NPB Tracker

Going with all Japanese articles for today’s bullet points, since I haven’t really read anything in English for the last couple of days.

Japanese Articles:

• A Japanese blogger has set up a site to protest Senichi Hoshino’s prospective involvement in next year’s World Baseball Classic. The movement seems to be spreading, as banners like this and this are beginning to appear elsewhere in the Japanese blogoshpere. Update: The campaign won’t have to continue on very long as Hoshino has already said he won’t accept the job if it’s offered.
• The Hiroshima Carp will be be wearing throwback uniforms from the team’s late 70’s/early 80’s golden age. Carp Blog has a pic and good graphics in general.
• Chunichi Dragons blog Negative Dragons reported that 2nd baseman Masahiro Araki will not excercise his right to become a free agent and stay in Nagoya. Sponichi reported the same news the following day. I’ve updated the 2009 NPB free agent list.
• At the risk of stoking the flames: scouts from six major league teams including the Yankees watched Yu Darvish shut down the Lions on Sept 9 (English Box Score courtesy of JapaneseBaseball.com). I guess this is what Gene Michael was doing in Japan. Sanspo re-iterated that “Darvish has not expressed any intent of going to MLB and is affectionate toward his team, but MLB teams won’t leave him alone“.
• Chunichi pitcher Hitoki Iwase become the first NPB closer to record four consecutive 30+ save seasons.

Question for bullet points readers: do you enjoy the Japanese content or the English content more? What topics do you find most interesting?

The consensus top three NPB free agents this upcoming off season are Koji Uehara, Kenshin Kawakami, and Hitoki Iwase. I’ve already written about Uehara and Kawakami, so today I’ll cover Chunichi Dragons closer Iwase.

Career Thus Far
Hitoki Iwawe is probably the most accomplished relief pitcher currently active in Japan. In his 10 professional seasons with the Dragons, he has a 2.02 ERA with 187 saves and 47-28 record. His peripherals are good as well: in 614 2/3 innings, he’s struck out 565 while walking 140 and allowing only 26 home runs.

Chunichi moved Iwase into the closer role in 2004 with the departure of Akinori Otsuka, and he immediately flourished. In 2005 he set a new NPB save record with 45, starting a run of three consecutive 40+ save seasons. That streak is unlikely to continue this year, as even though he has 27 saves so far, he’ll miss time to play in the Olympics. Overall he’s been a little more hittable this year, but still has a 2.87 ERA and 31/8 K/BB. JapaneseBaseball.com has Iwase’s stats through 2007 available in English, and you can find his stats to date in Japanese here.

2007 Japan Series
The defining moment in Iwase’s career was the deciding fifth game of the 2007 Japan Series. Dragons starter Daisuke Yamai had a perfect game through eight innings when manager Hiromitsu Ochiai controversially summoned Iwase to pitch the 9th. A nervous Iwase sent down the bottom of Nippon Ham’s lineup in order, keeping the perfect game intact and giving Chunichi it’s first Japan Championship since 1954.

You can watch Iwase’s perfect 9th inning on YouTube, or read Gary Garland’s excellent account of the game for more information.

Pitching
Iwase is a three-pitch guy, with a fastball, slider, and shuuto. He’s not going to overpower anyone with a  fastball that sits at about 89 MPH and doesn’t get much faster. That said, his fastball has movement and he spots it well. Iwase’s out pitch is his low 80’s slider, which has good movement and he’ll throw in any count. His third pitch is a shuuto, which he’s throwing more often this year, particularly to right handed hitters. Iwase pitches down in the zone and generally has good command.

I’ve scrounged some YouTube footage of Iwase striking out Yoshinobu Takahashi, not getting the call on a couple of sliders, and throwing fastballs and shuutos in the 2006 All Star game. Yes, that is Daisuke Matsuzaka coaching third base in the All Star game.

Contract Status & MLB Interest
Iwase is among the highest paid pitchers in Japan with his approximately $4.3M/year salary. He qualified for free agency following the 2007 season, but opted to sign a one-year contract to remain with Chunichi. There was speculation that he wanted to see how other Japanese relievers like Masa Kobayashi fare in the big leagues. I’ll also suggest that he wanted to spend another year pitching with his close friend Kenshin Kawakami, and that he wanted to represent Japan in the Olympics. This is purely speculation on my part.

The interest from the MLB side is there. Last year, Iwase drew public interest from the Rockies, Yankees, and White Sox. Sponichi reported earlier this year that the Mariners and Rangers had scouts at the Dragons’ spring training camp. Joel Sherman commented on Iwase during last year’s World Series.

For his part, Iwase seems to be less outspoken about leaving Japan than some of his NPB compatriots. His clearest comment I could find on the matter was “to say I’m not interested would be a lie”.

Synopsis
You’d have to go back to Kazuhiro Sasaki to find an NPB closer with better career numbers than Iwase. Iwase actually beats Sasaki in some categories, but Sasaki’s peak was better than Iwase’s (so far).

Despite the struggles of Yasuhiko Yabuta and Kazuo Fukumori, NPB import relievers have a pretty good track record of MLB success thanks to guys like Sasaki, Akinori Otsuka, Hideki Okajima, and Takashi Saito. That point, combined with Iwase’s achievements, seem to make him a reasonably safe bet for MLB success should he choose to come over. I think the key for him will be to mix up his stuff and not let MLB hitters sit on his fastball.

MlbTradeRumors.com has been kind enough to link to me several times, most recently from post about impending NPB free agents. Too bad I didn’t finish this over the weekend; if I had Tim could have included this profile of Chunichi Dragons ace Kenshin Kawakami as well.

Kawakami has, in my opinion, the most MLB potential of any of the upcoming NPB free agents. I expect to see him in an MLB uniform next season, based on public statements he’s made:

“Saying I don’t want to go would be a lie. As long as I’m playing baseball, it’s fine to aim high. I think it’s also fine to consider the future.”

“Because I like the Chunichi Dragons, I want to challenge myself to go to the Majors. My plan is to go to the Majors, gain experience there, and come back to the Nagoya in the end.”

These comments were made in a live talkshow event after the 2006 season, but I have no reason to think he’s changed his mind since then. It’s worth noting that former teammates Akinori Ohtsuka and Kosuke Fukudome have both had success at the MLB level, which might be a bit of a confidence-booster.

Career Path & Personal Accolades
Kawakami is not quite as decorated as Koji Uehara, but he’s close. Kawakami’s pro career started in 1998, went he went 14-6 and took the Rookie of the Year award. He then took a step back and went through some wilderness years between ‘99 and ‘01, but bounced back in 2002 with a 12-6 record and 2.35 ERA. He also threw a no-hitter in ‘02 against a Giants team that still featured Hideki Matsui.

The right hander has put in strong performances each year since then, including 2003 when he missed significant time with an injury. He won the Sawamura Award as Japan’s top pitcher as well as the Central MVP in 2004, when he went 17-7 with a 3.32 ERA in 192 IP. He was actually better in 2006, again going 17-7 but with 2.51 ERA in 215 IP. He lost out on the Sawamura that year to a dominant Kazumi Saitoh.

Other personal achievements include three Gold Gloves, two Best Nine Awards, two victory titles and one strikeout title. He also holds an NPB record with eight Monthly MVP awards, the most recent coming last month.

Kawakami is having another strong year (find his stats in English here) but will probably lose out on the Sawamura again, this time to Yu Darvish.

Winning
Kawakami’s Dragons won the Central League crowns in 1999, 2004, and 2006 and took the Japan Series in 2007. The 2007 Japan Championship was only second in team history, and the first since 1954. The ‘07 Japan Series ended in dramatic fashion; maybe I’ll write about that another time. For now I’ll point you to this Baseball Prospectus article (free for the week) and Marinerds, etc.

Stuff
Kawakami isn’t overpowering; his fastball tops out in the low 90’s. His control is good, though not quite as awe-inspiring as Koji Uehara’s. And his windup isn’t deceptive, like many Japanese pitchers. Kawakami gets by purely on quality stuff.

Kawakami’s featured pitch is a cut fastball, which, according to Wikipedia, is known as Japan’s finest among visiting MLB All-Stars. He also has a slow curve, which he throws at 65-70 MPH. The rest of his arsenal is fairly typical: fastball, shuuto, fork. He changes speeds pretty well, particularly between his curve and harder stuff.

I’ve selected some YouTube footage from Kawakami’s most recent appearance, Chunichi’s 2-1 loss to Hanshin on July 18. Kawakami took a no-decision, striking out 10 and allowing one earned run over 8.0 innings. 2nd inning, 3rd/4th inning, 8th inning, and just for fun, Kyuji Fujikawa’s appearance in the 9th (pt1/pt2).

Also of Note
For those of you that read Japanese, Kenshin maintains a blog here. He is close friends with Chunichi closer Hitoki Iwase, and will be joining him on Japan’s Olympic roster. Wikipedia mentions a friendly rivalry with Uehara — Uehara taught Kawakami his fork, while Kawakami returned the favor by teaching Uehara his cutter. Kawakami is also known as a gutsy player who is not afraid to show his emotions on the field.

Uehara’s stock has slipped some this season, so I think Kawakami has a chance to be the most highly sought after MLB import this off season. I would speculate that he can be a solid mid-rotation guy that you can win with at that MLB level.