nakaji: "Our team's direction will be as the owner says" (team director Maeda) #
• only Sanspo has the Nakajima news so far, so it's something to keep an eye on. #
• I shared a few thoughts with Angels blog Halo Heaven for this post: http://bit.ly/9axdAt #
• Today's NPB game: http://www.npbtracker.com/data/. Chunichi has a 3-0 lead in the CL Climax Series #
• a comment thread on mlbtr reminded me of my roots today. I re-told the story in an interview a few years ago. http://bit.ly/aE0qRn #
• non-baseball awesomeness: http://pinktentacle.com/2010/09/japanese-cityscapes-with-monster-sized-wildlife/ #
• hmm, these are road unis: http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lafd7u03ce1qcptzxo1_r1_500.jpg #
• Today's npb game: Yomiuri stays alive: http://www.npbtracker.com/data/ #

A thread on one of my favorite social news sites about gladiators inspired me to read up on the subject in Wikipedia. There, I found this:

Gladiatorial games, usually linked with beast shows, spread throughout the Republic and beyond.^[45] Anti-corruption laws of 65 and 63 BCE attempted but signally failed to curb their political usefulness to sponsors.^[46] Following Caesar’s assassination and the civil war, Augustus assumed Imperial authority over the games, including munera, and formalised their provision as a civic and religious duty.^[47] His revision of sumptuary law capped private and public expenditure on munera – claiming to save the Roman elite from the bankruptcies they would otherwise suffer – and restricted their performance to the festivals of Saturnalia and Quinquatria.^[48] Henceforth, the ceiling cost for a praetor‘s “economical” but official munus of a maximum 120 gladiators was to be 25,000 denarii ($500,000). “Generous” Imperial ludi might cost no less than 180,000 denarii ($3.6 million).^[49][50] Throughout the Empire, the greatest and most celebrated games would now be identified with the state-sponsored Imperial cult, which furthered public recognition, respect and approval for the Emperor, his law, and his agents.^[51] Between 108 and 109 CE, Trajan celebrated his Dacian victories using a reported 10,000 gladiators (and 11,000 animals) over 123 days.^[52] The cost of gladiators and munera continued to spiral out of control. Legislation of 177 CE by Marcus Aurelius, which did little to stop it, was completely ignored by his son, Commodus.^[53]

Obviously the difference is that the gladiators were being purchased as slaves and not paid these amounts. But even 2000 years ago, we had sports budgets spinning out of control, and rules to curtail them which were subsequently ignored.

I’ve been deliberately waiting to weigh in on the Yu Darvish rumors until information from credible, on-the-record sources emerges. With the exception of Nippon Ham manager Masataka Nashida saying that he wanted to keep Darvish, we have only had reports citing anonymous “persons familiar with the situation”.

Until now. Darvish himself has come out and addressed the rumors on his blog. I’ve translated the post in its entirety below:

Things are being said about the Majors.

I’ve received a lot of comments on my blog and Twitter, but I don’t know if everyone’s predictions are on the mark or what.

Next year…

I’ll be wearing a Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters uniform.

And here’s the original Japanese. I don’t think Darvish will mind me publishing it here.

メジャーどうこう言われています。

ブログやTwitterにもたくさんのコメント頂きましたが、皆さんの予想が合ってるかどうかわかりませんが。

来年は…

北海道日本ハムファイターズのユニフォーム着ていますよ(^^)

So there we have it. Those rumors will have to wait for another offseason.