My Prediction (Guess) For Darvish

» 14 December 2011 » In mlb, mlb prospects, nichibei »

Update December 19: Nailed it.

No inside information, no sources, nothing but a pure guess here… I think the two top bids will be the Yankees and the Rangers, with the Rangers coming out ahead.

I thought that MLB clubs would be a little more cautious with Darvish than they were with Daisuke Matsuzaka, but that doesn’t seem to have been the case. The real drama, however, begins next week.

Edit: the Rangers fans on Twitter seem to be enjoying this. Remember, it’s a guess guys.


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  1. Patrick
    14/12/2011 at 11:20 pm Permalink

    I bet nothing will happen in the first 20 days of the 30-day window.

  2. Patrick
    14/12/2011 at 11:30 pm Permalink

    I bet Don Nomura is kept under a strict gag order.

  3. Patrick
    15/12/2011 at 12:00 am Permalink

    I bet he wears a Nippon Ham uniform next season.

  4. Patrick
    Jeff Hainey
    15/12/2011 at 12:07 am Permalink

    If it’s a “sky-high” bid, it could be the Rangers who may well be taking a page from the A’s (Iwakuma 2011). They know that the Yanks and Red Sox stand in their way on their march to the World Series and that the Angels have a lot of knew Cable television money to throw around. They could figure on lowballing Darvish into either accepting a reasonable combination of contract/posting or he goes back to Japan where he can’t hurt them.

  5. Patrick
    15/12/2011 at 12:38 am Permalink

    You only need a couple of bullish teams in the bidding to bring up the bidding price. Even in a blind bid, if one bullish team thinks another is bullish, that should be enough.

    Darvish still has some years before FA, so I can picture a lowballing scenario, and the teams try again next year.

  6. Patrick
    Jeff Hainey
    15/12/2011 at 1:01 am Permalink

    The posting process is already outdated. The A’s never intended to sign Iwamura, as much as they wanted the other West Coast teams to miss out. They should let the player set the salary/years prior to the posting. Then the winning team’s bid is given to the Japanese owner. The Japanese club decides whether the bid is high enough, and whether to accept. The player gets a salary he thought would sell overseas, the Japanese club gets the money they feel works, and the American team that wanted the player the most ends up with the a happy player leaving a happy foreign team.

  7. Patrick
    15/12/2011 at 7:10 am Permalink

    Boo. Go Toronto!

  8. Patrick
    15/12/2011 at 7:25 am Permalink

    I don’t see the Jays as getting him and reports out of Texas are that the Rangers may not have as much money as everyone thought. I could see the Nats or Cubs bidding a ton of money to try and get him. Washington has a young rotation that needs help and money to spend. They’ve already proven that they can really throw money around with Jayson Werth. This being said, I still see the Rangers as the favorites, just because everything is up in the air right now. I’m still hoping for the Yankees though…

  9. Patrick
    Dan Koch
    15/12/2011 at 11:06 am Permalink

    Speaking of obstructionism in the posting process, is there anything preventing a team from bidding $500 MM to win, and then offering to play the player ten cents a game? Do they have to place a percentage of the posting fee in an escrow account?

  10. Patrick
    15/12/2011 at 12:06 pm Permalink

    I would have to think that there’s a good faith clause/agreement as part of the process. It’s interesting that most of the flaws people point out in the posting system involve bad faith negotiations.

  11. Patrick
    16/12/2011 at 11:43 am Permalink

    Looks like the Nationals didn’t bid on Darvish and the Blue Jays are the favorites.

    …Looks like I was WAY off…