NPB Tracker

After a rough start to the season, the Orix Buffaloes have clawed their way to a .500 record and into contention a playoff spot. So far, they’ve followed the same path that they took last: making up for a bad start by beating up on Central League teams in interleague play, then continuing to hover around respectability. So far they’re three games over .500 since returning to league play.

Orix has so far posted the worst ERA in the Pacific League, though not by much (3.28 to Seibu’s 3.25). That’s not terribly surprising, but going into the season, I really liked Orix’s rotation options. I saw a lot of question marks, but plenty of depth and a lot of upside as well. A couple of the question marks have come up positive, most notably Hayato Terahara and Alfredo Figaro, but Orix’s bad pitchers have been the worst in the Pacific League. Check out these numbers:

• Satoshi Komatsu — 0.1 IP, 5 ER
• Tatsuya Kajimoto — 1.1 IP, 3 ER
• Masahide Kobayashi — 4.2 IP, 7 ER
• Masato Nishikawa — 3 IP, 4 ER
• Evan MacLane — 2.1 IP, 2 ER
• Kazuya Takamiya — 6.1 IP, 5 ER
• Hiroshi Kisanuki — 43 IP, 27 ER (32 R)

Add it all up and these seven pitchers have surrendered 53 earned runs over 61 innings pitched, which works out to an ugly 7.82 ERA, and over a fifth of Orix’s team total.The non-Kisanuki members of the group have an even more jarring 13.00 ERA over 18 innings of work, though to be fair, none of them has gotten much of a look. And to be intellectually honest, even if we took these 61 innings away and replaced them with scoreless innings, Orix would still be a ways off Nippon Ham and Softbank in terms of run prevention.

So, what happens next? Over the road back to respectability, Orix seems to have found a bullpen that works a bit better, as most of the guys from my bullet point list haven’t seen any recent game action. Kisanuki pitches on the 11th, so we’ll see if he has any bounce-back in him season. Chihiro Kaneko and Kazuki Kondo have both missed time with injuries this season, but are back now. Chan Ho Park was had some rough spots early in the season, has good enough stuff to compete in Japan. He’s currently out with a torn muscle and is expected back around the All-Star break. It looks like there is enough here to keep things interesting, even if they probably won’t contend for a title.

Coming: Hayato Terahara, Chan Ho Park, Seung Yeop Lee, Mike Hessman, Alfredo Figaro, Evan MacLane, Kazuya Takamiya, Shinjiro Koyama, Tomochika Tsuboi, Kentaro Kuwabara, Shingo Nonaka, Masahide Kobayashi, Toshio Saito

Going: Alex Cabrera, Shogo Yamamoto, Go Kida, Jon Leicester, Greg LaRocca, Fernando Seguignol, Freddie Bynum, Tsuyoshi Kikuchihara, Naoyuki Ohmura, Osamu Hamanaka, Masahiro Nagata, Ikki, Mitsuhiro Mitsuhara

Staying: Aarom Baldiris, Mitsutaka Gotoh, Francisco Caraballo, So Taguchi, Freddy Ballestas

Summary: Last season, Orix posted a surprisingly competitive fifth-place, 69-71-4 season. I’ve written plenty about my admiration for Orix’s personnel moves, and nothing has happened this offseason to change my mind. Well, the new uniforms are underwhelming, but I’ll let that slide.

On the mound, Orix has added four rotation candidates, while subtracting Yamamoto, who was ineffective in 2010. Each of the four new starters has blemishes: age (Park), health (Terahara), unproven-ness (Figaro, MacLane). But they all have upside as well, particularly Terahara, and if any one of them does well, Orix will have a very solid front rotation.

At the plate, Orix’s most notable transaction is the loss of slugger Cabrera, who wanted a two-year deal and found one in Fukuoka. Despite his age (39), Cabrera remains an elite NPB slugger when he is in the lineup — he posted a Pacific League-best .997 OPS last year, but missed 32 games. The hope is obviously for some combination of at-bats from Lee and Hessman to make up for Cabrera’s contribution, but I have my doubts. Lee hasn’t had a good year since 2007 and is a shadow of his former self, and Hessman has great power but is also known for piling up strikeouts. I’ve been bullish on Hessman though, and I’m standing by that.

Another key point to make is that last year the Buffaloes got breakthrough performances from Gotoh, T-Okada, Aarom Baldiris and to a lesser extent, Makoto Moriyama. Orix will need them to post strong follow up seasons in order to remain competitive.

Overall I think Orix has done enough to take a step forward in 2011. The rub is that even if they do, the Pacific League is so balanced that they still might not make the playoffs.

First post of the new year is about… more pitchers signing with NPB teams.

• The Orix Buffaloes are set to acquire Cardinals lefty Evan MacLane, citing a need for a lefthanded rotation candidate. An official announcement is due early in the year. I noted the Buffaloes’ lack of lefty options when I looked at their group of starters last week. MacLane was on my list of foreign player candidates last year, on a tip from a Cardinals blogger.
• Yakult is working on bringing back Tony Barnette, who they had released earlier in the offseason following a rough year in Yoyogi.
• This last item is a little on the old side, but Softbank is bringing back DJ Houlton, who like Barnette was released after a difficult season. Houlton is taking a 50% pay cut to 50 million yen (about $600k).

There’s always a high turnover among foreign players in Japan. This year will be no different, with 30+ players already gone from their 2009 employers. By the end of next season, we’ll have seen 35-45 new players in Japan.

Like most years, the biggest needs around the league are corner outfielders, pitchers, and first basemen. There will be a couple third base and DH spots open as well.

This is mostly my own speculation. Some of the names came out of the Japanese media, but many have not, so take this list with a grain of salt.

Possible Returnees

• CJ Nitkowski – seemed like he had a deal to go back to Japan before Doosan snapped him up off waivers from SK
• Rick Guttormson – Orix is looking at bringing Gutto back from Korea; has an NPB no-hitter to his name
• Brad Thomas – Thomas has spent the last year or two in Korea, is on Hanshin’s list
• Gary Glover – Yet another NPB vet in Korea, Glover had previously pitched for Yomiuri
• Mitch Jones – didn’t get a chance in his stint with Nippon Ham, hit 35 home runs in the hitter-friendly PCL this year
• Val Pascucci – has been productive in three AAA seasons since returning from his stint with Chiba Lotte
• Buddy Carlyle – has been better with Atlanta than he was with Hanshin during the early 00’s
• Winston Abreu – lit up AAA again this year, got lit up in the majors; did well in his tenure with Lotte

Korean Imports

• Kim Dong-Ju – Lotte is reportedly ready to jump on a plan and sign this guy once the FA season opens
• Kim Tae-Gyun – Hanshin was scouting Korea over the summer, and this Kim was a name that showed up in reports
• Lee Beom-Ho– ditto for Lee

NPB Migrants

• Termel Sledge – won’t be back with Nippon Ham next year; Yokohama, SoftBank reportedly interested
• Greg LaRocca – has been productive when healthy, could get a shot somewhere else if Orix chooses not to retain his services
• Dan Johnson – batting average side, put in a productive year for Yokohama, still wasn’t retained
• Seth Greisinger – has put up three good years in Japan, may not fit into Yomiuri’s plans for next year; Hanshin would gladly take him
• Brian Sikorski – posted a great year for Lotte; if they don’t keep him, Yokohama is interested

4A Veterans

• Mike Hessman – tenured AAA slugger, doesn’t hit for average but walks and has a power bat
• Lenny DiNardo – coming off a great AAA season, has never been able to strike MLB hitters out
  
• Bobby Korecky – reliever with nothing left to prove at AAA
• Kevin Frandsen – doesn’t fit the power-hitting mold NPB teams usually like, but can play multiple positions and hit for average
• Matt Murton – another sharp hitter who has mastered AAA pitching
• Chris Shelton – has had two productive MLB seasons, continues to perform at AAA
• Brad Eldred – another veteran AAA slugger, though his average has dropped in the last few years
• Wily Mo Pena – I thought he was on his way to Japan when the Mets released him during the season
• Charlie Haeger – has come up on Hanshin’s list
• Rich Hill – he has a Japan-style curveball
• Jason Dubois – perhaps the most well-rounded of the AAA sluggers I’ve listed here, Dubois hits for reasonable average and gets on base, at least at AAA
• Scott Strickland – was good with the Expos a few years ago, hasn’t gotten another chance
• Evan MacLane – rumor is that he’s headed to Japan rather than resigning with the Cardinals

Fringey MLB Guys

• Marcus Thames – Hanshin was interested in him a few years ago, but Detroit held on to him and he played pretty well
• Eric Hinske – SoftBank was interested last year, and is again this year
  
• Chris Bootcheck – has the velocity to succeed in Japan
• Denny Bautista – another hard thrower who’s bounced between AAA and MLB

Who are some other good candidates?