Darvish Reaction

» 19 December 2011 » In mlb prospects, nichibei, npb »

The suspense is finally over, and we know that the rights to negotiate with Yu Darvish are the exclusive property of the Texas Rangers, at least for the next 30 days.

I’m too lazy to actually write a paragraph so here are some thoughts in handy bulleted list format.

  • I’m a little surprised that Texas cracked the Daisuke Matsuzaka line with their $51.7m bid, but not surprised that they only surpassed it by a little. I always found the rationale that “Matsuzaka got $51m, Darvish is better, therefore… $60m for Darvish?” to be simple minded.
  • I think Darvish will sign with the Rangers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t.
  • One perhaps underrated adjustment for Darvish to make (assuming he signs): the Rangers are two time zones away from the rest of their division. The entire country of Japan fits in one time zone.
  • I wonder if the Fighters will sign a foreign starter to take Darvish’s roster spot. Seibu forgettably signed Jason Johnson to replace Matsuzaka.
  • Nippon Ham’s risky pick of Tomoyuki Sugano, and subsequent failure to sign, in this year’s draft looms a bit here. Having him around would have cushioned the blow of (probably) losing Darvish a bit.

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  1. Patrick
    20/12/2011 at 1:23 am Permalink

    Yeah, it stings here in Tor. What doesn’t make sense is all the rumours saying Toronto in the lead, when in this process there is no such thing, there’s supposedly only one bid per team. Supposedly, Wed eve, MLB knows who the high bidder is. That shouldn’t change over 3 days. What might’ve happened, but we’ll never know, is that Tor may have been the high bidder but either Nippon Ham thought it wasn’t enough, or Darvish said no to Canada, and MLB quietly allowed Tex to “re-bid” and end up on top. Doesn’t make any sense otherwise, American media never hypes a Canadian team, yet all the leaks bizarrely pointed to Toronto, then suddenly one day before the “deadline” it’s Texas. If the NBA can fix it so Patrick Ewing goes to the Knicks then anything can happen. Poetic justice if for some reason Darvish doesn’t sign.

  2. Patrick
    20/12/2011 at 2:00 am Permalink

    Pretty fascinating really. This 30 day window might hamstring Hokkaido a little; forcing them to wait and see if a new starter is needed. If there is one, they already have foreign players Keppel, Wolfe, Sledge, and Yang. I’m not sure there is really room to add anyone. If this had played out sooner, maybe they would have had a chance at a Hoashi, but I doubt it. There’s not really much else out there.

  3. Patrick
    20/12/2011 at 2:11 am Permalink

    Yikes moving from pitcher friendly Sapporo Dome with great defence behind him and facing weaker hitters, to a hitter’s park in Texas against tougher competition. His performance in domes is better than outdoors too.

  4. Patrick
    20/12/2011 at 3:40 am Permalink

    At least pitching in the AL West he will pitch often in Oakland and Seattle. They are good pitchers parks. I think the Angels stadium is pretty fair as well.

  5. Patrick
    Michael Westbay
    20/12/2011 at 6:46 am Permalink

    I always wondered if the “Darvish is better so $60m” train of thought didn’t take the depreciation of the U.S. dollar into account. So in yen, it’s still a great deal lower.

  6. Patrick
    20/12/2011 at 10:29 am Permalink

    I always wondered if the “Darvish is better so $60m” train of thought didn’t take the depreciation of the U.S. dollar into account. So in yen, it’s still a great deal lower.

    When people in the North American press/blogosphere say that, they aren’t taking the exchange rate into consideration. People seem thrown off sometimes when I mention that in interviews.

  7. Patrick
    John Boy
    20/12/2011 at 1:54 pm Permalink

    @torontokidsmd that is the silliest conspiracy theory I have ever heard. Texas GM Jon Daniels is known for his stealthness. They were not on the radar for Beltre last year and he signs with them. Leaks and rumors are just that. It was leaked that Toronto posted between 40 to 50 million. The Rangers never hinted where they were. Yet they slowed down their pursuit of other pitchers in trade talks. Then you hear Toronot almost got Latos. I think Toronto knew they had a lower bid when reports were out that it surpassed Dice-k. Toronot made a very competitive bid. Texas bid more. It is a gamble but well worth it. Texas is not supposed to be in on Fielder. I doubt they are, but watch out..

  8. Patrick
    Billy D
    20/12/2011 at 6:37 pm Permalink

    “Exchange rate”? I don’t know why would Daniels, TEX GM, really worry about that. Even with minor inflation (3% every year between 2006 and 2011 in America), we are talking about a time now with significant economic blow, when families of four+ won’t visit ballparks every month like they used to.

    Viva Japan.

  9. Patrick
    21/12/2011 at 1:00 pm Permalink

    I’ve been hearing a lot recently that the Yankees bid $20m. There must be some mistake in these reports, since each team can only submit one bid and the other MLB teams don’t know who submitted a bid and for how much. I don’t see how the Yankees submitting such a low bid makes sense. Everyone knew that he would go for over $20m and it’s not like the bids are non-refundable. If the Yankees were going to do that, then why even bother?

    What is the point of submitting an unrealistically low bid with no hope of getting a player, when no other team knows whether you’ve submitted a bid or not? It just doesn’t make any sense.

  10. Patrick
    21/12/2011 at 1:45 pm Permalink

    It makes some sense. It sounds like the Yankees were making a low bid in case the other teams got cold feet. The market seems to be conservative towards NPB players this offseason so it was a reasonable bet to make.