NPB Tracker

And so, my 12th season as an NPB fan has come to a close. Here’s how it happened:

Game 6 – Chunichi wins, 2-1:

• Both starters, Kazuki Yoshimi and Tsuyoshi Wada, look tired. It’s been a long haul for them: like everyone else, they started camp in early February and experienced the delayed start to the season; but both also logged over 180 innings over the course of the year, plus three postseason starts each.
• The guest commentator for game six? Yu Darvish. He didn’t really say anything interesting, at least not that I noticed.
• Softbank started a better offensive lineup, with Hiroki Kokubo playing first base and Nobuhiko Matsunaka DHing. In the first two games at Yahoo Dome, Kokubo DHed while Shuhei Fukuda played first, with Matsunaka on the bench.
• There was a great Softbank Hawks commercial with the Hawks players hitting line drives to each other.
• Toru Hosokawa’s flyout in the third inning seemed like it would have been a home run with the old ball.
• Chunichi got all of their offense out of the way in the first inning, courtesy of a two-run Kazuhiro Wada triple. After that, they never mounted much of a threat.
• Softbank’s bats were equally lifeless, more so than in any game since their listless effort against Wei-Yin Chen in game one.
• Four of the seven games resulted in a final score of 2-1.
• I must admit… my notes are a little lacking from this one… so I must again turn to Michael Westbay’s write-up. Plus, he has a YouTube video of that commercial I mentioned.

So the day job kept me busy this week and I didn’t completely dissect these games or even take great notes, but I do have a few observations to share on the Nagoya leg of this year’s Nippon Series journey.

Game 3 – Softbank wins, 4-2:

• Moving Tadashi Settsu into the rotation was probably the smartest move Softbank made this season. He is, simply put, a good pitcher. He throws strikes and always seems to make the right pitch.
• Chunichi starter Maximo Nelson, on the other hand…. has a good arm but lacks Settsu’s polish. in Game three he seemed a little rough and let himself get into a lot of hitter’s counts.
• Hitoki Tamura, who I ruthlessly criticized for his lackluster at bats in games one and two, went 3-4 with a home run. So did catcher Toru Hosokawa.
• One of the fans in Softbank’s ouen-dan section kind of looked like Nagisa Arakaki.
• Softbank manager Koji Akiyama took it easy on the bunting in game three and was rewarded with 12 hits from his lineup, nine at the expense of Nelson.
• After taking losses in games one and two, Softbank closer Takahiro Mahara was benched in favor of Brian Falkenborg. Falkenborg spared Akiyama’s blood pressure by recording a save.

Game 4 – Softbank wins, 2-1:

• I’ll have to admit that while I watched this game, I didn’t play particularly close attention to it. Michael Westbay has a much better recap.
• Softbank got all the scoring they needed in the first. After allowing Softbank to string together a couple of singles and score a run, Chunichi starter Yudai Kawai induced a double play ball, but shortstop Masahiro Araki held on to his throw for too long and it skipped wide of first baseman Tony Blanco. This allowed Softbank’s second run to score and that was all they would need.
• The hero for Softbank was corkscrewing lefty reliever Masahiko Morifuku, who bailed starter DJ Houlton out of a no-out, bases loaded jam in the 6th. Morifuku is a lot of fun to watch.
• Falky recorded a six-out save in this one.

Game 5 – Softbank wins, 5-0:

• Wei Yin Chen showed better velocity in Game 5 than he did in the series opener, but overall wasn’t nearly as good. He wasn’t particularly sharp with his breaking stuff and didn’t even throw it much, and worked up in the zone with his fastball. Overall he was a lot more hittable. He got singled to death in the 7th and 8th innings, but he was throwing pitches that Softbank’s hitters could make contact with.
• Possibly the head-scratching-est move of the Series was made by Ochicai in the 8th. With the bases loaded and none out, Ochiai pulled Chen in favor of reliever Junichi Kawahara. Removing Chen was the right move, why bring in retread Kawahara instead of bullpen ace Takuya Asao? Chunichi was down 2-0 at that point, but still. Kawahara was on the mound for Softbank’s next three runs, all charged to Chen.
• Motonobu Tanishige finished the game 0-4 and has still gotten hit safely in the Nippon Series.
• Masaaki Koike left the game in the top of the fourth, after making a great, wall-crashing catch on a long fly ball off the bat of Nobuhiro Matsuda.
• Softbank starter Hiroki Yamada comes close to violating NPB’s ban on two-stage deliveries with his double clutch windup. I don’t think I had previously seen him pitch this year. He wasn’t totally consistent with the double-clutch, but he did manage to keep Chunichi’s lineup quiet through six innings of work.
• The one bullet Yamada dodged was in 6th, when he surrendered a double to Araki and Kazuhiro Ibata pulled a hard line drive just foul down the third base line before bouncing out to Kawasaki at shortstop.
• Alex Cabrera looked awful yet again as a pinch hitter in the 7th.
• Settsu pitched an inning of relief in the 8th, after having started game three, and with a  5-0 lead Akiyama let Mahara mop up the 9th.

As usual, the NPB trade/player acquisition deadline passed with a whimper. There were, however, seven trades consummated over the course of the season, with the Seibu Lions and Yomiuri Giants being the most active on the market. Here’s a rundown.

Takuya Takahama to Lotte, from Hanshin as compensation for signing Hiroyuki Kobayashi — There were rumors that Lotte would wind up with a more established player; instead they got infield prospect Takahama. He’s hitting .215 at ni-gun. Verdict: not sure who else was available to Lotte but it appears they wound up with a very ordinary farmhand.

Naotaka Takehara to Orix, cash to Lotte — Orix has, by and large, done a good job at getting useful contributions out of castoffs from other places. Takehara has not been one of those moves, as the Buffaloes gave him just 16 at bats at the top level. Verdict: Lotte wins, cash and a roster spot for a guy they weren’t going to use.

Shinji Takahashi to Yomiuri, cash to Nippon Ham — Takahashi is once-productive contact-hitting catcher/first baseman who fell on hard times in 2010, and apparently found himself without a role in Hokkaido. Yomiuri seems to have acquired him with pinch hitting in mind, but so far that idea hasn’t panned out as Takahashi only has one hit in 13 at bats. He is, however, hitting well at ni-gun, so maybe he has something left. Verdict: nice buy-low opportunity Yomiuri. We’ll see where he fits in next year.

Takanori Hoshi to Seibu, cash to Yomiuri — This one makes some sense. Hoshi’s path to ichi-gun was effectively blocked by the presence of catchers Shinnosuke Abe and Kazunari Tsuruoka, and Yomiuri has pretty good catching depth at ni-gun. Meanwhile, Seibu is down a man, having lost Toru Hosokawa to free agency last offseason. Hoshi still appears to be the low man on Seibu’s catching totem pole, but he’ll have less blockage from the top levels. Perhaps more importantly to the media, it prevents the Hoshi from realizing his “Kyojin no Hoshi” destiny. Verdict: in theory this seems like a good idea for Seibu.

Chikara Onodera to Yakult, Yuji Onizaki to Seibu — Onodera is a righty reliever with a hard fastball who enjoyed several years of success toward the back of Seibu’s bullpen until falling down the depth chart last season, then off the radar completely this year. Perhaps in anticipation of losing shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima this offseason, Seibu took this opportunity to move him into urban Tokyo in exchange for infield farmhand Onizaki. Onodera got lit up and demoted at Yakult, while Onizaki has taken over as Seibu’s ni-gun starting shortstop. Verdict: instinctively I prefer this deal for Seibu, though Onizaki is 28 and I have to wonder how much upside he has left.

Hirotaka Egusa to Seibu, Haruki Kurose to Hanshin — Lefty reliever Egusa was a key cog in Hanshin’s excellent bullpen from 2005-2009, before seeing his effectiveness (and velocity) fade in 2010. Supplanted by newcomers like Daiki Enokida, Hanshin swapped him for utility infielder Kurose, who himself had been made redundant with Seibu’s acquisition of Onizaki. This trade was essentially the other half of the Onodera deal, which took place one day earlier. Seibu has been struggling all season to find regular bullpen contributors, so it made sense for them to take a chance on a guy like Egusa, but so far it hasn’t worked out. Egusa only got eight innings at ichi-gun, where he walked nine batters, though he’s been better at ni-gun. Verdict: can’t fault Seibu for trying.

Saburo Ohmura to Yomiuri, Takahito Kudo to Lotte — And in the only trade of the year involving at least one player capable of starting, Yomiuri grabbed Saburo in exchange for reserve OF Kudo. This one is a bit of a head-scratcher. Clearly Yomiuri wanted to inject some life into its lineup. Saburo was not a bad pickup, but he’s another outfielder on the wrong side of 35. Meanwhile, Lotte gets a player in Kudo who has never established an ability to play a large chunk of the season. Oddly, Lotte started Kudo several games immediately after acquiring him, indicating that the were interested in him as a starter. Verdict: talent for talent, a win for Yomiuri.

Coming: Seiichi Uchikawa, Alex Cabrera, Toru Hosokawa, Anthony Lerew, Soichi Fujita, Juan Deleon

Going: Kazumi Saito, Roberto Petagine, Arihito Muramatsu, JD Durbin, Beom-Ho Lee, Makoto Sato, Micheal Olmstead

Staying: Hitoshi Tamura, Brian Falkenborg, DJ Houlton, Jose Ortiz

Summary: Two years removed from a sixth-place finish, in 2010 the Softbank Hawks rode Seibu’s late-September swoon to the Pacific League crown. For an encore, they’ve added more star power than any other NPB team this offseason.

The big additions are of the offensive variety: contact-hitting outfielder Seiichi Uchikawa, slugging first baseman Alex Cabrera, and glove-first catcher Toru Hosokawa. 2010 Pacific League MPV candidate Hitoshi Tamura was also retained on a one-year deal. Uchi and Cabu should improve a lineup, that despite having some talented hitters, was only the 4th most productive in the PL last seasoan. Cabu should fill at-bats that were mostly taken up by the departed Roberto Petagine and a rapidly-aging Nobuhiko Matsunaka, while Uchi’s presence will cause guys like Satoru Morimoto and Hiroshi Shibahara will find themselves on the bench more often. Durability is a bit of a question mark, as both Cabrera and Uchikawa have injury histories, and Cabrera, Matsunaka, and Hiroki Kokubo are all on the wrong side of 35. If any of them falters, though, the steady bat of Jose Ortiz is still on the roster.

On the mound, Softbank’s pitching staff was the second best at preventing runs in 2010. The Hawks’ pitching success was led by it’s bullpen. Softbank threw a league-high 16 shutouts last year, but the team’s starters only managed six complete games — seven fewer than the next lowest total, by Seibu. To that end, the re-signing of middle-relief ace Brian Falkenborg was critical. Softbank has two ace-caliber lefties at the top of its rotation in Toshiya Sugiuchi and Tsuyoshi Wada, but after that the quality drops a bit. Kenj Ohtonari has a good arm and looked like a third lefty ace back in 2008, but hasn’t been as productive over the last two seasons. Yet another lefty, 30 year-old Shinsuke Ogura, battled through 102 innings last year, but did so with a 5.29 ERA. DJ Houlton is back, but he followed up an extremely hit-lucky 2009 with a rough 2010. We’ll see which way things go in 2011. If new addition Anthony Lerew can pitch with as much flair as he grows facial hair, the Hawks will have something. Former ace Kazumi Saito has finally succumbed to injuries and retired, while the the once-excellent Nagisa Arakaki is still battling his way back. And this would be a great year for Sho Iwasaki or Shota Ohba to take a step forward, given that longtime ace Wada is headed for free agency after the season. There are a lot of question marks among the rotation candidates, but the glass is definitely half-full, thanks to the Hawk’s front-rotation stability and excellent bullpen.

Overall, this team has talent up and down its roster, and despite the competitiveness of the Pacific League, it’s hard to see them finishing outside the top three this season.

Coming: Yataro Sakamoto

Going: Toru Hosokawa, Koji Ohnuma, Kimiyasu Kudoh, Kenta Matsuzaka, Yoshihiro Doi, Shinji Taninaka

Staying: Hiroyuki Nakajima, Jose Fernandez, Dee Brown, Brian Sikorski, Alex Graman

Summary: This series is titled “Offseason Chages”, but the Lions haven’t given me much to write about. Seibu let defensively-minded catcher Toru Hosokawa take his .191 batting average south to Fukuoka, and will let Ginjiro Sumitani and Tatsuyuki Uemoto carry the load. They also swapped righty relievers with Yokohama, picking up Yataro Sakamoto. Beyond that, the Lions replaced some bit players with 2010 draftees.

The real keys Seibu’s offseason are in the players who will be returning. Denying Hiroyuki Nakajima’s repeated posting requests is addition by not subtracting. The rest is mostly addition by health. Slugger Takeya “Okawari-kun” Nakamura was never really healthy last year, but still popped 25 home runs. #2 starter Takayuki Kishi missed all of July and August last year. The low-profile but highly-productive bat of mid-season signing Jose Fernandez will be available from opening day. 2011 Sophomore Yusei Kikuchi lost a year of development, making only two ni-gun appearances . And even Alex Graman, who was lights-out as a reliever but has been shelved for two years, is back. Obviously some of those guys are going to contribute more than others, but healthy seasons from Kishi and Okawari-kun alone would add a couple wins to the bottom line.

The underlying fact is that this is a talented group that didn’t need much tweaking to remain competitive in 2011. The Lions took a magic number of four into the last week of the 2010 season, and won more games than anyone else in the Pacific League; if they had managed just one more tie, they would have taken first place. Just three games separated the first and fourth teams in the PL last year, and I expect things to be similarly tight this season.